It seems that this could be read as more restrictive than current policy. To 
make sure it isn't, we could do something like add the word "Alternatively," 
before "organizations may demonstrate a 24 month future projection" at the 
beginning of the newly added text. 

Scott

> On Mar 21, 2017, at 10:34 AM, ARIN <[email protected]> wrote:
> 
> On 16 March 2017, the ARIN Advisory Council (AC) accepted "ARIN-prop-237: 
> Clarify Slow Start for Transfers" as a Draft Policy.
> 
> Draft Policy text is below and can be found at:
> https://www.arin.net/policy/proposals/2017_1.html
> 
> You are encouraged to discuss all Draft Policies on PPML. The AC will 
> evaluate the discussion in order to assess the conformance of this draft 
> policy with ARIN's Principles of Internet Number Resource Policy as stated in 
> the Policy Development Process (PDP). Specifically, these principles are:
> 
> * Enabling Fair and Impartial Number Resource Administration
> * Technically Sound
> * Supported by the Community
> 
> The PDP can be found at:
> https://www.arin.net/policy/pdp.html
> 
> Draft Policies and Proposals under discussion can be found at:
> https://www.arin.net/policy/proposals/index.html
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Sean Hopkins
> Policy Analyst
> American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN)
> 
> 
> 
> Draft Policy ARIN-2017-1: Clarify Slow Start for Transfers
> 
> Date: 21 March 2017
> 
> With the adoption of 2015-5, transfer policy is severed from ARIN allocation 
> / assignment policy.  It is no longer clear how slow start applies (if at 
> all) to justifying a transfer.  Having a slow start algorithm available to 
> the transfer market will make for a more predictable and more right sized 
> blocks in line with organizational growth.
> 
> Problem Discussion:
> 
> In a pre-transfer world ISPs who are growing rapidly, or have no history of 
> utilization to support their IPv4 two year growth requirements, could qualify 
> under slow start.
> 
> The initial block was either a small block (between /24 and /21), or double 
> what they efficiently used in the previous year.  If thate space was used in 
> less than a year, they could get twice as much the next time.
> 
> The implementation of Policy 2016-5 severs transfer policy form section 4 
> where the slow start rules are defined.  As a result it is unclear if the 
> slow start process can be used to justify a specified transfer.
> 
> Additionally, the inability to complete regular transfers could lead to a 
> situation where lack of IPv4 addresses is rate limiting deployment. As a 
> result demonstrated utilization of the last 12 months may not be indicative 
> of actual growth.
> 
> NRPM 8.5.3 / 8.5.4 (ARIN Policy 2016-4) supports an initial block of only a 
> /24 if there is no allocation or assignment.
> 
> Policy Proposal 2016-3 (the sister policy to 2016-4) supports a larger block 
> (after demonstration of efficient utilization) equal to their current 
> holdings up to a /16 every 6 months.
> 
> Because 2016-3 no longer permits using a /16 at a time and demonstrating 
> utilization before coming back for another, organizations who are growing at 
> more than a /15 a year are forced to use the two year forward looking 
> projected growth as justification.
> 
> This prediction is difficult to measure, difficult to justify, difficult to 
> verify, and provides unpredictability to the amount of time a justification 
> requires to be processed, and the likelihood of approval.  This process 
> favors organizations who more aggressively optimistic and has no penalty if 
> an organization fails to meet their plans.
> 
> Problem solution:
> 
> Permit organizations who demonstrate efficient utilization to use the 
> utilization of their most recent specified transfer(s) to extrapolate a two 
> year growth projection allowing a specified transfer of up to double the size 
> of the transfers used in the justification.
> 
> Policy statement:
> 
> Current policy:
> 
> 8.5.5. Block size
> 
> Organizations may qualify for the transfer of a larger initial block, or an 
> additional block, by providing documentation to ARIN which details the use of 
> at least 50% of the requested IPv4 block size within 24 months. An officer of 
> the organization shall attest to the documentation provided to ARIN.
> 
> Proposed changes:
> 
> Add the following to the end of 8.5.5:
> 
> Organizations may demonstrate a 24 month future projection based on the 
> average amount of time required to efficiently utilize one or more of their 
> most recent specified transfers.
> 
> The organization must show efficient utilization of at least 50% of all 
> specified transfers from the current date back to the the date of the 
> earliest specified transfer included in the request.  The organization will 
> be pre-authorized for a two year window to complete one or more specified 
> transfers up to the total number of IPv4 addresses of the transfers included 
> in the request, divided by the number of days (no less than 90) since the 
> earliest specified transfer included in the request was completed, multiplied 
> by 730.
> 
> Comments:
> 
> Timetable for implementation: Immediate
> _______________________________________________
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