There's a theory that the only way Tullock could possibly win the prize is if BOTH 
Kreuger and Bahgwati are his co-winners.  This softens the blow of Tullock getting up 
there and saying "you people shoudl have given me this prize a long time ago," while 
setting a precedent for giving it to a lawyer and to a woman.  I'm not sure what those 
latter two buy you, but I've heard that theory tossed around.

My short list of probables, in descending order of chronology and/or likelihood:
Smith for experimental
Baumol for contestible markets
Romer for endogenous growth
Posner for the economics of sex (okay, actually for law and econ)
and eventually Mankiw for New K. "revolution"

My short list of humorables:
Caplan for Armchair Listmania


Edward J. López
Assistant Professor
Department of Economics
University of North Texas
P.O. Box 311457
Denton, TX 76203-1457
Tel: 940.369.7005
Fax: 940.565.4426

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