> Are you saying that there's a > real cycle of real estate > that takes 18 years from (from peak to peak or from > peak to trough?)? > David
That is the usual cycle, although there are exceptions. > That > seems different from your initial contention that > the current bubble has been > caused by monetary growth. My contention is that there are two causes, monetary and real (including fiscal), and the causes are complementary. The timing of the cycle is inherent in the nature of the real estate market for rentals and construction. > then do you > predict a collapse of real estate prices based on > monetary or real factors, or both? Both Fred