My model explains a negative correlation between extremity and
flexibility.  You objected that correlation of *signals* would mean that
"The people who
become more confident and move from the initial consensus position
should also tend to move in the same direction from that consensus.  But
we observe similar levels of confidence moving both directions away from
the consensus."  My later post simply indicated that your conclusion
does not follow from the premise.  Correlation of signals implies more
people on one side of the extreme than the other, it does not imply
asymmetric confidence levels when moving away from the consensus.  The
number of people at either extreme and the confidence with which the
extremes hold their views are two totally different things.

Dr. Alexander Tabarrok
Vice President and Director of Research
The Independent Institute
100 Swan Way
Oakland, CA, 94621-1428
Tel. 510-632-1366, FAX: 510-568-6040

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