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I think the "war" word will turn out to be no-win
for stockmarkets. Either people will conclude there is a sustained period of
war, in which case I assume 4-6% isnt a full downward correction for going to a
major war. Or in time people will conclude that there isnt a war but there is a
sort of lost sense in aspects of America's secure identity and other
uncertainties caused by mainly pessismistic scenarios of the ways in which
the world has chnaged
I dont know the time scale (maybe months) but I'd
guess we'll see stockmarkets 20 per cent down before we see 20 per cent up
. I also believe that there's a big black hole in understanding the dynamic
impacts that the American identity has on different peoples of the
world. Too complex a subject to start to thread here, though in my
mind it impacts many macroeconomic questions in an intangibles and network
age.
Chief Brand Officers Association, Founding
Group
----- Original Message -----
Sent: 16 September 2001 2:50 AM
Subject: Dismal science
According to a Harris poll (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/allnewsbydate.asp?NewsID=356),
65% of American shareholders think that stocks will go down when the market
opens on Monday, but only 1% intend to sell -- presumably out of patriotism.
The fact that markets are down elsewhere in the world also points to a bearish
Monday.
Now, if I am a patriot and believe that stock prices will go down
but that nobody else will sell, I will reason that I am better off selling.
Then, I don't contribute to the crash (for there won't be one) and don't lose
my money either. (Moreover, not all stock holders are patriots, nor Americans
for that matter.)
Consequently, one would expect a drop on American
exchanges on Monday (5%-6%?). Any other ideas?
PIERRE LEMIEUX
Visiting Professor , Université du Québec à Hull
Co-director of the
Groupe de Recherche Économie et Liberté (GREL)
Research Fellow, Independent
Institute
http://www.pierrelemieux.org
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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