> >So Bill, are you willing to stick your neck out regarding the January >effect? Thaler says average ROR in January is 3.5%, versus an average >of .5% for all other months. Is this another case of basis points being >exagerated into percentage points?
So if you invest in stocks in January and bonds the rest of the year and the bonds earn 80% of the average annual return of stocks you get ~10.5% return vs. 9.3% from stocks vs 7.2 from bonds. If most of the volatility in stocks is in January as well you don't save much on risk premium. Not hard to imagine that the tax cost of getting in and out of stocks every year could dominate an extra 1.2% return. That plus I thought I remembered that Thaler's January effect has been more subdued since he wrote his article. Thaler advises a fund and I haven't heard that it is head and shoulders above other funds. - - Bill William T. Dickens The Brookings Institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 797-6113 FAX: (202) 797-6181 E-MAIL: [EMAIL PROTECTED] AOL IM: wtdickens
