fabio guillermo rojas wrote:

... the driver of my airport shuttle ... his investments. ... insisted
that he was *fast* - he was simply faster at spotting the trend than the
average investor.  ... how much of investing behavior is based on
self-assesment vs. rational expectations? In other words, when are
investors driven by their perception that they can beat other investors
vs. an assessment that an average investment will be profitable?

I presume you mean irrationaly optimistic self-assesment? I'd say quite a lot. But then comes the
hard question: what policy implications follow from this conclusion?


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