The Vote-Cost of Scandal

[Bryan Caplan]

The Lewinsky scandal, according to most public opinion scholars, 
actually increased Clinton's popularity.  But even after Lewinsky, 
politicians have continued to resign or drop out of races in the face of 
similar scandals, and of course they did it for a long time before. 
What is going on?

1.  The usual rules do not apply to Clinton - the public will punish 
other politicians for comparable actions.
2.  Politicians systematically overestimate voters' reactions.
3.  Public opinion has changed.  Pre-Clinton, scandals mattered.  Now 
they don't.  Politicians are still learning about this regime change.
--
                        Prof. Bryan Caplan
       Department of Economics      George Mason University
        http://www.bcaplan.com      [EMAIL PROTECTED]

              "The game of just supposing
               Is the sweetest game I know...
               And if the things we dream about
               Don't happen to be so,
               That's just an unimportant technicality."
           Jerome Kern and Oscar Hammerstein, *Showboat*