SAG announces and the real race can now begin<http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/season/2008/12/sag-announces-a.html> Nominations link: http://www.sagawards.org/nominations
With this morning's announcement of the 15th annual Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations, the "real" race for Oscar can now begin in earnest. Critics awards are nice and we are getting a steady diet of them every day, but it's the guild awards that tend to be a real barometer of the temperature of the race. This is where peers vote for peers and much of the membership tends to overlap with the academy's. The SAG Awards nominations are a bit of an exception in that its list of nominees is created by the randomly chosen 2,150 member SAG Nominating Committee, which changes its makeup each year. There probably isn't much correlation with the academy's actors branch, which consists largely of "name" performers. Still, SAG has a very good record in being predictive of what the academy will probably do. Overall, the nominees produced no major surprises and no major upsets, although Wednesday evening a consultant for Fox Searchlight told me that he was not expecting anything for "Slumdog Millionaire," because the cast is unknown and mostly Indian. However, SAG ignored prestige projects such as "Revolutionary Road" in its outstanding cast category and honored the "Slumdog" group instead. Dev Patel was nominated for supporting actor, joining names like Freida Pinto, Anil Kapoor and Irfan Khan plus several younger actors in a rare SAG recognition of a completely foreign cast. Interesting to note that the SAG nominating committee also overlooked big-ticket items from Warner Bros., such as the year's top-grossing film, "The Dark Knight," and Clint Eastwood's "Gran Torino," in favor of "Slumdog," a movie the studio virtually handed to Fox Searchlight after shutting down Warner Independent (where it was originally produced). Warners, which didn't seem to have a clue what to do with the flick (shot partially in the Hindi language), even ignored the offer by Bob Berney of Picturehouse (its other now-defunct specialty arm) to release it. The studio does retain 50% of the profit even though bragging rights clearly belong to Searchlight. Warner Bros. does share in the three nominations for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (which it is releasing internationally), but Paramount is completely responsible for the U.S. release and the awards campaign. Speaking of Eastwood, he was snubbed by SAG for his critically praised turn in "Gran Torino," a repeat of last week's snub at the Golden Globes. Still it's highly likely he will be recognized by the academy when its nominations are revealed Jan. 22. Eastwood didn't get a lead actor SAG nomination for "Million Dollar Baby" either, but he did go on to an Oscar nod. The academy actors branch has a demonstrated fondness for Clint's thesping qualities that other awards groups don't have, except perhaps the BFCA's Critics Choice crowd (which *did* nominate him, and often most closely mirrors Oscar thinking). The big question is who on the SAG list he could replace. Frank Langella, Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke would seem to be locks -- and "The Visitor's" Richard Jenkins is a working actor's actor, and his inclusion for a career-changing role would seem to be catnip for Oscar voters as well. That leaves Pitt, whose subtle and nuanced performance in "Benjamin Button" could be squeezed out by Eastwood, who has very publicly indicated that "Torino" may be his last on-camera acting gig. Besides the Globes noms and Kate Winslet's best actress SAG nod, there seems to be little love for "Revolutionary Road." There was no nomination for the ensemble cast, nor were there individual nominations for Leonardo DiCaprio or, surprisingly, Michael Shannon. That doesn't bode well for Oscar, because "Revolutionary Road" is nothing if not an actors movie. Although Winslet, Meryl Streep and Pitt's partner, Angelina Jolie, all made the best actress lineup as expected, there was some mild surprise that "Button's" Cate Blanchett was left off the list (she was nominated as part of the entire cast, though). Not too surprisingly, "Happy Go Lucky's" Sally Hawkins was also ignored, despite a gaggle of critics prizes. The film just didn't resonate with the SAG group, and its L.A. profile during awards season has been low. Kristin Scott Thomas' absence from the Hollywood awards beat because of her Broadway commitment in "The Sea Gull" could be partially responsible for the SAG snub for her bravura performance (in French, no less) in "I've Loved You So Long." How else do you explain it? However, like Eastwood, she is likely to show up in the Oscar nominations, perhaps in place of "Rachel Getting Married's" Anne Hathaway. "Rachel" has been getting mixed responses from academy members I have talked to, even though Hathaway has had a very successful run so far this season. It's an embarrassment of riches for Sony Pictures Classics, which has Thomas, Hathaway and "Frozen River's" SAG nominee Melissa Leo as its triple A(ctress) threat. Leo, like Jenkins, is an actor's actor. She's worked with everyone, and you can expect her good fortune to continue at the Oscars with a well-deserved pat on the back from her colleagues for the very indie "Frozen River." "Doubt's" strength at SAG (a leading five nominations) isn't a shocker. It's a strong actors' piece and it was rapturously received at a packed SAG nom comm screening I moderated with the entire cast several weeks ago. SAG contenders Streep, Viola Davis and Philip Seymour Hoffman are heavily favored to go on to Oscar nominations. If anyone was going to be left out it was co-star Amy Adams, but her back-to-back Globe and SAG nominations are impressive. She is now a real threat to "The Wrestler's" Marisa Tomei, who was on a critics group roll earlier this week but nowhere to be found on SAG's roster this morning. Interesting to note that Golden Globe snubee Taraji P. Henson of "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" got more nominations than *any* other actor on the SAG roster this morning. She got two from "Benjamin Button" for supporting actress and as a member of the nominated cast, and her TV work in the "Boston Legal" ensemble was also recognized. Look who's having the last laugh now, Hollywood Foreign Press! The supporting actor lineup could be the exact one we see Jan. 22 as Josh Brolin in "Milk" and Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder" are having great years and seem likely to be acknowledged for them by Oscar. They join Heath Ledger's posthumous bid for "Dark Knight" and "Doubt's" strong leading actor Hoffman, who seems to have convinced SAG and Globe and Critics Choice voters that his is a supporting role. The big question is whether "Slumdog's" Dev Patel can maintain his SAG heat over the brilliant unnominated Michael Shannon of "Rev Road" (also incredibly overlooked by Globe and Critics Choice voters). It could come down to which movie is liked better, and right now it seems apparent that would be "Slumdog." Since the outstanding cast of a motion picture award is thought to be SAG's "best picture" prize (but not always), the lineup this year of "Benjamin Button," "Doubt," "Frost/Nixon," "Milk" and "Slumdog Millionaire" really * does* bode well for the films' corresponding hopes in the Oscar race. Almost any so-called Oscar pundit will tell you that the first four are virtual locks for a best pic nomination, with the fifth slot up for grabs. "Slumdog's" two SAG nominations are particularly impressive in light of its unknown cast and will cement that crowd pleaser as the one to eventually beat for the big prize. "Frost/Nixon's" presence on the SAG ensemble cast list is also intriguing because it is thought to be basically a two-hander between Langella and Michael Sheen, hardly an ensemble-type piece that is usually the hallmark of the cast category. Both are showing great strength at this point. And now the fact that "Doubt" led all comers in this first of the all-important guild races gives it the headlines and a big boost to indeed grab that remaining best picture slot just one week and one day before Academy Award ballots are put in the mail. In case you were wondering, only two of SAG's 20 acting nominees did not participate in at least one screening Q&A session for the Nom Comm members: Sean Penn and, of course, Heath Ledger. In person appearances obviously pay off big time. So is SAG gonna be a major Oscar bellwether again this year? Will the other major guild nominatons -- WGA, DGA and PGA -- follow suit when they are announced after the holidays? Time will tell. Finally, the Screen Actors Guild Awards show takes place Sunday, Jan. 25, just two days after the union announces the results of members' vote to give the board authorization to call a strike and just one day after the board meets to discuss it and decide what course of action to take. With this possible doomsday scenario, the SAG awards show could be *very* interesting this year, no matter who wins. Doncha think? -- Pete Hammond *Photo courtesy Paramount Pictures* Posted by Pete Hammond on December 18, 2008 | Permalink<http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/season/2008/12/sag-announces-a.html> | Email this post<?subject=Check%20out%20SAG%20announces%20and%20the%20real%20race%20can%20now%20begin&body=Go%20to%20http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/season/2008/12/sag-announces-a.html> TrackBack TrackBack URL for this entry: http://www.typepad.com/t/trackback/816965/37234610 Listed below are links to weblogs that reference SAG announces and the real race can now begin<http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/season/2008/12/sag-announces-a.html> : Comments Very excited to see Slumdog Millionaire getting so much glitzy Hollywood attention! Finally, it seems America is waking up to international cinema... and this'll be a nice trinket to show all those people who think Hindi movies are all about dancing around trees a la Bollywood. Speaking of dancing around trees in Bollywood, I think my sense of reality might implode if I see Anil Kapoor winning a glitzy Hollywood prize before the more typically "exportable" arthouse Indian actors like Naseeruddin Shah, Om Puri... This just goes to show that Anil was a time bomb of talent, waiting to explode. Slumdog cast for the win! And now dare I dream bigger: A.R. Rahman for Best Score? Cheers, Madhavan.R Be a Music Fan; not a Music Pirate!
