coool...... Good prediction... Rahman Sir bagging 2 awards and Slumdog Milionaire bagging nearly 9 totally.... really cait wait... still 4 days to go!!!
Regards, Vinodh TG --- In [email protected], "ravi_2174" <ravi...@...> wrote: > > http://www.reelviews.net/reelthoughts.php?identifier=558 > > Predicting Oscar winners is as much a skill as an art, and it has > little to do with who deserves to win. Anyone who predicts on the > basis of quality is doomed to score low. The first lesson to learn > when predicting Oscars (especially if you're involved in a pool - > purely for entertainment, of course) is that it's sometimes a > coincidence when the best man or woman takes home the prize. > > When a member of the Academy votes, he or she will do one of three > things: (1) Choose the film/person (s)he thinks is the most deserving, > (2) Choose the film/person (s)he has a connection with, (3) Choose the > film/person whose victory will be the most advantageous to him/her. > > Perhaps unsurprisingly, #2 and #3 trump #1 - not always, but more > often than many people in Hollywood would like to admit. Predicting > winners requires that the predictor take these factors into > consideration and weigh how they will impact the overall voting. It's > a lot like predicting who will win an election, except there are no > available polls. > > Picture: Slumdog Millionaire. It's not a lock, but it rests in a > comfortable position. I have long thought this movie would win based > on its broad, feel-good appeal - I am on the record from before the > nominations were handed out saying it would win, and nothing has > changed in the past 45 days to alter that belief. The real question > is: How long are its coattails? > > Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire. Often goes in lock-step > with Best Picture. No reason that should be different this year. > > Lead Actor: Sean Penn, Milk. Penn is not all that well-liked in > Hollywood, but I get the sense that there's a groundswell to give Milk > something. If Penn loses to Mickey Rourke, expect a repeat of the > outrage that erupted a few years ago when an undeserving Brokeback > Mountain was passed over for an equally undeserving Crash. > > Lead Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader. Not a lock, but she has been > nominated enough times that the Academy will probably figure it's time > to give her an award. And if she wins oh, the irony! But will the > Academy be intimidated by Extras? > > Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight. It's not a level > playing field, and none of the other nominees have shown any interest > in evening out the odds. (Better to be alive and have no Oscar than > dead and have one.) The great unanswered (and unanswerable) question > is whether a living Ledger would have been able to win this award. > Anyone who argues that his death isn't a factor is fooling > himself/herself. How many people have voted for him just to see the > tear-jerking spectacle of his daughter (and her mother) accepting the > award? > > Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Doubt. When an underdog wins, it's > often in one of the Supporting categories. Since Heath Ledger's > position is impregnable, that means the most likely category for an > upset is this one. The favorite is Penelope Cruz, and maybe she'll > win. But something tells me the front-runner could be in trouble here > > The rest (except the shorts, which I never predict), without > commentary, follow. Three things that factored into these predictions: > Slumdog Millionaire will have coattails, Hollywood dislikes The Dark > Knight, and Hollywood really dislikes Revolutionary Road. > > Animated Feature: WALL-E > Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button > Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire > Costume Design: The Duchess > Documentary: Man on Wire > Editing: Slumdog Millionaire > Foreign Language Film: Waltz with Bashir > Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button > Musical Score: Slumdog Millionaire > Music (Song): "Jai Ho," Slumdog Millionaire > Sound Editing: Slumdog Millionaire > Sound Mixing: Slumdog Millionaire > Visual Effects: The Dark Knight > Writing (Adapted): Slumdog Millionaire > Writing (Original): Milk > > How will I do? Time will tell, but the numbers from recent years may > provide a clue: > 2008: 13/21 (62%) > 2007: 12/21 (57%) > 2006: 13/21 (62%) > 2005: 17/21 (81%) > 2004: 18/21 (86%) > > Make of those numbers what you will >
