Veteran critic attempts to predict Oscar wins
by Andy Jefchak | The Grand Rapids Press
Thursday February 19, 2009, 10:06 PM
Sean Penn, center, is a favorite for the Best Actor award for his role in
"Milk."
Because I've had the distinct privilege of participating in all of the Oscar
contests sponsored by The Press since the late 1970s, I can say without false
modesty the process is humbling. To paraphrase Charles Dickens, "it is the best
of contests, and it is the worst of contests." Best in its consistent
requirement of correct picks in 16 categories (not the main five or six most
publications require), and worst in that I've never been a winner.
During all these years of informed, analytical, seemingly logical predictions,
not once have I guessed correctly enough to have earned an official invitation
to The Press Oscar party in the spring. I write reviews, though, so my editor
lets me attend.
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In appreciation of that continued kindness, I offer my picks this year with
humility. As usual, I have mixed personal favorites with educated guesses,
which may explain why I never win.
Best Picture: "Slumdog Millionaire"
A fine film that nonetheless is slightly overrated, despite the greatest
end-credit sequence of all time. I'm picking it because my choice, "In Bruges,"
didn't get nominated.
Actor: Sean Penn, "Milk"
Movieland gossip suggests Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"), but I say Penn's
versatility has earned him a greater reputation over a longer period of time.
Actress: Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
Despite the film's nomination as Best Picture, it shows some serious flaws.
However, Winslet's great performance overshadows them, or at least makes them
seem minor.
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
If you've still got a mortgage, you can risk it on this one. The late actor is
as close to a sure winner as the evening will produce.
Supporting Actress: Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
As usual, this category is tough to figure because all five women were
terrific. Just before I filed this story, I crossed out my initial choice,
Penelope Cruz in "Vicky Christina Barcelona." That kind of indecision usually
backfires on me.
Director: Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
As everyone must be aware by now, the director of the winning film is almost
always victorious in his or her own category. Even if the picture loses,
however, Boyle deserves it for his expert handling of locations and an
emotionally complex story.
Adapted Screenplay: Peter Morgan, "Frost/Nixon"
Morgan effectively expands his play beyond the time and space limitations of
the stage or television. For what essentially is an interview film, it's quite
big.
Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh, "In Bruges"
An amazing mix of moods and tones jump out at you from this gritty film. The
dialogue is sometimes funny and frightening at the same time.
Animated Feature Film: "WALL-E"
This is almost as much a certainty as Heath Ledger (see above). More
importantly, if it doesn't win, my bright young colleague (John Serba) may go
into voluntary exile.
Art Direction: "Changeling"
Credit for the digital mid-1930s Los Angeles likely will go to the people in
special effects, but Patrick Sullivan's visual concept perfectly merged its
look with the story.
Cinematography: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Any one of the five is as worthy as another. Anthony Dod Mantle's camera
captures urban squalor of Mumbai and isolated scenes of intimacy with equal
skill.
Sound Mixing: "The Dark Knight"
Outside of the cinch for supporting actor, this category seems to offer the
best chance for the Batman blockbuster.
Original Score: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Composer A. R. Rahman has scored more than 60 Indian films since 2000, but few
Americans have heard any of them until this memorable entry. His percussive
sounds live inside the story.
Original Song: "Down to Earth" from "WALL-E"
The other two nominees are from "Slumdog Millionaire," thereby splitting the
vote to benefit Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman.
Costumes: "The Duchess"
You could make a case that this film is its costumes. Michael O'Connor gets
credit for the clothes on the backs of everyone in it.
Film Editing: "Milk"
A relative newcomer, Elliot Graham, helps create the swift pace of events in
this study of recent history, skillfully mixing footage of actual events with
dramatic re-creations.
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