I'm still trying to unpack the implications for Asbury Park of these comments from Otteau Valuation Group, especially those about "childless households" and school systems. The article focuses on NJ counties just north of Monmouth. Some excerpts from http://tinyurl.com/8fh9a5 In the Region - Housing Inventories on the Rise - NYTimes.com There are a few other areas encircling Manhattan that also maintain what might be described as less-than-albatross-sized inventories.... As for the “suburban sprawl” single-family-home developments that New Jersey policymakers have long been trying to rein in, Mr. Otteau predicts the market will only worsen.... “Right now we are all focusing on how bad it is,” he said, “but what we are also seeing is a historic reversal of home-buying demand away from suburban and rural areas to cities and inner-ring suburbs that are more walkable than driveable.” Mr. Otteau says the shift was partly because of higher energy prices. But the dominant reason is that the number of households with children living at home is on a persistent decline. “In 1985,” he said, “50 percent of households had children at home. In 2000, that was down to 33 percent. Today it is 29 percent, headed to 25 percent. “That means that 75 percent of home buyers over the next 15 years will have childless households — and within that group are empty-nester baby-boomers, or couples or singles buying a first house. And that means that three out of four home buyers will have no interest in a house in the suburbs with a good school system, which is pretty much what we’ve created over the last 50 years.” In the Region - Housing Inventories on the Rise - NYTimes.com
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