steve herman, 805 6th ave
____________________________________
From: [email protected]
To: [email protected]
Sent: 10/29/2011 9:15:36 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time
Subj: Weather update - October 29th
Approaching StormMAJOR NOR'EASTER UNDERWAY WITH HIGH WINDS AND RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW
HISTORIC EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
Membership Feedback
OCTOBER 29TH
An unprecedented weather event is unfolding across much of the area as
deepening and very dynamic low pressure near Cape Hatteras moves northeast
and gives much of the area record October snowfall.
Rain is currently advancing northward through New Jersey. Winds are
already gusting to near 30mph along the coast...winds will continue to
increase
and gust to over 50mph along the immediate coast and 40mph inland.
As the day wears on, colder air will begin to filter down due in large
part due to the storm's exceptional dynamics. Rain will change to snow
quickly over the northwest corner of NJ. The rain/snow line will move south
and
east during the day. There will be a very wide disparity in snow amounts
across the area depending on elevation and distance from the coast.
Projected snow accumulations and rain to snow changeover times are as
follows:
8 to 14 inches along the I-84 corridor from the Poconos through NW NJ
through interior New York State and much of southern New England (brief rain
at the start)
4 to 8 inches in interior NJ north of I-80 and away from the coast (late
morning)
3 to 6 inches between I-78 and I-80 but 2 to 4 inches in the eastern
portion of this area including NYC (early to mid afternoon)
2 to 4 inches in the Route 1 corridor from just west of Philly through
Trenton, New Brunswick and Newark (mid to late afternoon)
1 to 3 inches much of interior NJ west of the Parkway (late afternoon)
About an inch along the immediate coast (early evening)
Mesoscale banding of snow will set up later today and may cause some
unusual variances in snow amounts depending on where these bands set
up....particularly along the coast where areas under the bands receive heavy
snow
with dynamic cooling but areas just outside the bands experience light rain.
These snowfall amounts are unprecedented for October. The record
snowfall for the month of October in this area is a small fraction of these
forecasted amounts.
Coastal flooding will occur at times of high tide this morning. The next
high tide cycle this evening should be lower because winds will have
shifted to a north-northwest by that time.
For those of you keeping score over the past 12 months....the 2nd biggest
snowfall on record in December, top 3 hottest day in recorded history on
July 22nd, earthquake....followed 5 days later by first landfalling
hurricane in NJ since 1903, wettest month on record by a wide margin in
August,
and now a snowstorm before Halloween.
>From a meteorological standpoint, the most unlikely event out of all of
the above is actually what is happening today. A winter storm of this
magnitude to occur in October is just unreal.
OCTOBER 27TH
Strong Nor'Easter will affect the area on Saturday and Saturday night with
high winds, possible coastal flooding, rain and yes, even snow.
Hard to believe that it is October and the word 'snow' is in the
forecast, but that is what we are looking at this Saturday as a strong coastal
storm combines with an unseasonably chilly air mass to bring conditions more
typical of winter than late October.
Rain and wind will be on the increase towards daybreak on Saturday and
continue during the day on Saturday. Rain will change to snow over higher
elevations of NW NJ, interior New York and New England. The rain/snow line
will be moving south and east during the day and will likely reach the
coast around sunset.
Along the coast, it is important to remember that ocean temps are still in
the mid 50s so precipitation will have to falling heavily to dynamically
cool the lower levels of the atmosphere enough to see snow, but I do think
that snowflakes will be in the air all the way to the coast. The very
latest guidance suggests a slushy accumulation in the grass even along the
coast.
Interior sections of NJ will likely see an inch or two slushy accumulation
on cars and grassy surfaces.
Well inland across interior NW Jersey, interior NY just north of NYC and
most of New England could be in line for a heavy wet snow of 3 to 6
inches...with the possibility of even more snow over areas about 1000'. This
could be the biggest October snowstorm ever across these areas.
Wind will increase from the north and northeast during the day and gust
from 40mph to 60mph. Tides are already astronomically high, so areas that
are prone to tidal flooding should be on the look out.
This is a potent storm....and since there are still leaves on the trees,
there could be a surprising amount of tree damage and power outages because
of the weight of the snow on the leaves coupled with the wind. However,
Hurricane Irene did quite a bit of "pruning" throughout the area.
The sun will return on Sunday and temps will rebound to around 50.
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