----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 9:13
AM
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The
CONCLUSION
Hi Santanu:
Of all the analyses, yours make the most sense, and I agree with most of
it. I also was not sure how Utpal's points correlate with the ones you
make. But be that as it may, allow me to chime in here:
As I see it, the GOI thinks of negotiations
with ULFA as basically a process of waiting till the latter is ready to
surrender - the only talk it wants is to check out if they are ready for
that - and if that ever happens, they have a stdandard face saving
formula that they will offer - bits of special powers for the state, maybe
inner line permit, lots of central funds (to fatten the leaders) and a
political process to return them to power in the state elections.
>As I see it, the ULFA has no reason to accept such an offer at this
point.
**** I will have to agree with what you observe above. I harbor
similar concerns. The Naga non-negotiations and the stand-still is an example
of things to expect. However what is unknown here is whether ULFA will
submit itself to a prolonged period of non-ability to put any pressure on GoI,
by resumption of violence again that is, if the talks do not progress. That
would be an unfortunate outcome, in which Assam will be the loser. It
therefore behooves the people of Assam--at least those who want to see an end
to the hostilities with some essential and measurable gains for Assam, to put
political/public opinion pressures on GoI . Similarly on that segment of
Assam's establishment and intelligentsia, who is opposed to meaningful
and substantive governmental reforms
and regaining of controls over its resources, either willfully or
unwittingly.
________________________________________________________________________________
*** I wrote the above on Monday, on my way back to St.Louis. Since then,
we have already seen things changing, like ULFA's notice to OIL ( or was it
ONGC? ), and an editorial in the Sentinel of yesterday's, in which it
criticizes ( rightly, for a change) the ghee-belly-governor-general's
'bad-cop' talk, contradicting Delhi's willingness to engage in talks
with ULFA for a negotiated settlement of the conflict. While it could be given
the benefit of the doubt that Dilli's right hand does not know what its left
is doing, a frequent phenomenon, I will be loathe to accept it. It looks more
and more like that ol' "good-cop, bad-cop" routine. Does ULFA see the
handwriting on the wall? I will have to believe they do, very well.
And it does not bode well.
________________________________________________________________________________
Like we discussed earlier , here arises the importance of a concerted
political effort both on ULFA's part as well as that segment of Assam which is
sympathetic to ULFA's efforts on behalf of Assam, as an essential concurrent
movement.
Reluctantly, I am resigned to the notion that the tiny segment that is
beholden to Delhi's interests should be ignored as irrelevant and a complete
waste of effort.
But those of us who do care, have an important role to play: To help move
the efforts for a negotiated along, by mobilizing public support. One such
effort would be by offering ideas for a reformed Assam governance, based on
real ( asc opposed to the desi kind) democratic concepts and principles.
c-da
At 10:18 PM -0600 1/13/06, Roy, Santanu wrote:
Utpal:
I agree with your vision.
The
way I see it - in the short run, there is almost nothing substantive that
one can get the GOI to accede to in terms of effective decentralization of
power or plebscite or any other adjustment to the political relationship
between Delhi and Assam. The babus and polticians that run Delhi are under
almost no pressure at all.
Chandan-da suggested that the pressure might
come from the fact that New Delhi wants to look like a big world power and
carry international prestige & it can't do that with an armed rebellion
and suppression of liberty in one part of its country. I actually don't
think that India has any such ambition. India want to be China in terms of
international leverage. China routinely suppresses even peaceful peasant
movements by brute force. International power follows from aggregate
economic and military might. It does not require internal democracy or
liberty. Countries like today's India, China, current Russia, Iran, Turkey
are not very civil (I know I am going to be lynched for saying this)- they
do not aim to project their power through moral superiority of their
internal social order.
The only way a rebellion in Assam would
threaten India's ascendency would be if it made India look unstable. But
like Chechnya or even the Kurdish border in Turkey, Assam is almost a
detached fringe of Indian society. It cannot destabilize India as of
now.
Therefore, I see no closure in sight.
I
also agree with you that hope lies in history. None of us concievably
imagine what the geopolitical map of the world will look like 20 or 30 years
from now. To take advantage of historical opportunities (like your third
world war), one needs to have a strong civil movement at the grassroot level
- a cohesive nationality formation process. That is much harder than armed
insurrection.
Santanu.
-----Original
Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] on behalf of Malabika
Brahma
Sent: Sat 1/14/2006 10:57 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re:
[Assam] Reforms - The CONCLUSION
Ram da asked some very
practical questions. We all know that the GOI is controlled by politicians
who gives a damn if Assam or NE bleeds to death.
Here is the fact (as
stressed by Santanu )
Those who control GOI are
politicians who care less for the people of Assam and NE and care less for
the lives of soldiers that die in NE. So achieving independence through an
armed struggle is next to impossible.
The only way
independence can be achieved are:
1. By making
constitutional amendment to include "instrument of secession" in Indian
constitution and influencing upon the GOI to hold a plesbicite in Assam/NE
and hope that majority of the people vote for secession. But this can not be
achieved unless there is move to build a consensus in the National
level.
2. By hoping that a
3rd world war breaks out and GOI finds it impossible to manage the present
political India. Actually in my opinion 2nd world war is what helped
India win its independence from the British. It became too expensive for
Britain to maintain its colonies because of its involvement in the
war. This again is highly unlikely.
May be
Chandan da or Mike da knows some other Practical Means of achieving
independence that we are missing.
That's why I
think "Independence of Assam/NE is excellent to have but not possible to
achieve". So why build castles in the air ?
But yes, if we can force GOI to hold a plesbicite, that will be the greatest
victory. What will be the outcome of the plesbicite , is left to speculation
of course.
But one thing we have to
understand, for Government of India , ULFA and NDFB may not count, but
for Assam and NE, they are our boys after all. When one ULFA/NDFB
member gets eliminated, one of my brother or sister is getting
eliminated.
Utpal
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