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My common sense analysis not from
the top but from ground level realty:
Negative points for
AGP:
1) They never discussed any real
issues and thought that they will get Assamese votes simply by sweet talking.
The blow came from the Assamese mainstream majority who decided not to support
them exactly for their lack of vision. (Where is the beef?)
2) This also shows how low level
politics of the Assamese are. In my judgment they would have lost even
without the break up. Now the break up did one good thing. PM, the bad element
is gone forever. Now the AGP can build, if they are smart, by realizing in their
bone the realty of things. They need to discuss the issues. They must realize
that Congress is even taking the role of the regional party which is
supposed to be played by AGP. AGP must understand that people have voted
Congress not because they love Congress but simply because majority
mainstream Assamese (even ignoring the minority vote bank) see more
development work under Congress, comparatively stable administration
with all getting their salaries, Congress making progress with the settlement
with ULFA (as opposed to AGP) etc.
3) AGP really showed how spineless
they are when they tried to shake hands with Muslim minority leader whom Tarun
Gogoi rejected at the risk of his party position.
4) AGP showed again a real lack of
originality when they brought their big brother from Andhra Pradesh to
give election speech in Assam politics. (Just think of it. A regional
party showing that they donot have enough confidence in themselves as speakers
and anybody from mainland India is better. How low the Assamese thinking can
go!!!)
Opposed to this, Congress,
specially Tarun Gogoi. made some capital gains.
1) Relations with ULFA is a plus
point.
2) Tie in with Bodo must be looked
positively by the Assamese.
3) His rejection of the Muslim
minority leaders to join Congress has earned him more supports from the
mainstream Assamese.
I don't believe in day dream.
Whether we like it or not these are the parties and these are the ground level
realities. We will have to come up just by doing the hard work step by step.
There is no magic that Assam will rise tomorrow suddenly. We have seen all the
cards, and we all know the game.
Bottom line, the new AGP must learn
fast how not to try to do politics by sincerely discussing the real issues
of Assam other than sweet talk. At this time, if we say Congress is a
base line, AGP is probably minus 5. There is no short cut to come up but
hard work. Can we see a beginning of discussion of the issues. If they don't
know what are the issues the following may be some to start with:
1) Definition of
Assamese?
2) Why Assam lags - Economic
report?
3) Illegal immigration ; what
is their position other than shaking hands with
Badaruddin?
4) Assam - Asom issue? Do have any
position?
5) Unemployment ?
6) Assam Flood?
7) Assam infra
structure?
8) How to bring new
industries?
9) Assam Tourism?
etc
So far AGP has not made a single
voice on any of the issues.
Let us see how the next five years
go. Let us hopw they take some expert advisers.
RB
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 14, 2006 2:27 AM
Subject: Re: [Assam] Election
results
WHY?
#1 Kothatey Bonta Pai, Kothatey Kota Zai - He started by saying "I shall be
the next CM"
#2 Personality matters, Speech matters, Posture matters, Assamese
intonation matters, English matters a lot.He had none.
#3 Substance matters, Problem Statement matters. Where did he define?
#4 Knowing fully well that the whole Election Process is
bogus-and Voters are a bunch of ***** ,AGP should have united every
conceivable dissident and asked voters sentimentally why their last hope is
AGP+++.And widely circulated this at the last moment.
#5 Playing into clever Amar Singh's hands and talking of the
3RD Front meant over-ambition and nothing towards Free
Oxom.
That's why he is gone for good. Now Smart-talking strategists -with
confidence in their own superiority oozing out in every sentence the
blurt out- should take over and declare "Just you wait".
They can still wait for a strategy. Meanwhile:
They should plan and plan and keep smiling but dumb except highlighting
Himantaa's shady deals.
And keep reminding people "People DESERVE the Government they Elect"- till
their time appears
And they need Consultants.Many!
mm
From: "Ram Sarangapani"
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: Barua25
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
CC: [EMAIL PROTECTED],
[email protected]
Subject: Re: [Assam] Election
results
Date: Sun, 14 May 2006 01:20:08 -0500
>Does anybody want to analyse the results of
the elections in >Assam, why AGP lost very badly and why Congress won,
and >what the results mean for Assam?
From some of the newspaper reports I read, the AGP's poor
showing had several reasons.
It seems they were aligning with the AUDF (perceived by many as supporting illegal B'deshi) on one hand,
while on the other suspected of secretly aligning with the BJP.
Further, Prafulla Mahanta's breakaway from
the party affected both the pro & anti Mahanta factions.
--Ram
Does anybody want to analyse the results of
the elections in Assam, why AGP lost very badly and why Congress won, and
what the results mean for Assam?
RB
----- Original Message -----
Ram
Sarangapani ; Rajen Barua
Sent: Friday, May 12, 2006 5:57
PM
Subject: Re: [Assam] Election
results
Kou (anyone) Nrip (King) Hamou (I) Ka (what) Hani
(loss) - meaning whoever be King what do I lose.
However, hopefully ULFA and other militants would not take up the gun
again - to drive out business and talent from the state. On the other
hand, the govt take up aggressive measures - like neighboring W Bengal -
in roping businesses . TATA is setting up plant of a $2,000 car in W
Bengal http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=126965
One of the reasons - TATA did not choose Assam could be peace another
could be pathy by state govt in wooing the business.
Returned
home to see all the 'elekshun' results.
So, what is
new?
Now that Congress will be returned to power in , what is
expected to
change in Assam's
desi-demokrasy?
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Umesh Sharma
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College Park, MD 20740
1-202-215-4328 [Cell
Phone]
Ed.M. - International Education Policy
Harvard Graduate
School of Education,
Harvard University,
Class of 2005
weblog: http://jaipurschool.bihu.in/
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