Wed, 2006-09-13 01:37
By Vinod Vedi - Syndicate Features
With the Assam Government, with the concurrence of the Centre, stating categorically that the proposed dialogue on all issues with the banned outfit United Liberation Front for Asom (ULFA) would be "within the ambit of the Constitution of India" it leaves little doubt that the promised release from jail of the five members of its executive committee will depend on a written communication to Delhi indicating its willingness to hold direct talks.
The Government of India thus put paid to any ambitions nurtured by ULFA or any other insurgent group that sovereignty of its constituent components is negotiable. If Assam (or Asom as ULFA prefers to spell it) is to remain within the Union of India then what option does ULFA but to fight to the bitter end?
Having removed any possibility of ambiguity about the status of the proposed direct negotiations, the Government clearly feels confident that it would be able to handle any possible backlash that ULFA may decide to perpetrate. To that end, the Ministry of Defence has been credited with the instructions to the armed forces to continue its counter-insurgency operations within the north-east region where the many insurgent groups have interlinkages to sustain their respective political goals.
ULFA is nevertheless in no position to dictate terms. The release of its five leaders is an acceptable proposition given that their presence at any conclave that endorses ULFA-Government direct talks would lend legitimacy to the proceedings. Delhi has expressed its willingness to release them inspite of fears expressed by the security forces that they would either go underground or flee to Bangladesh where some of those who had managed to escape the Bhutan crackdown are living. This prospect would tend to prolong the conflict. Yet it was a risk that the Government was willing to take provided ULFA agrees to direct talks and says so in writing.
Hitherto, contact between ULFA and the Government was through an 11-member People's Consultative Group (PCG) led by Ms Indira Goswami, Jnanpith Award winner. At one stage of these 'facilitation rounds' it appeared that the logjam had been broken by the assurance of Home Minister Shivraj Patil on the release of the five ULFA leaders and thus the stage was set for direct talks with ULFA. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi later clarified that the moment it received a direct communication it would release the five leaders and also announce a ceasefire.
However, the unequivocal reiteration of the supremacy of the Constitution of India has been described by the PCG as a violation of the spirit of the decisions taken at the third round in June where the steps required to create a congenial atmosphere for direct talks were discussed. In the first week of August the PCG said that it would place its "sense of the situation" report before the people of the State.
The spirit referred to was with reference to the release of the five leaders from jail but there was clear contention on the other two ULFA demands that India give in writing that the future negotiations would revolve around the issue of sovereignty; and that India would help resolve the fate of those who were missing after the crackdown by the Royal Bhutan Army on ULFA bases and sanctuaries in southern Bhutan.
For one thing it should have been apparent to any insurgent group that no political party in the saddle on the Raisina Hills could ever agree negotiating the sovereignty of the Union of India. It was wishful thinking on the part of ULFA and the crackdown by the Government of Bhutan only tended to nail down the coffin of ULFA ambitions. Its military strength has whittled down to just several hundred; so it is amply clear that ULFA would never be able to achieve its goal of independence for 'Asom'. The only option that is left is to negotiate the amount of autonomy that could devolve in the proposed dispensation.
On the issue of the missing ULFA cadres it would be very difficult for either the Government of India or that of Bhutan to be able to draw up a list of casualties during the crackdown in territory that is covered with thick jungles of the Himalayan foothills. Also the fact that many managed to escape the dragnet and flee to Bangladesh has put them in limbo because of the policy of denial of the Government of Khaleda Zia that terrorist groups are using its territory for attacks on India. If the Government of Bangladesh continues to deny the existence of ULFA cadres it will not be possible to ascertain the fate of the missing persons.
Yet efforts can be made through formal and informal contacts and through international bodies like the Red Cross but that will happen only if direct talks take place. Vice-chairman of ULFA Pradip Gogoi, one of those who is in jail, has stated categorically that sovereignty is a core issue (for ULFA). In what the Assam Government feels is an attempt to assert its strength ULFA has resorted to several bombings across the state inviting retaliatory action by security forces. To the dismay of the underground, the army and paramilitary forces have since managed to kill a few more ULFA leaders.
There is a standoff in the sense that both sides have not abjured the use of violence and even as the Army is continuing its crackdown the ULFA is trying to make its presence felt by sporadic acts of violence. In this it has the support of the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence which sees in the many insurgencies in the north-east an opportunity to avenge the creation of Bangladesh. The emergence of Islamic fundamentalist forces in Bangladesh is mainly due to connivance of the ISI and the Government of Bangladesh to deny the existence of terrorists on its soil secure in the belief that there is not going to be any hot pursuit by the Indian Army.
However, the Government of India's two-track policy of expressing a willingness to hold direct talks with ULFA within the Indian Constitution and at the same time continue with the cordon and search operations against it will tend to attrition further the strength of the fighters still available with the militant organization. There does not appear to be much possibility of the ULFA being able to recruit many new faces given that it has been bested by the Royal Bhutan Army. Notwithstanding the support of the Pakistan ISI and the Bangladesh government led by Mrs Khaleda Zia, ULFA's existence over time is tenuous at best.
If there is a change of Government in Dhaka then that will mark the death knell of several insurgent groups currently being harboured in Bangladesh because the next likely incumbent, Sheikh Hasina, would prefer better relations with India. And ULFA could be caught between a rock and a hard place.
- Syndicate Features
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