Summary of the report:
>Now the real kicker is that all this is happening when China is
institutionalizing a system of succession and inner party democracy to
enable it to continue on its current growth trajectory of around 10%.
Thus a totalitarian system better suited for thugs is getting
gentrified, while a system of democratic governance is being taken over
by thugs. It is said that Rugby is a game for hooligans played by
gentlemen, while soccer is a game for gentlemen played by hooligans. The
same thing can be said for the systems in China and India.
(Very intelligent assessment of things)
Chandan says:
>Question however is, NOW what?
The answer is NOW NOTHING!
I think it simply means that the above is another big indicator that
China will get ahead and India will fall behind in a very short time in
a big way which may (or may not) eventually break up India politically.
The other similar indicator was in the report which I recently posted on
India's progress and lack of infrastructure vis-a-vis Bangalore.
Another indicator may be the recently posted article on India's water
resources.
These indicators predict dooms for India no doubt.
However, let us not think that Indians will be smart united enough to
think and react and take actions based on these indicators quickly.
Indian middle class is now too busy enjoying the material benefits of
Capitalism to worry about such long term indicators. Probably we need
such critical analysis for many many moons to come so that people will
see the light, absorb the reality and act.
Let us also not think that such indicators will make any difference to
the average Hobo Diok Litikai Assamese who will go on electing the
Congress again and again.
Hobo Diok
Rajen
_____
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Chan Mahanta
Sent: Monday, April 02, 2007 9:02 AM
To: barua25; [email protected]
Subject: Re: [Assam] Fw: More on UP Elections
Insightful article. Thanks for sharing, Rajen. Not that we did not know
of it all along, but good to see there are others who see it too.
Question however is, NOW what?
c
At 6:30 AM -0500 4/2/07, barua25 wrote:
----- Original Message -----
From: Centre for Policy <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Alternatives
Sent: Monday, April 02, 2007 2:29 AM
Subject: More on UP Elections
Difficult Days Ahead.
Predicting the defeat of the Congress Party in the recent Punjab and
Uttaranchal elections was easy enough if one analyzed the performance of
these governments during their term in office. (See Hardnews of
September 2006 to read about the dismal performance of the Amarinder
Singh government) It is only the so-called professional psephologists
and glib television pundits who invariably get these wrong. Let us also
not forget that the India Today, which has now become India's most
popular reading in barber saloons and dentist waiting rooms, had only
last year deemed the Amarinder Singh government as India's best
performing one and had got the President of India to award him a prize.
At that time this columnist had decried the practice of the President
and high constitutional authorities being the chief guests at such
superficial beauty parades. Ordinary people are better judges of
performance and have always exhibited a great ability to discern good
government from hyped up governance, as they did in the case of
Chandrababu Naidu and SM Krishna in the recent past.
But the Prime Minister seems to be busy being a chief guest at political
beauty parades and like functions organized by the faithful, not
realizing that the faithful are faithful to the office and not to the
person. One should take the adulation of the CII and FICCI with more
than a pinch of salt, for the adulation comes with a price tag. Witness
how the State is acquiring land from the peasants using the most
unrealistic valuations to give them away to so-called developers of
SEZ's, but actually in most instances these are just gigantic real
estate plays. Many decades ago a leading industrialist, Lala Charatram,
candidly confessed: "We support the Prime Minister. We support whoever
is the Prime Minister." But Dr. Manmohan Singh would have got a truer
measure of his popularity with India's multitudes by the attendances to
his meetings in his home state of Punjab. At more than one meeting
policemen vastly outnumbered the public. I have enough Congressmen
testifying to this.
Then consider this, if he accepted the offer of Amarinder Singh to
contest the Lok Sabha elections from Amritsar, we would have had a true
world record of his being the first Prime Minister to be defeated by a
professional humorist. But then he was defeated in South Delhi by one
just a little better than that. Right now Dr. Manmohan Singh is better
off being the paying guest of the late Hiteshwar Saikia's widow in
Gauhati and returned to the Rajya Sabha by the long suffering people of
Assam. The point here is that we have a Prime Minister without a
political constituency and hence out of touch with the reality of India.
Unfortunately for him and for us, ours is a system of government by
elected politicians, and India is paying the price of having a
non-political person as its leader. More on this later.
Now the challenge of Uttar Pradesh is on hand. The only question for the
Congress Party is whether it will get more than two dozen seats or less.
We seem to be getting some early indications of how the cookie is going
to crumble with the SPG advising that Rahul Gandhi curtail his public
meetings and the MoS in the Home Ministry, Sriprakash Jaiswal, advising
Rahul Gandhi to follow the advice of the SPG. I suspect that it is not
security but attendance that is the problem. It's not always true that
people in UP vote entirely according to their caste. Caste is important,
but promise and hope are just as important. In the recent past when
political parties held out the promise of a major change in terms of
performance to meet the aspirations of people for better government, the
people of UP have responded overwhelmingly in support. Rajiv Gandhi, VP
Singh and the BJP held out credible promise of change and the people
rewarded them. It is another matter that they failed to meet the
aspirations of the people even partially. The result is that people are
being left with no option but to turn to the parties of thugs led by
Mulayam Singh and Mayawati. The Congress is yet to realize that Rahul
Gandhi and retinue of his page three princelings do not still hold out
any hope of rescuing India's biggest state from prolonged
mal-governance. For that you need to have a program based upon a true
appreciation of the problems besetting India and a promise of solutions.
Wearing a prayer cap in Deoband is not a program. It is a stunt.
The problems that beset UP are well known. Not the least among these is
that with Rs.10, 817 (per capita GDP in 2003-4), it has the second
lowest per capita income in India. This is about a third of the national
average. If one were to separate the incomes of western UP from this,
you would be left with a vast hinterland that is no better off than
Bihar (Rs. 5780). If this huge region were a separate country it would
rank right at the bottom between Burundi ($90) and Malawi ($160) in the
worlds poverty rankings. One quarter of UP lives below the official
poverty line. This official poverty line is actually a starvation line,
as it is based on an income to provide a daily food intake norm of 2400
calories. The methodology used to arrive at a conclusion as to whether
people are starving are not is utterly dubious and self serving and is
mostly meant to show the system in better light. Even so the suggestion
that almost one quarter of the socio-political heartland of India
starves everyday is a horrendous thought and the fact this is now
proving to be a stubborn challenge is a matter of great concern. The
Planning Commission just a few days ago put out a positive picture about
the reduction of the incidence of poverty (starvation) in India, but if
one just got off the tarmac roads for a kilometer or two the reality
will be apparent. The people who live here know better and all the paid
advertisements that UP is now Uttam Pradesh do not cut much slack here.
This is not just the situation in UP. It is the reality in most rural
areas of India. The State in India is in full retreat. It has largely
failed in meeting even the minimum aspirations of the people. Most rural
clusters do not have the minimum health facilities, just as they do not
have schools. Consequently the infant mortality rate is among the
highest in the world and even today almost 27% of the 15-24 age cohort
is illiterate. The State has withdrawn from establishing new irrigation
works to take water to the parched lands and has largely left it to the
peasants to dig deeper into the earth by digging deeper into their
meager resources for water for the fields. In the last twenty years the
State has not created any worthwhile irrigation and all the additional
millions of irrigated acreage have been by private tubewells. We all
know that this is ruinous to the economy and ecology, but the Government
of India still watches idly. Even the new plan being contemplated by
Montek Singh Ahluwalia shows no inclination to tackle this situation in
any realistic manner. He of course thinks it is more important to get
Wal-Mart into India as it will take care of the agriculture supply
chain? That's what you get when you have bureaucrats drawing up the
national vision.
When he first took over office, Dr.Manmohan Singh said that bureaucratic
and administrative reform will be his government's number one priority.
At that time we lauded him for his vision and commitment to reform. But
his government has done little beyond giving extensions and sinecures to
favored babus. Despite Rajiv Gandhi's known commitment to
decentralization, the party headed by his widow has apparently abandoned
the commitment to take government to the people and give them a say in
managing their daily lives. This power is not with the politician
either. It has passed into the hands of the vast bureaucracy that has
taken charge of India. It is small wonder then the biggest single item
in public spending is the burden of salaries and pensions paid to
government employees as the Central, State and Local levels. At last
count this figure stood close to Rs.195, 000 crores and is still
climbing. This should enable the reader to understand as to why the
Services sector is the fastest growing of India's three economic
sectors. For some perverse reason Public Administration expenditure is
considered a service and this sub sector is the fastest growing one
recording an 11.73% growth rate. So my friends don't think it is IT that
is propelling the growth of the Services sector.
In Dr. Manmohan Singh we thought we had a reformer. But what we got
instead was a man with a resume, he has had the best appointments anyone
can aspire to and a Cambridge degree to boot. Our mistake was that we
confused resume with record. He has now clearly lost his chance to set
things right. His term as Prime Minister is drawing to a close. He is 75
years now and we can well consider him a lame duck. He has no political
constituency and not only has shown a singular disinclination to take
the bull by the horns, but has also shown that he has no understanding
about India's problems. Nor is he performing the role of Bairam Khan and
tutoring the fledgling prince on the art of administration and the
problems of nation building. But to be fair to him the princeling has
not shown any of Akbar's enthusiasm and curiosity either. So he will
wear the prayer cap at Deoband and do other symbolic things which his
handlers will plan for him. Which means we will have to leave Uttam
Pradesh to Mulayam Singh or Mayawati? India seems heading for even more
difficult days ahead.
Now the real kicker is that all this is happening when China is
institutionalizing a system of succession and inner party democracy to
enable it to continue on its current growth trajectory of around 10%.
Thus a totalitarian system better suited for thugs is getting
gentrified, while a system of democratic governance is being taken over
by thugs. It is said that Rugby is a game for hooligans played by
gentlemen, while soccer is a game for gentlemen played by hooligans. The
same thing can be said for the systems in China and India.
Mohan Guruswamy
Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
March 26, 2007
Centre for Policy Alternatives
94, Uday Park, New Delhi - 49
Ph: 91-11-41650997, Fax: 91-11-41650996
http://www.cpasind.com
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
.
_____
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