Indian intent Nepali naiveté http://www.nepalnews.com/archive/2007/others/guestcolumn/nov/guest_columns_10.php
It is time to cast off the Nepali dread and naiveté along with India's imposing and imperialistic image. By Chiran Jung Thapa Two incidents rocked Nepal around the same time and both of them relate to India. First, Nepalis rejoiced and celebrated Prashant Tamang's Indian Idol III victory; Prashant later rocked several Nepali cities with an outstanding musical performance. Second, on a notable contrast, General Ashok Mehta - a retired Indian Army General rocked the political landscape by voicing the possibility of the Indian Army entering Nepal to help it against the destabilizing forces. Many fretted that Nepal would soon be annexed like Sikkim. But, both the street euphoria and hawkish nervousness are overdone and reflects naiveté at best Both the street euphoria over Prashant's victory and the jitters stoked by Gen. Mehta's comment reflect an uneasy Nepali outlook on India. Notwithstanding his Indian citizenship, Prashant's Nepali descent was adequate for Nepalis to reckon his victory as that of Nepal's over India. Meanwhile, given some circumstantial resemblances, an obscure comment coming from a retired Indian Army General was sufficient to foment seismic tremors in Nepal's political landscape. Nepali outlook on India While the euphoria and the trepidation succinctly capture that uneasy Nepali outlook on India, this uneasiness has never been translated into the official outlook. Hence, two divergent outlooks persist. One is the official outlook projected by the State and the other is the real public outlook. The official outlook pronounced by the State portrays India as a (elder) brotherly neighbour with whom Nepal shares history, cultural affinity and religion. Although, the official outlook attempts to display the amicability and affinity, it is hardly a genuine one. This outlook is borne out of compulsion and prudence rather than willingness. As a landlocked nation, it automatically compels Nepal to heavily rely on the goodwill of its neighbours. Since India is the chief conduit in Nepal's supply chain, it is even more imperative for Nepal to sustain a friendly relationship to ensure the flow of its supplies. Further, India's military might and economic strength commands Nepali acknowledgement and respect. The second outlook - the general public perception, however, disregards all this. The public outlook views India with suspicion and antipathy. Despite relishing on Bollywood movies and Banarasi saris, the general Nepali outlook on India has rarely been positive. The fact that the worst insult one could smear the Nepali identity with is being called an Indian succinctly reflects the visceral distaste for India. As anti-Indian sentiments simmer beneath the official outlook of unrelenting friendship, the furore and violence that spread across Nepal in 2000, after a renowned Indian actor - Hritik Roshan allegedly made incriminating statements against Nepali people, further demonstrates how minor incidents could trigger mass anti-Indian hysteria. There are varying reasons for such anti-Indian sentiments. Many Nepalis view India as an imposing imperialist who has for the longest time coveted Nepali territory. While, given the strong influence India has held over the ruling elites, others are convinced that Nepal has been transformed into a puppet state. Many also feel that India has practiced a dominating and destabilizing policy when it comes to the internal affairs of its weaker neighbouring states. Moreover, there are many Nepalis who believe that India is looking for an opportune moment to repeat the Sikkim-like conquest with Nepal. Unfeasible Annexation Certainly, the increasing Indian influence and the supine conduct of the Nepali leaders in the ruling alliance could be reckoned as clientalism and erosion of Nepali sovereignty. But, the possibility of Nepal being annexed like Sikkim is highly improbable because there are too many deterrents against such action. The first deterrent against annexation of Nepal would be the United Nations (UN). Unlike Sikkim, Nepal has been an active member of the UN since 1955 and has a long history of strong participation in the UN system. So much so that Nepal has not only adhered staunchly to the principles of the UN charter, but has also made those principles a founding ingredient of its foreign Policy. As the UN stands as a testament to an international security arrangement with certain checks and balances, the member nations in this system recognize the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a country as sacrosanct and inviolable. And if any member country's territorial integrity and sovereignty were under attack, it would behoove other members in the system to come to its aid. The second deterrent is China. Even if UN is unable come to the rescue, it will most certainly get China off its chair. China would be forced to act against such assault on a bordering nation's sovereignty, especially when it adds to its own strategic vulnerability. China has for the longest time regarded Nepal as a buffer for a more geo-strategic advantage. And although the Sino-Indian relationship is growing warmer due to globalization and other economic reasons, from a logical stand point, strategic vulnerability is bound to compel China to overlook other links to counterbalance such risks. Although it is very unlikely that China would allow India to annex a sovereign bordering nation, but for some reason if China were to remain indifferent to the Indian encroachment, the number of Nepalis serving in the Indian Armed forces would pose as the third stumbling block for India. The only way India could annex Nepal would be through the use of military force. However, that very instrument of Military Force could prove to be a double-edged sword for India because there are more than a hundred thousand Nepalis serving in Gurkha rifles regiments of the Indian Army and other Indian security agencies. The fact that there is a large number of Nepalis serving in the Indian armed forces serves as a deterrent because for India to mobilize Nepali regiments against their own native land defies rationality. Even if other regiments were deployed for the purpose, it would be difficult to restrain the Nepali regiments while their own native country was being annexed. For India, such an undertaking would only heighten the risk of a mutiny and even violence within the Indian Territory. But somehow, even if India managed to overcome all these stumbling blocks and bulldoze through with its annexation plan, Nepal's unwelcoming rugged terrain would be the fourth deterrent to keep India at bay. Given that Nepal has perhaps one of the most rugged terrains in the world, it would be quite strenuous for India to surmount an effective military operation. Undeniably, it would be a cakewalk for India to take over Nepali strategic points of importance. India has such military capability that it could probably accomplish the mission of taking control of critical Nepali assets by only deploying a portion of its air power and employing vertical envelopment maneuvers. However, sustaining control would require the infantry units. That would undoubtedly prove costly because of the wide room for asymmetric warfare, especially the use of guerrilla tactics - which the Nepalis (Maoists) have adequately proven to be adept at. Additionally, India must have taken the lesson from the current examples of Afghanistan and Iraq as to how torturous asymmetric warfare could prove to be even for the best armies. India's discomfiting relationship with almost all its neighbours could serve as yet another encumbrance against any annexation plans. It has a cut-throat relationship with Pakistan. It has fought a war with China. Indian intervention in Sri Lankan conflict has certainly strained bi-lateral relationship. Bitter border disputes with Bangladesh still sour the Indo-Bangla relationship. In Bhutan - India's only client state, the burgeoning Bhutanese elites are finding Indian influence over its sovereignty less appetizing. And in Nepal, despite the pliant demeanour of the ruling elites, the celebration in the streets that followed Prashant Tamang's victory says it all. So any annexation endeavours would only add to the security dilemma of its neighbours and put India's relationship with its neighbours in further jeopardy. Given all these bulwarks, it would be naive to even presume that India would make any attempts to annex Nepal. For, India understands these dynamics and its regional image all too well. Ambiguous Indian Intent? Regardless of India's understanding of such dynamics, however, Indian intent vis-à-vis Nepal has been ambiguous and difficult to speculate. While remaining mute over the Bhutanese autocracy, the authoritarian government of Maldives and even supporting the dictatorial junta of Burma and Bangladesh, India's interest in restoration of democracy in Nepal looks awkward and sinister. What is even more sinister is the Indian policy of supporting the Maoists, the political parties and to a certain extent even the monarchy. It is no secret that while on one hand India had declared the Maoists as terrorists even before Nepal did, India was surreptitiously playing host to the Maoist leadership through most of the insurgency years. Also, it was only after the Indian nod of approval that the Monarch took charge from the political parties. But on the other hand, it was India that brokered a deal between the parties and the Maoists and then abetted their alliance to oust the Monarch from power. Even more strangely, one of the reasons why the current ruling alliance has been unable to completely abolish the monarchy can be attributed to the Indian nay. Even though ambiguities have made it very difficult to comprehend the Indian intent vis-a vis Nepal, there is one inalienable truth that Nepal needs to understand. That is, India is neither a benevolent brother nor is it an ill-intentioned imperialist. Rather, it is an astute political entity in the global political order - which is in continuous pursuit of its national objectives and promotion of its national interests. Whether it is by supporting dictatorial juntas or decadent democrats, the bedrock of Indian policy is that it will do all that is necessary and within its reach as long as there is some tangible benefit to the Indian polity. Taking that fact into account, it is apparent that it could hardly be in the best interest of India to annex Nepal. For, harm greatly outweighs the benefits in such an endeavour. Moving forward The locus of concern, however, should not be whether India will annex Nepal but on the misconception that Indo-Nepal relationship has been sullied. In fact, today, Indo-Nepal relationship has reached a critical juncture as the bi-lateral relationship is strewn by landmines of mutual mistrust. In Nepal, there is more anti-Indian sentiment brewing than ever before. This is mainly due to the fact that the Indian brokered peace accord has failed abysmally. The dividend of Peace aside, this transition period has only polarized the Nepali society and public insecurity has soared at a dizzying rate. And Nepalis are increasingly linking all this to the India's brokering role. Frequent surreptitious border encroachment and continued harassment and intimidation of Nepalis living on the Indo-Nepal border by the Seema Suraksha Bal (SSB) has only added to that disenchantment. Furthermore, the perception that India's hand is behind the unrest in Terai makes matters even worse. On the other hand, India feels let down too. Many analysts reckon that India is extremely disappointed with the political parties that it helped unite for the purpose of peace dividend. Hence from the Indian perspective, probably only Nepal is to blame for all its political mess. Also as the constituent assembly elections has been postponed twice and is looking even more uncertain, it calls into question India's judgment and the faith it put on the current ruling alliance. Overall, Nepal's failed peace process has certainly marred India's image as a broker and guarantor of Peace at the international level – which must have utterly upset India. Given this strain in the bi-lateral relationship, there is an urgent need for both countries to re-evaluate their respective positions because there is a huge gulf between perception and reality. Since the current relationship does not corroborate with real sentiments and aspirations, it is time for both countries to understand the dynamics and cement a genuine friendship. All India has to do to shed that imperialistic and meddlesome image and become a truly benevolent brotherly neighbour is straight forward. It simply has to re-envisage a new plan and help Nepal get the derailed peace process back on track. India has to understand the fact that other than the Nepalis themselves, it is the sole international actor with the capability to deliver the panacea for Nepal's woes. By helping deliver the peace dividend that the Nepali populace has been yearning for, India would earn an undying gratitude and respect from the Nepali populace. Given the sea of hostile sentiments against it, it would be quite a feat for India to earn that kind of respect for change. Likewise, more than India, it is Nepal that needs to get its act together because an enormous opportunity of growth and progress is being squandered by not being able to capitalize from the proximity and relationship with India. It is time to cast off the Nepali dread and naiveté along with India's imposing and imperialistic image. After all, Prashant's Tamang's victory is truly a mutual victory. *(Thapa lives in New York and can be reached at [EMAIL PROTECTED]<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> *)* (Editor's Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to [EMAIL PROTECTED])
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