TOP STORIES A few surrenders of ULFA cadres mean little http://in.news.yahoo.com/071128/48/6ntu6.html
<http://in.rd.yahoo.com/expressnews/SIG=11738n0j1/**http%3A%2F%2Fwww.expressindia.com%2F> By IE *Thursday November 29, 02:23 AM* Assam is in the news for all the wrong reasons. While new problems, like renewed adivasi activism, have surfaced before the Gogoi government, the old ones remain. One recent development however has given hope: the recent surrender of ULFA cadres. At least 118 of them have laid down their arms over the month of October and November. Both the government and the army have claimed it is the success of their policies. However, there are several pertinent questions to be answered. For one, this is not the first time we have seen such mass surrenders. The point is that they have not led to a decline of ULFA as an organisation. The outfit has always been able to successfully regroup even after such reversals. ULFA's traditional recruitment base - in the Nalbari district of Lower Assam and in pockets in the Dibrugarh and Tinsukia districts of Upper Assam - has over the years seen fewer recruits. The cadre composition has also been widely diversified. ULFA has also adopted a change in tactics. It now focuses on attacking urban centres, leaving rural areas largely free of such terror. This helps maintain at least a semblance of a support base in rural areas , crucial for networking. It is also important to remember that in such a long-drawn-out movement, instances of demoralisation among cadres are inevitable. The cadres, living separated from their families for a long time and fielding threats to their very survival, sometimes succumb to prospects of leading a normal life. However, it is important to make a distinction between the dilemmas facing ordinary cadres and those of the top leaders. In many of these surrenders, it is not hardcore cadres that figure, but ordinary foot soldiers. Unemployment is a major trigger for youth joining ULFA. They see it as an easy way out of their problems. The outfit, exploiting their discontentment, lures them into the organisation. It is only after the hardships of their new life becomes more manifest that disillusionment sets in and the incentives offered by the government begin to appear attractive. It is important therefore to discover whether these surrenders actually mean a surrender of faith or a surrender in the face of overwhelming circumstances. Only when we understand this can we assess the future of ULFA. Assam needs more tangible evidence of the undermining of ULFA. Surrenders of a few cadres could be deceptive. Indeed, the state should now brace up for further attacks by ULFA, which it will carry out, if only to show that it still has the strength and will to strike despite desertion by a few. *The author is a researcher at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi* _______________________________________________ assam mailing list [email protected] http://assamnet.org/mailman/listinfo/assam_assamnet.org
