Changing demographic structure of Assam
Dr Bimal K Kar
With a diverse population in respect of ethnicity, religion and language
having varied socio-cultural practices, Assam is characterised by a very high
rate of population growth which has been even higher than the countrys average
almost throughout the last century. The States population was 3.29 million in
1901 and it increased to 26.65 million in 2001 by experiencing an average
annual exponential growth rate of 2.11 per cent during 1901-2001 as against the
countrys 1.47 per cent. As a consequence, the share of the States population
to the countrys total increased from 1.38 per cent in 1901 to 2.59 per cent in
2001. Such a high growth rate has a number of far reaching demographic
implications, including changes in the ethno-linguistic and religious
composition of population in the State.
In the post-Independence period, the decennial growth of population in the
State both during 1951-61 and 1961-71 was as high as 35 per cent as against the
countrys average growth of 24.8 per cent. This contributed to a net increase
of 18.6 million people during 1951-2001. The sharp fall of death rates along
with a very slow decline of birth rates and migration contributed immensely to
such rates of populatiom growth. A host of inter-related socio-economic factors
such as universalisation of marriage, marriage at a lower age, illiteracy,
poverty, high infant mortality, etc might be responsible for keeping the birth
rate still considerably high here as elsewhere in the country. Besides, large
volume of migration from both outside and within the country played a major
role in the alarmingly high growth of population from 1951-1991 in the State.
Immigration and migration of population having varied socio-economic levels
have to a great extent influenced the very demographic
scenario in the State. For instance, high total fertility rate and child-woman
ratio as prevalent particularly among the Muslims of non-indigeous origin have
been responsible for high rate of population among them in the State. In
contrast, it is important to note that as compared to the volume of
immigration, the size of exodus from this State is still very insignificant
because of relative absence of mobility of the indigenous people until the
recent past. In the case of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes in the State,
the average annual growth rates for the period 1971-1991 were as high as 3.03
per cent and 2.95 per cent respectively as against the general population
(non-scheduled) growth rate of only 1.95 per cent. But it is quite interesting
and surprising to note that the annual growth rate during 1991-2001 declined in
such a way that it has become significantly lower among both Scheduled Castes
(0.96 per cent) and Scheduled Tribes (1.42 per cent) than that of
the general population (1.87 per cent). Moreover, the annual growth rate of
Scheduled Tribe population during 1991-2001 has become even negative in the
Boro-dominated tribal districts of Kokrajhar (-0.77 per cent) and Bongaigaon
(-2.43 per cent). Except for internal redistribution of tribal population
across the State resulting in considerable decline and rise of tribal people in
some districts, there is no valid reason to explain such a low rate of
population growth among the Scheduled Tribes in Assam.
However, in the case of major religious groups like the Hindus, Muslims and
Christians in the State, although there has been significant decline in the
average annual growth rate of population among all of them since 1971, it is
found to be still remarkably higher among the Muslims (2.60 per cent) and
Christians (2.86 per cent) than that of the Hindus (1.40 per cent) during
1991-2001. Again, in the same period, the annual growth rates are found to vary
between 0.35 per cent (Bongaigaon district) and 2.13 per cent (Kamrup district)
among the Hindus, while between 1.31 per cent (Dibrugarh district) and 4.00 per
cent (Dhemaji district) among the Muslims in Assam. Although the occurrence of
high growth rate in recent time mainly among the Muslims is largely associated
with poverty and illiteracy, the contribution of migration, religious influence
and religious conversion can never be ruled out.
Due to the prevalence of considerably high fertility rate, the age composition
of population in Assam still remains almost similar to that of many less
developed countries of the world with higher burden of children population.
Although the proportion of children population (0-14 age group) in the State
has witnessed a decline from 47.0 per cent to 37.4 per cent during 1971-2001,
it is still far from satisfactory. The proportion of children of age group 0-6
in the State has witnessed a very negligible fall from 19.73 per cent to 16.9
per cent during 1991-2001. But what is more important here is prevailing
variation in the proportion of children in age group 0-6 among different
population groups in the State. Being influenced by considerably low population
growth rates with slight variation among the SC, ST and General in the State,
the proportion of children in age group 0-6 (as per 2001 census) is found to
vary from 16.00 per cent (SC) to 17.0 per cent (General) through
16.7 per cent (ST). There is, however, spatial variation in this respect, with
14.3 per cent (NC Hills) to 20.0 per cent (Dhemaji) among the SC; 12.5 per cent
(Dibrugarh) to 19.5 per cent (Karbi Anglong) among the ST; and 12.9 per cent
(Jorhat) to 21.1 per cent (Dhubri) among the General category.
The contribution of varied and changing population growth rates among the SC
and ST is clearly observed in the changing proportions of population among them
in Assam during 1971-2001. It is found that due to higher growth among SC
during 1971-1991 (81.84 per cent), the proportion of SC people in Assam
increased from 6.24 per cent in 1971 to 7.40 per cent in 1991, and subsequently
lowering down of growth during 1991-2001 (10.03 per cent), the proportion among
them again decreased to 6.9 per cent in 2001. This is also true in the case of
ST, which witnessed a rise in the proportion from 10.38 per cent in 1971 to
12.82 per cent in 1991, and again decreased to 12.40 per cent due to lowering
growth during 1991-2001 (15.10 per cent). This phenomenon is clearly observed
among the SC in the districts of Goalpara, Nalbari, Kamrup, Dhemaji and Cachar,
and among the ST in the districts of Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon, Dhemaji, Morigaon,
Nagaon, Golaghat, Karbi Anglong and NC Hills. However,
a few districts like Jorhat and Tinsukia in the case of SC, and Sonitpur,
Jorhat and Tinsukia in the case of ST have been witnessing gradually rising
trend of proportions among them.
The impact of varied population growth rates among the major religious groups
in Assam has been clearly observed in the changing proportions of population
among them and also the overall growth rates of populations that with
considerably low and declining growth rate of population among the Hindus
during 1971-2001, the proportion among them has decreased from 72.51 per cent
in 1971 to 64.89 per cent in 2001 in the State as a whole. Although all the
districts in Assam have witnessed the same phenomenon, it is found to be
striking (more than 10 per cent decline) in Dhubri, Bongaigaon, Goalpara,
Barpeta, Darrang and Nagaon districts. On the other side, with considerably
high and rising growth rate of population, the Muslims witnessed a significant
increase in their proportion of population from 24.56 per cent in 1971 to as
high as 30.92 per cent in 2001. In fact, the areas where there has been decline
in the proportion of Hindus during 1971-2001 have experienced increase in
the proportion of Muslims, and in the process the number of Muslim-dominated
districts in the State has increased from two (Dhubri and Hailakandi) in 1971
to as many as six (Dhubri, Hailakandi, Goalpara, Barpeta, Nagaon and Karimganj)
in 2001, and another one (Morigaon) is going to be added during the 2011
census. Hence, it is clear that the prevailing varying pattern of population
growth among different groups in Assam is likely to bring about even more
change in the demographic structure in near future with far-reaching
socio-economic and political implications.
In view of such a situation, every effort needs to be initiated to check the
population growth rates among all the groups in the State through equitable
socio-economic development among the masses.
(The writer serves as Reader in the Department of Geography, Gauhati University)
Assam Tribune Editorial 25.02.08
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