Pollsters cannot rule Assam's polity
By Ranen Kumar Goswami The voters in Assam turned out in massive numbers to elect a new Assembly and thus demolished the claim by some self-styled leaders that the people of the State are fed up with Indian democracy. The electoral verdict now remains captured in EVMs, to be treasured in strong rooms till May 13. The stakes are high, the principal contenders rich and powerful and their copter-savvy leaders who sold their share of dreams to the voters during the campaign, are now busy planning what they will do if the results favour them or vice-versa. A section of the media, shamelessly partisan and with conflicting interests have already indicated in intemperate language why the party or combination of parties they are campaigning for will win. At the ground level, there was no wave for or against any party. But there were waves sweeping newspaper pages or television screens for or against some or the other political formation. The results were crosscurrents in the reader's or the viewer's mind, with a clash of waves leaving them in utter confusion. Can biased media decide the elections? Or for that matter, can even psephologists without scientific and extensive groundwork predict results? In 2006 Assembly elections, a section of newspapers had created waves for a particular party and dropped frequents hints that the leader of that party was going to be the next chief Minister. But voters had other thoughts in mind. The results were devastating, which amply proved media waves alone cannot dictate voter preferences. Two years earlier in 2004 there was a general election in the country. It presented interesting contrasts between pre-poll predictions by psephologists and post-poll results. A PTI report on March 27, 2004 said: “The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is expected to get a majority in the coming Lok Sabha elections, bagging 287 to 307 seats, according to an opinion poll conducted for NDTV and the Indian Express by A.C Nielson. The survey, claimed to be the largest-ever opinion poll, covered a sample of 45,000 people in 207 constituencies, 80 per cent of them in rural areas. The survey gave the BJP a total of 190 to 210 seats and the Congress 95 to 105 seats, with others accounting for 90 to 100 seats.” On the same day the agency reported about another survey, which said: “The BJP-led NDA is likely to get over 265 seats in the country in the coming Lok Sabha elections followed by the Congress and its allies at 196 plus seats, according to an opinion poll conducted for Zee News by Taleem.” After the first phase of polling on April 20, 2004, the behaviour of exit polls provoked this editorial comment from The Times of India in its April 22, 2004 issue: “A curious thing happened during the first phase of polling. With three more rounds yet to come, much of the media handed over victory to the NDA-led coalition. Such a premature awarding of laurels raises a number of questions on the philosophy and methodology of exit polls. In the course of an earlier debate, exit polls were vindicated by virtue of the fact they were part of the constitutional right to the freedom of expression. …......... However, a case could equally be made that publicising the results of such polls before the conclusion of all phases of elections could pre-judge and prejudice the eventual outcome. Indeed, exit polls in this sense would be a curtailment of the freedom of expression, especially given that the individual political choice would be unduly influenced by the media hyperbole inevitably attending such poll findings.........................In a heterogeneous polity such as India, a premature reading of exit poll results could create a very skewed impression of the eventual outcome. For example, voting trends in one part of an individual State need not be replicated in other parts of the State. …..............By glossing over such significant variations, exit polls seek to impose a homogeneity on the country's variegated political landscape and as such compromise the primacy of individual choice which is the basis of any democratic exercise.” After saying all this, the editorial made the remark: “Perhaps it is for all these reasons that exit polls have been notoriously wide off the mark in the past..................... After all, exit polls are not the real thing, but only a very sketchy model of the reality on the ground. In that sense they are only an illusion of the actual political patterns that obtain in different parts of the country.” Exit polls on television channels after the final phase of Lok Sabha elections on May 10, 2004, put the NDA ahead of others in the race. Aaj Tak gave the BJP and its allies 248 seats, the Congress and its allies 190 seats and others 105. The Zee-Taleem poll too put the BJP-led front's tally at 249. Other polls gave the NDA an outside chance of making it to the halfway mark of 272. The Star-C-Voter poll gave it 263-275 seats and Sahara-DRS poll between 263 and 278. And what were the final results? They were a shocker. The final tally turned pre-poll predictions upside down. The NDA bagged 186 seats that forced its ouster from power, the Congress and its allies got 217 seats that facilitated its return to power and others got 136 seats. The outcome proved, if any proof was needed, that electoral astrology is not a safe thing, especially in a complex society that is India. Electoral astrology is not safe in Assam either. Assam is also a complex society with various socio-political factors at play. Not only the 2006 Assembly elections, even in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, partisan media outlets failed to persuade electors to vote in a particular way. But they refuse to learn any lesson. This time around, they openly sided with one or the other principal contender and created furious waves on their pages or screens for their blue-eyed boys. If a contender was a prospective winner on the pages or screens of some media outlets, he or she was a sure loser on the pages or screens of some others. Some analysts were too eager to suit their analysis to the way the channels they appeared on wanted. This jugglery was on full display during the campaign period. After the results on May 13, if one claim were to come true, the others would prove false. As such, loss of credibility by one or the other section of the media is a certainty. Claimants to the throne are now busy making permutations and combinations. The principal contenders are the Congress and the Asom Gana Parishad. Since, a hung House is a foregone conclusion notwithstanding what the parties say for the benefit of the gallery, lesser players are waiting at the wings for a call to the Cabinet. In State politics, they are the BJP, BPF, BPPF and AIUDF. The CPI also tasted power in 1996-2001 by dint of being a member of the AGP-led coalition. What are their public claims after the final phase of polling on April 11? Assam Pradesh Committee chief Bhubaneswar Kalita claimed his party would win 51 seats. Next day on April 12, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi told a Press meet in Guwahati that the Congress would bag at least 63 seats and form the Government with the BPF. On the other hand, AGP president Chandra Mohan Patowary claimed at a Press meet in the city on April 13 that his party would make a comeback to power with its own tally of 51 to 53 seats and support of other like-minded parties. The BPF has claimed it will win at least 16 seats, while the BPPF is also confident it will considerable number of seats. BJP leader Vijoy Goel has claimed his party will bag 25 to 30 seats. AIUDF president Badaruddin Ajmal has already declared in his campaign meetings that his party will play a decisive role in government formation this time. But we know, Assam's heterogeneous polity cannot be taken for granted. Come May 13, its verdict may throw up many a surprise and cut the biased pollsters down to their size. (The Assam Tribune, Thursday, April 21, 2011) _______________________________________________ assam mailing list [email protected] http://assamnet.org/mailman/listinfo/assam_assamnet.org
