Dear Friends:
An immigrant is seldom welcome in any country. In spite of stringent,
ever-tightening immigration laws, people, both black and white
continue to arrive in this small country of Great Britain, either
legally or illegally. . Please read the following article which
appeared in today's Independent (3 12 2011).
Is there a lesson here for us to learn?
-bhuban
George Osborne's economic strategy rests on continued high levels of
immigration to Britain – in contrast to the Conservatives' policy of
cutting net migration down to the "tens of thousands".
The Government will find itself in the position of either having to
allow continued immigration in the hundreds of thousands or
jeopardising the country's economic recovery, according to its own
fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Ministers will not reduce average annual immigration down to the "tens
of thousands" over the course of this parliament according to the OBR's
projections. Instead, net inward migration to Britain will remain at an
average of 140,000 a year until 2016, it says, despite repeated
promises from Conservative ministers that they will reduce immigration
flows to substantially below these levels.
If ministers were to succeed in reducing immigration down to their
target, the UK's growth would be damaged, the OBR's economists believe
– acknowledging the role that immigration plays in Britain's economic
health. The forecast is embarrassing for David Cameron and the Home
Secretary, Theresa May, who have repeatedly insisted that the Tory
manifesto pledge will be met.
The OBR said: "Our assumption for population growth is based on average
net inward migration of 140,000 per annum over the forecast period
[2011-16]." Net migration to the UK in 2010 was 252,000, according to
the Office for National Statistics, the highest level on record.
Tory ministers have consistently stressed that their objective is to
bring down net migration to Britain to "tens of thousands" a year
before the end of this parliament. Mr Cameron reiterated this objective
in October.
The Home Office argues that, since the OBR's 140,000-a-year net
migration figure is an average over five years it is consistent with
immigration levels dipping below 100,000 in future years of this
parliament. But the average flows over the parliament would still be
considerably in excess of ministers' targets. And the OBR's estimate –
which it first made in June 2010 – has not changed despite the
immigration control measures introduced by the Coalition over the past
18 months.
The OBR has also pointed out that falls in immigration would have
economic implications. Reductions in net immigration would have a
negative impact on UK growth, the fiscal watchdog said in November last
year. "If migrants have a similar employment rate and level of
productivity to the existing average, a reduction or increase in
population growth of 0.1 per cent would translate one-for-one to a
reduction or increase in trend growth of 0.1 per cent respectively."
Jonathan Portes, the director of the National Institute of Economic and
Social Research, said the OBR would have to revise down its growth and
deficit forecasts if the watchdog believed the Government was likely to
succeed in cutting immigration. "Less immigration would mean fewer
workers paying tax," he said.
The Immigration minister, Damian Green, said: "We have introduced a
limit on non-EU workers and radically overhauled the student visa
system to cut abuse. We will also be announcing restrictions on the
right to settle here and reforms of the family migration route.
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