Dear Friends:
This is from the Opinion columns of the new York Times through Google though the heading has slightly changed (April 8, 2012) -bhuban America's new place in the world New forms of governance and capitalism are being forged by China, Middle East and other rising nations by Charles A Kupchan 04:45 AM Apr 09, 2012 It's election season again and the main contenders for the Oval Office are knocking themselves out to reassure Americans that their nation remains at the pinnacle of the global pecking order. Mr Mitt Romney recently declared that "this century must be an American century". Not to be outdone, President Barack Obama insisted that "anyone who tells you that America is in decline" doesn't "know what they're talking about". Mr Romney and Mr Obama might be overdoing it a bit, but they're actually not far off the mark. Despite two draining wars, sluggish growth, a diffusion of power from the West to China and the "rising rest", a combination of economic resilience and military superiority will keep the US at or near the top for decades. Still, they're missing the point. The most potent challenge to America's dominance comes not from the continuing redistribution of global power, but from a subtler change: The new forms of governance and capitalism being forged by China and other rising nations. OWN VERSIONS OF MODERNITY The democratic, secular and free-market model that has become synonymous with the era of Western primacy is being challenged by state capitalism in China, Russia and the Persian Gulf sheikdoms. Political Islam is rising in step with democracy across the Middle East. And left-wing populism is taking hold from India to Brazil. Rather than following the West's path of development and obediently accepting their place in the liberal international order, rising nations are fashioning their own versions of modernity and pushing back against the West's ideological ambitions. As this century unfolds, sustaining American power will be the easy part. The hard part will be adjusting to the loss of America's ideological dominance and fashioning consensus and compromise in an increasingly diverse and unwieldy world. If American leaders remain blind to this new reality and continue to expect conformity to Western values, they will not only misunderstand emerging powers, but also alienate the many countries tired of being herded towards Western standards of governance. CHINA'S STATE CAPITALISM This transition won't be easy. Since the founding era, the American elite and the public have believed in the universality of their model. The end of the Cold War only deepened this conviction; after the collapse of the Soviet Union, democratic capitalism seemed the only game in town. But the supposed "end of history" didn't last. Many developing nations have recently acquired the economic and political wherewithal to consolidate brands of modernity that present durable alternatives. The last 30 years of Chinese development, for example, look nothing like the path followed by Europe and North America. The West's ascent was led by its middle class, which overturned absolute monarchy, insisted on a separation of church and state and unleashed the entrepreneurial and technological potential vital to the Industrial Revolution. In contrast, the authoritarian Chinese state has won over its middle class and with reason: Its economy outperforms those of Western competitors, enriching its bourgeoisie and lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. And in today's fast and fluid global economy, the control afforded by state capitalism has its distinct advantages, which is precisely why Russia, Vietnam and other countries are following China's lead. POLITICAL ISLAM RETURNS The Middle East is similarly set to confound American expectations. Participatory politics may be arriving in the region, but most of the Muslim world recognises no distinction between the realms of the sacred and the secular; mosque and state are inseparable, ensuring that political Islam is returning as coercive regimes fall. A poll last year revealed that nearly two-thirds of Egyptians want civil law to adhere strictly to the Quran, one of the main reasons Islamists recently prevailed in the country's parliamentary elections. And Egypt is the rule, not the exception. If nothing else, the Arab Spring has shown that democratisation does not equal Westernisation and that it is past time for Washington to rethink its long-standing alignment with the region's secular parties. INDIA, BRAZIL: STANDING UP TO AMERICA True, rising powers like India and Brazil are stable, secular democracies that appear to be hewing closely to the Western model. But these countries have democratised while their populations consist mainly of the urban and rural poor, not the middle class. As a result, both nations have embraced a left-wing populism wary of free markets and of representative institutions that seem to deliver benefits only to a privileged elite. Rising democracies are also following their own paths on foreign policy, foiling America's effort to turn India into a strategic partner. New Delhi is at odds with Washington on issues ranging from Afghanistan to climate change and it is deepening commercial ties with Iran just as America is tightening sanctions. Standing up to America still holds cachet in India and Brazil, one reason New Delhi and Brasilia line up with Washington less than 25 per cent of the time at the United Nations. Washington has long presumed that the world's democracies will, as a matter of course, ally themselves with the US; common values supposedly mean common interests. But if India and Brazil are any indication, even rising powers that are stable democracies will chart their own courses, expediting the arrival of a world that no longer plays by Western rules. FIRST TIME IN HISTORY The 21st century will not be the first time the world's major powers embraced quite different models of governance and commerce: During the 17th century, the Holy Roman Empire, Ottoman Empire, Mughal Empire, Qing Dynasty and Tokugawa Shogunate each ran its affairs according to its own distinct rules and culture. But these powers were largely self-contained; they interacted little and thus had no need to agree on a set of common rules to guide their relations. This century, in contrast, will be the first time in history in which multiple versions of order and modernity coexist in an interconnected world; no longer will the West anchor globalisation. Multiple power centres and the competing models they represent, will vie on a more level playing field. Effective global governance will require forging common ground amid an equalising distribution of power and rising ideological diversity. With that in mind, Washington should acknowledge that America's brand of capitalism and secular democracy must now compete in the marketplace of ideas. To be sure, even as it adopts a more pluralistic approach, the US should defend not just its interests, but also its values. It should continue to promote democracy, stand resolute in the defence of human rights and do what it can to stop indiscriminate violence of the sort unleashed by Syria's government. But American leaders do their country no service when they trumpet a new American century or topple governments in the name of spreading Western values. Doing so will drive away the very nations the US needs on its side to confront dangerous pariahs and manage a world in which power is broadly shared. Standing by its own values while also recognising that there are alternative forms of responsible and responsive governance would ultimately elevate the nation's moral authority, making it more likely that other countries would be as respectful of America's preferences as America should be of theirs. THE NEW YORK TIMES Charles A Kupchan is a professor of international relations at Georgetown, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of No One's World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn. _______________________________________________ assam mailing list [email protected] http://assamnet.org/mailman/listinfo/assam_assamnet.org
