Hi C'da,

> It might seem like a good reason to try and end the conflict, by GoI
> holding negotiations with ULFA, wouldn't you think?

Most will agree with you here. Ulfa-Center negotiations are important
and a peaceful resoultion must come about for whatever progress Assam
can salvage from years of conflict.

Refering to Baruah's anaylses: He makes several good points. But see
below, from Baruah's article.

*Apart from the cadre, the Ulfa leadership also faces the question of
*explaining a radical shift to its sympathizers, especially to those who
*have lost loved ones. How will it explain a complete turn-around of goals
*and strategy to them? 

If this is true, then it is not promising, well either for
negotiations with Ulfa  or future factional groups that may be
dissatisfied with anything the Ulfa leadership can get out of a
possible peaceful settlement.

And if, what Baruah says is true, it gives one an insight into the
makeup of Ulfa's leadership hold on its cadres. How strong are these
holds? Will the leaders be able to explain away a less then desired
outcome (or sans sovereignty) to their cadres? Will that, in turn
create still more disgruntled groups?

>The usually loud and  rancorous net has been awfully quiet. I hope it
was not >because I was  not there to ignite passions :-).

That could well be true. I think the net goes thru these phases. But
its good to have you back.

--Ram


On 7/21/05, Chan Mahanta <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Hi Ram:
> 
> 
> It might seem like a good reason to try and end the conflict, by GoI
> holding negotiations with ULFA, wouldn't you think?
> 
> Apparently not everyone thinks so. I liked the article written by
> Sanjib Baruah, a sane voice amongst the cacophony of those who would
> rather not see that happen.
> 
> I had been horribly busy, that was why the short sabbatical. But
> looks like you guys dropped the ball too. The usually loud and
> rancorous net has been awfully quiet. I hope it was not because I was
> not there to ignite passions :-).
> 
> c-da
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> At 9:48 AM -0500 7/21/05, Ram Sarangapani wrote:
> >"The casualty figures for extremists and security personnel were
> >104and 17 respectively in Assam, which shows that militants
> >succeeded inkilling much more civilians than security men"
> >As usual the innocent pay the price. Nearly 200 of them in '04.
> >Militancy claimed 315 lives in '04 By Sivasish Thakur GUWAHATI, July
> >20 - Militancy-related violence claimed a total of 315lives,
> >including 194 civilians, in Assam last year. The civiliancasualty
> >was also the highest in the State among the north-easternStates. In
> >comparison, Manipur, Tripura and Nagaland recorded 62, 67and 42
> >civil casualties respectively during the same period.
> >The casualty figures for extremists and security personnel were
> >104and 17 respectively in Assam, which shows that militants
> >succeeded inkilling much more civilians than security men.
> >On the positive side, the total cases of extremist-related violence
> >inthe State showed a marked decline at 267, compared to 358 in 2003.
> >Thenumber of lives lost, too, was much more at 401 in 2003. Last
> >yearalso saw the surrender of 742 militants, while 161 were arrested.
> >Kidnapping also came down drastically in all these States.
> >The figures were revealed in a recent report of the Union Home Ministry.
> >Manipur and Tripura were the other two States that continued to
> >beaffected by militancy, recording 320 and 212 cases of
> >violencerespectively. While the number of people killed in Manipur
> >was 212,Tripura's casualty list stood at 164.
> >The maximum number of extremists killed was in Manipur with a toll
> >of112, while Tripura accounted for the highest security
> >personnelcasualty with a total of 46. Manipur came a close second
> >with 38.Manipur also topped the list of militancy-related violence
> >with 320incidents.
> >Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh recorded 47 and 41 cases of
> >extremistviolence last year, resulting in the loss of 47 and 43
> >livesrespectively. Mizoram, as usual, remained the most peaceful
> >State. Itrecorded just three incidents of violence, with three
> >militant deathsand an equal number arrested. There was no civilian
> >casualty, whileonly one person was kidnapped.
> >_______________________________________________
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