Brian, I can’t answer specifically for Matthew, but I can answer in general.
The predictions use the GFS weather model and then run the WRF forecasting engine based on a set of parameters to determine which meteorological theories are used. If the GFS model has “failed”, or the theories don;t match reality, then the predictions will be out. From my experience setting up the VSA Server this year, which I suspect is very similar to SkySight in terms of software and parameters used, I have detected that when we have a “wet” trough, the predictions are not very good - we tend to get much more mid and high cloud than predicted, and slightly lower temperatures, which means the thermals are much further apart and weaker than expected, and rarely form from an identifiable source. Troughs in general are not well predicted by the GFS model in terms of timing of movement at the resolution we want - 10 years ago, a 12km resolution was considered detailed. The VSA Server is running a 2km resolution at the moment for “today” and “tomorrow”, and 6km for the following 4 days. We are predicting convergences to within a couple of km and gust fronts to within 5 minutes, which is impossible at 12km resolution. Neither of us are trained meteorologists, however, I believe that in general, the predictions both SkySight and the VSA server have been producing this year have been far better than anything we have seen before. For instance, the VSA Server in general has been much closer to predicting surface temperature than either BOM or WeatherZone, but it’s not perfect. Matt > On 20 Dec 2016, at 10:12 , Brian Du Rieu <[email protected]> wrote: > > Hi Matthew, > > Not sure what happened to SkySight yesterday but none of the cloud associated > with the cold front/ trough that passed through Horsham around 5pm was > displayed. Lots of high based Cu and Ci at altitude. > > Best regards, > Brian DuRieu > > Ph.: 049-598 046 > > > From: Matthew Scutter <[email protected]> > To: Tom & Kerrie Claffey <[email protected]> > Cc: Gliding Australia Forum <[email protected]>; Discussion of > issues relating to Soaring in Australia. <[email protected]> > Sent: Saturday, 17 September 2016, 16:52 > Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] [gfaforum] DIana 2 > > The glider Ron is referring to, is the GP14 Velo http://www.gpgliders.com/ > <http://www.gpgliders.com/> , which is still under construction as far as I > know, and nothing to do with the Diana 2. > > The Diana 2 is type certified, as of last year. > https://www.easa.europa.eu/system/files/dfu/TCDS_A_451_SZD-56_Diana_issue_02.pdf > > <https://www.easa.europa.eu/system/files/dfu/TCDS_A_451_SZD-56_Diana_issue_02.pdf> > The 13.5m Diana 2 "Versus" exists and is almost certainly the best 13.5m > glider. > > Beres Bogumił, the man behind the Diana 2 passed away earlier in the year. > What happened after that is a bit murky, but my understanding is the assets > were sold to SZD (there's multiple SZD's, it's confusing), who is once again > producing the Diana 2, and *allegedly* producing one with a fuselage that has > lower angle of attack on the ground, and an 18m stretch. > > > > > On Sat, Sep 17, 2016 at 3:30 PM, Tom & Kerrie Claffey <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > Nope, > The Versus (13.5M experimental version of Diana2) was flown by Stefano > Giorgio who won the first 13.5M WGC in it. The glider Sebastian was going to > fly, but they ran out of time, is a different, all new glider. > Since then the 13.5 M class is supposed to go electric self launch. > I think the 15M Diana 2 is soon out of the WGC due to time from prototype to > certification. > (There is some limit) > Having seen a few of them I would not own one, talk to Mak. > > Tom > ... > > On Saturday, 17 September 2016, Ron Sanders <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > Hey guys out there, > > Anyone know what is happening with the Diana 2 these days?? > > Last i heard was a 13.5 metre version was gonna be flown by Sebastian Kawa > at some GP thing and it didn't make it. > > Ron > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Gliding Australia Forum" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to gfaforum+unsubscribe@glidingau stralia.org > <applewebdata://C67D2F9E-5B20-45B0-B442-B7A67C8241E1>. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected] > <applewebdata://C67D2F9E-5B20-45B0-B442-B7A67C8241E1>. > Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/a/gl > idingaustralia.org/group/gfafo rum/ > <https://groups.google.com/a/glidingaustralia.org/group/gfaforum/>. > > > -- > Sent from my steam driven laptop in a dusty corner of some remote airfield! > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Gliding Australia Forum" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to gfaforum+unsubscribe@ glidingaustralia.org > <mailto:[email protected]>. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>. > Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/a/ glidingaustralia.org/group/ > gfaforum/ <https://groups.google.com/a/glidingaustralia.org/group/gfaforum/>. > > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > <http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring> > > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > [email protected] > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring
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