On 18/09/2017 9:18 PM, Noel Roediger wrote:
Hello Peter.
Bob’s response is spot on.
The warm fronts have always been there.
BOM aviation forecasters – in my opinion – have been a law unto
themselves.
A long time ago I was flying an F27 ADL – PLC – ADL on a CAVOK
forecast and on approaching ADL on the final leg the water of Gulf St.
Vincent was instantly covered by sea fog and I managed to land through
local knowledge – trees poking through the fog.
After shutdown I went to the briefing office and asked the BOM bloke –
a Frenchman called Pierre – to issue a new forecast that required A/C
flying into ADL to carry an alternate.
Why was his response. Mine was ‘look out of the window and you’ll see why.
At that time the ADL tower sat atop the terminal and directly below it
was the briefing office which normally had a clear view to the West
from N/E to S/E and the F27 I’d just landed could not be seen on the
apron below. An absolute aviation saga continued through the day. Too
long to record here.
Fw’d a few years and I was planning a flight MEB – PTH. First step
was to collect the forecast from the Met counter. At that time the
first of the computer generated high altitude wind forecasts were
being issued.
A quick glance indicated a problem. In a normal jet stream situation
I expected a H/W of about 300/150 bit this forecast indicated 120/150.
The Frenchman – who had transferred to MEB, was on duty and refused to
accept that the forecast was impossibly correct.
I flight planned to ADL – refuel to full tanks – then PTH where we
landed safely.
I can’t recall those that fell short. Available in the old “Crash Comic”.
Years later I flew a high altitude turbo-prop A/C over much of the
world on the basis of my own met. knowledge and survived without incident.
I don’t have much time for Wally’s publication.
Noel.
*From:*Aus-soaring [mailto:[email protected]]
*On Behalf Of *Peter Champness
*Sent:* Monday, September 18, 2017 5:42 PM
*To:* Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
*Subject:* [Aus-soaring] Warm Fronts on the BOM Weather Maps
Has any noticed that warm fronts are becoming a feature of our weather
maps?
I can't remember seeing them before, except possibly well south of
Tasmania. David Wilson said something recently about our cold fronts
being somewhat like the Northern Hemisphere warm fronts that
Wallington describes in his book (Meteorology for Glider Pilots).
In a similar manner troughs were not seen on our weather maps before
about the mid 1990's. Now they are every where.
Is it Climate Change or is the BOM learning something?
Hi All,
We now have satellite derived information covering most of the globe
(not sure how the sensors work but they seem pretty accurate). In
earlier years for Australia apart from ground readings it was mostly
balloon flights from a handful of sites once or twice a day. Am sure the
information they have now can accurately determine small temperature and
wind changes which previously would have been mostly guesswork. This
would allow them to accurately position fronts. The synoptic charts
published only contain the bare bones of the information available. Am
always surprised that the published forecasts going out a week are
regularly modified as the day for them approaches but we are being given
general forecasts up to 50 years or more ahead.
Harry Medlicott
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