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Today's Topics:
1. RE: accident rate for gliders in Australia
(Stuart & Kerri FERGUSON)
2. RE: accident rate for gliders in Australia (Robinson, Peter B)
3. Re: accident rate for gliders in Australia
(David and Justine Olsen)
4. Re[2]: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
(Michael Derry)
5. Re: accident rate for gliders in Australia (Anthony Smith)
6. Re: accident rate for gliders in Australia (Colin Collyer)
7. RE: accident rate for gliders in Australia (Allan Armistead)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Message: 1
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:00:29 +1000
From: "Stuart & Kerri FERGUSON" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
To: "'Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.'"
<[email protected]>
Message-ID:
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
This topic is loosing its way; the topic is accident rate for gliders
in Australian not deaths resulting from glider accidents.
Unfortunately like the police and the road toll people are focusing on the
number of fatalities because it is an easy and usually accurate statistic
to
obtain and use. If we are serious about this topic we need to collect
information on all gliding accidents - are all accidents and incidents
reported?
However what does this do for the safety of Gliding? Nothing if all we are
left with is a bunch of useless numbers. Safety is about outcomes,
statistics are just one way of measuring outcomes.
We the general GFA member needs to understand why other members are making
mistakes so we can learn from them. The GFA inner circle may have all this
information at their finger tips, but we don't see any evidence of that at
club level.
Pilot education is what is needed and this starts with GFA management,
they
are charged with creating the safety culture that should permeate down to
all members. Pilot education and therefore knowledge will reduce accident
rates and hopefully that is also reflected in both injury and fatality
rates.
SDF
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Texler,
Michael
Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 11:24 AM
To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some of my numbers were
in
error:
These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers killed) since 1991, any
corrections (preferably off list)?
1991 3
1992 1
1993 1
1994 3
1995 2
1996 0
1997 6
1998 3
1999 2
2000 2
2001 0
2002 0
2003 0
2004 1
2005 3
2006 3
2007 1
At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents.
Again the problem is what to use as the denominator (i.e.fatalities versus
hours flown, number of flights, number of active GFA members, km's flown
etc.) Also note that some of the accidents killed more than one person,
hence the numerator may be rubbery too.
Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful stats.
The other problem is that we are dealing with a low frequency event, so
again sensible use of statistical methods is required.
Regards,
M.T.
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------------------------------
Message: 2
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:17:33 +1000
From: "Robinson, Peter B" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia."
<[email protected]>
Message-ID:
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
Over 16 yrs it averages out at around 2 fatal accidents per yr
The anomaly in the figures is 2001 to 2003 - Was this just a statistical
anomaly or did we do something right without realising it?
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Texler,
Michael
Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 10:54 AM
To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some of my numbers
were in error:
These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers killed) since 1991,
any corrections (preferably off list)?
1991 3
1992 1
1993 1
1994 3
1995 2
1996 0
1997 6
1998 3
1999 2
2000 2
2001 0
2002 0
2003 0
2004 1
2005 3
2006 3
2007 1
At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents.
Again the problem is what to use as the denominator (i.e.fatalities
versus hours flown, number of flights, number of active GFA members,
km's flown etc.) Also note that some of the accidents killed more than
one person, hence the numerator may be rubbery too.
Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful stats.
The other problem is that we are dealing with a low frequency event, so
again sensible use of statistical methods is required.
Regards,
M.T.
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------------------------------
Message: 3
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:22:59 +1000
From: David and Justine Olsen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia."
<[email protected]>
Message-ID: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; delsp=yes; format=flowed
I wouldn't be surprised if you analysed the figures to find the
variations are not statistically significant so 2001-03 not an
anomaly at all.
On 20/04/2007, at 3:17 PM, Robinson, Peter B wrote:
Over 16 yrs it averages out at around 2 fatal accidents per yr
The anomaly in the figures is 2001 to 2003 - Was this just a
statistical
anomaly or did we do something right without realising it?
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of
Texler,
Michael
Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 10:54 AM
To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some of my numbers
were in error:
These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers killed) since 1991,
any corrections (preferably off list)?
1991 3
1992 1
1993 1
1994 3
1995 2
1996 0
1997 6
1998 3
1999 2
2000 2
2001 0
2002 0
2003 0
2004 1
2005 3
2006 3
2007 1
At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents.
Again the problem is what to use as the denominator (i.e.fatalities
versus hours flown, number of flights, number of active GFA members,
km's flown etc.) Also note that some of the accidents killed more than
one person, hence the numerator may be rubbery too.
Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful stats.
The other problem is that we are dealing with a low frequency
event, so
again sensible use of statistical methods is required.
Regards,
M.T.
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------------------------------
Message: 4
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:04:22 +0930 (CST)
From: Michael Derry <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re[2]: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia."
<[email protected]>
Message-ID: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII
Hi All
I once had an intense weekend of looking through about two years of GA
aviation accident reports. Pretty sobering stuff.
The two things I got out of all of this were:
-nearly all crashes were as a result of people breaking various rules
-the inexperienced pilots made lots of little mistakes that led to lots
of minor incidents, rarely with major damage
-the very experienced pilots made few mistakes, but when they did they
caused very severe accidents
How often are we in a situation and there is some special factor that
justifies in our mind breaking some rule ? This is all that the people
who crash do ! The difficulty is, how do we tell someone who is
experienced that they do not have enough knowledge and skill to ever bend
or break any rule ?
Michael Derry
"Stuart & Kerri FERGUSON" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
We the general GFA member needs to understand why other members are
making
mistakes so we can learn from them. The GFA inner circle may have all
this
information at their finger tips, but we don't see any evidence of that
at
club level.
------------------------------
Message: 5
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:17:55 +0950
From: "Anthony Smith" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia."
<[email protected]>
Message-ID: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
I did, based on some really simple stats (someone better at
it can have a go).
The average is ~1.8 per year.
The standard deviation is ~1.6 per year.
What it means is that a couple of years at 0 is not
statistically meaningfull.
I think we need to go for 3 years with 0 deaths to start to
be meaningfull.
It also means we need to kill off 7 of us to be a
meaningfully bad year (ie a trend getting significantly
worse).
I wouldn't be surprised if you analysed the figures to
find the variations are not statistically significant so
2001-03 not an anomaly at all.
On 20/04/2007, at 3:17 PM, Robinson, Peter B wrote:
> Over 16 yrs it averages out at around 2 fatal accidents
per yr >
> The anomaly in the figures is 2001 to 2003 - Was this
> just a statistical
> anomaly or did we do something right without realising
it? >
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Texler,
> Michael
> Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 10:54 AM
> To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in
> Australia. Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for
gliders in Australia >
> Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some
> of my numbers were in error:
>
> These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers
> killed) since 1991, any corrections (preferably off
list)? >
> 1991 3
> 1992 1
> 1993 1
> 1994 3
> 1995 2
> 1996 0
> 1997 6
> 1998 3
> 1999 2
> 2000 2
> 2001 0
> 2002 0
> 2003 0
> 2004 1
> 2005 3
> 2006 3
> 2007 1
>
> At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents.
>
> Again the problem is what to use as the denominator
> (i.e.fatalities versus hours flown, number of flights,
> number of active GFA members, km's flown etc.) Also note
> that some of the accidents killed more than one person,
hence the numerator may be rubbery too. >
> Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful
stats. >
> The other problem is that we are dealing with a low
> frequency event, so
> again sensible use of statistical methods is required.
>
> Regards,
>
> M.T.
>
> _______________________________________________
> Aus-soaring mailing list
> [email protected]
> To check or change subscription details, visit:
>
http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring
> >
> The material contained in this email may be confidential
> , privileged or copyrighted. If you are not the
> intended recipient, use, disclosure or copying of this
> information is prohibited. If you have received this
> document in error, please advise the sender and delete
> the document. Neither OneSteel nor the sender accept
responsibility for any viruses contained in this email or
> any attachments.
>
> _______________________________________________
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> [email protected]
> To check or change subscription details, visit:
>
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------------------------------
Message: 6
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2007 03:58:14 +1000
From: Colin Collyer <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia."
<[email protected]>
Message-ID: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Think carefully before you answer.............Who are the 2
Col C
Robinson, Peter B wrote:
Over 16 yrs it averages out at around 2 fatal accidents per yr
The anomaly in the figures is 2001 to 2003 - Was this just a statistical
anomaly or did we do something right without realising it?
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Texler,
Michael
Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 10:54 AM
To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some of my numbers
were in error:
These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers killed) since 1991,
any corrections (preferably off list)?
1991 3
1992 1
1993 1
1994 3
1995 2
1996 0
1997 6
1998 3
1999 2
2000 2
2001 0
2002 0
2003 0
2004 1
2005 3
2006 3
2007 1
At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents.
Again the problem is what to use as the denominator (i.e.fatalities
versus hours flown, number of flights, number of active GFA members,
km's flown etc.) Also note that some of the accidents killed more than
one person, hence the numerator may be rubbery too.
Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful stats.
The other problem is that we are dealing with a low frequency event, so
again sensible use of statistical methods is required.
Regards,
M.T.
_______________________________________________
Aus-soaring mailing list
[email protected]
To check or change subscription details, visit:
http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring
The material contained in this email may be confidential, privileged or
copyrighted. If you are not the intended recipient, use, disclosure or
copying of this information is prohibited. If you have received this
document in error, please advise the sender and delete the document.
Neither OneSteel nor the sender accept responsibility for any viruses
contained in this email or any attachments.
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------------------------------
Message: 7
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:58:09 +1000
From: "Allan Armistead" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, "Discussion of issues relating to
Soaring in Australia." <[email protected]>
Message-ID: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Gliding fatalities are a bit like the ACT road toll. The overall number is
so small that it just takes a slight hiccup to apparently "blow out"
really
badly in any one year. One mini-bus which hits a tree and wipes out
everyone
on board would double our road toll from 10 to 20, the pollies and police
would wring their hands and introduce a few more speed cameras, the next
year wouldn't involve a similar crash and the pollies would all say what a
good job we did.
Many years ago I was in the Sydney office of the Dept of (whatever
aviation
was called that year) renewing my licence. There was a poster on the wall,
and I wish I could remember the exact words but I can't so I'll
paraphrase,
and the poster showed a big paddock with but a single tree in it, and a
biplane was stuffed in the top of the tree. The caption was along the
lines
of "the air, like the sea, is not inherently dangerous, but it is totally
unforgiving of those who are unskilled, ill equipped, or unprepared".
Just about sums it up, really.
Allan Armistead
ph (02) 6249 6470, mobile 0413 013 911
PO Box 908, Dickson ACT 2602, Australia
"When once you have tasted flight, you will always walk with your eyes
turned skyward, for there you have been and there you always will be."
Leonardo da Vinci, 1452-1519
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Anthony
Smith
Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 15:28
To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
I did, based on some really simple stats (someone better at
it can have a go).
The average is ~1.8 per year.
The standard deviation is ~1.6 per year.
What it means is that a couple of years at 0 is not
statistically meaningfull.
I think we need to go for 3 years with 0 deaths to start to
be meaningfull.
It also means we need to kill off 7 of us to be a
meaningfully bad year (ie a trend getting significantly
worse).
I wouldn't be surprised if you analysed the figures to
find the variations are not statistically significant so
2001-03 not an anomaly at all.
On 20/04/2007, at 3:17 PM, Robinson, Peter B wrote:
> Over 16 yrs it averages out at around 2 fatal accidents
per yr >
> The anomaly in the figures is 2001 to 2003 - Was this
> just a statistical
> anomaly or did we do something right without realising
it? >
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Texler,
> Michael
> Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 10:54 AM
> To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in
> Australia. Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for
gliders in Australia >
> Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some
> of my numbers were in error:
>
> These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers
> killed) since 1991, any corrections (preferably off
list)? >
> 1991 3
> 1992 1
> 1993 1
> 1994 3
> 1995 2
> 1996 0
> 1997 6
> 1998 3
> 1999 2
> 2000 2
> 2001 0
> 2002 0
> 2003 0
> 2004 1
> 2005 3
> 2006 3
> 2007 1
>
> At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents.
>
> Again the problem is what to use as the denominator
> (i.e.fatalities versus hours flown, number of flights,
> number of active GFA members, km's flown etc.) Also note
> that some of the accidents killed more than one person,
hence the numerator may be rubbery too. >
> Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful
stats. >
> The other problem is that we are dealing with a low
> frequency event, so
> again sensible use of statistical methods is required.
>
> Regards,
>
> M.T.
>
> _______________________________________________
> Aus-soaring mailing list
> [email protected]
> To check or change subscription details, visit:
>
http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring
> >
> The material contained in this email may be confidential
> , privileged or copyrighted. If you are not the
> intended recipient, use, disclosure or copying of this
> information is prohibited. If you have received this
> document in error, please advise the sender and delete
> the document. Neither OneSteel nor the sender accept
responsibility for any viruses contained in this email or
> any attachments.
>
> _______________________________________________
> Aus-soaring mailing list
> [email protected]
> To check or change subscription details, visit:
>
http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring
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------------------------------
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End of Aus-soaring Digest, Vol 43, Issue 60
*******************************************
