Which may be why it's "a weather forecast", not "A historically accurate view of the weather".
Just a suggestion. -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Jonathan Chetwynd Sent: 25 September 2006 13:05 To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [backstage] hedging the weather Gordo, I was specifically commenting that averaging such a small data set with such a broad range had very little meaning. please note that in fact the weather today is solid heavy rain so far. whereas in fact the 24 hour forecast doesn't even represent the past very well: 10:00 sunny, though in fact overcast 13:00 sunny intervals, though in fact totally overcast with heavy downfalls. regards Jonathan Chetwynd On 25 Sep 2006, at 09:19, Gordon Joly wrote: At 07:33 +0100 25/9/06, Jonathan Chetwynd wrote: > hedging the weather > > barcamplondon featured weather averaging for four major suppliers. > > I queried the sense of this given the BBC's approach... > > for instance today in London the (day) forecast is "light rain shower" > that's half the rays of sun, plus a dark cloud with one rain drop. > already pretty vague you might surmise... > > However when you switch to the 24 hour forecast the 3 hourly > forecast throughout the day is "Sunny" throughout the day, with > clear morning and evening. > > given the vast expense of weather forecasting, this cannot be said > to qualify as science, it doesn't even pretend to scientism or > scientistic tendencies, more like pure guesswork of a pretty vague > and less than helpful sort? > > cheers > > Jonathan Chetwynd > The formulation of some sort of "mean weather" (average weather) from different datasets is one approach. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilistic_forecasting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaghetti_Plots I use Metcheck now: http://www.metcheck.com/ They tell you which model and which run of that model is being presented. Model : GFS Run : 00Z Updated : 24 September 2006 : 08:01:52 AM YMMV, Gordo -- "Think Feynman"///////// http://pobox.com/~gordo/ [EMAIL PROTECTED]/// - Sent via the backstage.bbc.co.uk discussion group. To unsubscribe, please visit http://backstage.bbc.co.uk/archives/2005/01/ mailing_list.html. Unofficial list archive: http://www.mail- archive.com/[email protected]/ - Sent via the backstage.bbc.co.uk discussion group. To unsubscribe, please visit http://backstage.bbc.co.uk/archives/2005/01/mailing_list.html. Unofficial list archive: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ -- No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.1.405 / Virus Database: 268.12.8/455 - Release Date: 22/09/2006 - Sent via the backstage.bbc.co.uk discussion group. To unsubscribe, please visit http://backstage.bbc.co.uk/archives/2005/01/mailing_list.html. Unofficial list archive: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/
