Sorry for the delay in replying but I've had a toothache!

Right...

You can divide the kind of material that is currently shown on television
into five broad types:

- "True live", which a content that is actually live, or is non-archive
material introduced by live presentation.  This would be the news and
weather on most channels, live events such as sport and music and so on.
The value of the content is related to common experience or to the "breaking
news" .

- "As live" is content that is produced, recorded and edited as if it were
broadcast live, but has actually been produced beforehand.   Such programmes
are usually produced in quantity and to a "format" which

- "Commissioned" programmes covers the large part of factual and drama
programmes.

- "Import" programmes are bought from TV networks abroad.

- "Archive" programmes are programmes of the above types that have been show
before.


Putting on my futurologist hat:


TRUE LIVE

"True live" will remain in the on broadcast TV.  For the BBC this means
streaming of BBC News 24 and BBC World.

On the "live" sports side, this will remain the only existing pull for
subscription TV, as is already the only service that Sky operates that has
not lost almost all the viewers.  Online "live sport" will either be
provided by IPTV with spot-adverts, live streams (BBC Sport).

Some formats such as talent shows will probably also be constructed for the
"live buzz".


AS LIVE

Much of this kind of entertainment material is produced for broadcast
television and will probably continue to be pumped out over satellite, cable
and terrestrial services.   But as the "shared live experience" is fake,
then these programmes will be eventually be pumped into on-demand services,
vodcasts and so on.    Current examples are "Have I Got News For You" and
"Watchdog".  Most of these formats have daily or weekly episodes which have
little resale value.


COMMISSIONED

This area covers the majority of content.  In the past, these programmes
are scheduled, but without the linear form of traditional TV, such material
will be consumed "on demand".  If the BBC has any sense, all such material
should be made available to any organization that will encode and
distribute it as long as they make no edits and take no credit.

The BBC, as a "premium originated content" broadcaster produces
material that has a range of resale values.  IMHO the BBC should stick all
educational content online with immediate effect, unless there is a good
reason for not doing so.  Obviously most people would
also like entertainment and comedy formats to be included, but these have
much higher potential resale value and will probably have to wait until
later.

It is my opinion  that the BBC should collect usage information from
distributed video and have a fixed annual fund to compensate those
who write, contribute and perform for the programmes.


IMPORTS

Once the world moves broadcasting in to cyberspace, Imports on TV channels
will disappear.  What is the point in waiting six months to watch a new
Simpson's on Sky One (or years onto C4) if you can download it from the
US minutes after broadcast.

This is not much of a problem for the BBC as it has very little imported
programming these days, but it may see the eventual death of BBC
non-domestic channels (other than BBC World).

The foreign sales of formats will no doubt continue, and there will be a
market for subtitled and dubbed non-English content.


ARCHIVE

The value of programmes from the archive will fall because the costs of
storage and distribution fall towards zero.  Eventually it would be
desirable to have every single programme the BBC has ever broadcast to be in
an archive.  To me the value of transmitting our culture abroad outweighs the
cost of lost archive sales.

On 14/06/07, Mr I Forrester <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote:

I've been thinking about products and services like this for a while,
and want to ponder this question to the backstage community...

We've been talking about how DRM doesn't work, etc in other posts. Well
lets just say for this thread that DRM doesn't work and it just turns
consumers into against the content holder.

...What happens next?

Here's some thoughts from me,

Content producers adopt watermarking technologies?
P2P streaming and Multicasting becomes the next big advance for content
producers
People start paying for real time or 0day access?
Google and Yahoo start indexing torrent sites and offering services like
sharetv.org
Joost and Democracy adoption increases
The portable video player and digital set top (appletv, xbmc, etc)
markets blows up
Torrent site uses slowly drops, as content producers use other online
services
Windows Home server (now you see how my last post relates) and similar
products sales increase 10 fold over the next 3 year
-
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--
Please email me back if you need any more help.

Brian Butterworth
www.ukfree.tv

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