The journalist sat next to me when we went to see Vince Cerf at the MGEITF asked about this and he dismissed it as utter crud...
On 21/11/2007, Dave Crossland <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Thought this might be of interest :-) > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > From: Conrad Taylor <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Date: 21 Nov 2007 08:34 > Subject: [KIDMM] Beware the Exaflood! > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > Hello all, > > This isn't really a KIDMM issue, but reasonably interesting... > > The Internet Innovation Alliance in the USA (appears to be > a policy studies group, headed by President Clinton's former > Asst. Secretary of Commerce for Communications) is trying to > raise awareness about what they predict will be a crisis in > available bandwidth, which could lead to slow-downs in about > three years time. > > They have commissioned a report from Nemertes Research, newly > published, called "The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why limits > in Internet capacity will stifle innovation on the Web." > > Start here: > > http://www.internetinnovation.org/ > > But if you want to read the whole 62-page report, you will need > to create an account at http://www.nemertes.com/ (they do have > a lot of interesting stuff there). > > The focus is chiefly on North America, where the authors conclude > that core fibre and switching/routing resources will scale well > "to support virtually any conceivable user demand", but that making > sure that Internet access infrastructure keeps up will require an > investment by service providers of between US $42-55 billion -- > about 60-70% more than they currently plan to invest. > > Among the trends driving this, the authors refer to growing use > of Web 2.0 applications, the replacement of physical travel by > virtualisation of face-to-face contact within friends and families, > users switching from broadcast to IP-accessed versions of radio > and television (especially the latter), and video-sharing. > > "Overall, transmitting over a saturated broadband link > will feel a lot like the bad old days of dial-up: > Long pauses between request and response, with some > applications just too painful to bother with. > > "But the user experience is really just the tip of the > iceberg. The real impact is the chilling effect that > insufficient capacity exerts on companies that rely upon > reliable Internet performance (YouTube, PhotoBucket, > Amazon.com, etc) could be faced with a crisis if their > customer base simply can't access their 'product' in a > tolerable manner. New companies that emerge-say to enable > high-definition video downloads-may not survive. And > finally that plan to rely upon the public Internet (via > SSL and IP VPNs) as an increasing component of corporate > connectivity may want to reconsider this strategy in > light of the potential downstream performance impact." > > Conrad > -- > > > -- > Regards, > Dave > - > Sent via the backstage.bbc.co.uk discussion group. To unsubscribe, please > visit http://backstage.bbc.co.uk/archives/2005/01/mailing_list.html. > Unofficial > list archive: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ > -- Please email me back if you need any more help. Brian Butterworth http://www.ukfree.tv
