This Week
Arctic meltdown 02 Mar 02
There will be anarchy as northern seas open up to shipping
THE Arctic ice cap is melting at a rate that could allow routine
commercial shipping through the far north in a decade and open up new
fisheries. But a report for the US Navy seen by New Scientist reveals that
naval vessels will be unable to police these areas.
It was in 1906, after centuries of attempts, that Roald Amundsen
finally navigated the North-West Passage through the sea ice north of
Canada. Even today, only specially strengthened ships can make the trip.
But in 10 years' time, if melting patterns change as predicted, the
North-West Passage could be open to ordinary shipping for a month each
summer. And the Northern Sea Route across the top of Russia could allow
shipping for at least two months a year in as little as five years.
The new routes will slash the distances for voyages between Europe and
East Asia by a third, and open up new fisheries. The resulting boom in
shipping could lead to conflicts, as nations try to enforce fisheries rules,
prevent smuggling and piracy, and protect the Arctic environment from oil
spills. To complicate matters, Russia and Canada consider their northern sea
routes as national territory, while the US regards them as international
waters.
These predictions come in a recently declassified report of a meeting
of American, British and Canadian Arctic and naval experts in April last
year, organised by Dennis Conlon of the US Office of Naval Research in
Arlington, Virginia. Entitled Naval Operations in an Ice-Free Arctic, the
report reveals that standard naval operations could be close to impossible
in Arctic waters. The biggest problem is that communications satellites do
not cover the area well, says Conlon.
Modern ships and weapons rely on various kinds of sensors but none
work well in Arctic conditions, he adds. Ice complicates the way sound
travels through water, making sonar and acoustic monitoring difficult. Icy
decks and high winds make it extremely difficult for aircraft to operate.
Unbroken summer daylight makes covert operations harder.
The US and the Soviet Union invested heavily in Arctic research
throughout the cold war, because it was a place where submarines could hide
under the ice, ready to surface and launch nuclear missiles. But that
research has stopped and no new work is planned.
Peter Wadhams of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge
agrees that the Arctic could soon open up. "Within a decade we can expect
regular summer trade there," he predicts.
New shipping routes open as the Arctic ice cap melts.
Debora MacKenzie
From New Scientist magazine, vol 173 issue 2332, 02/03/2002, page 5
� Copyright New Scientist, RBI Limited 2001
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