The trouble with a study like this is it fails to take into account the acceleration of change. At the present rate of acceleration the arctic could be completely unfrozen by 2020. Moreover, the ice ON Antarctica, not just the ice already in the water, could have melted in significant amounts, and who knows if that would accelerate the process even more? I wouldn't invest in sea front property if I were you.
Actually I welcome the changes as it will be a massive wake-up for all to see the bankruptcy of our present economic and political order. Steve Storch seems to think that our present governments are on their way out. I say not without causing much more devastation. They simply have too much momentum to stop even though the handwriting is clearly on the wall for anyone with his eyes open. But once they shatter and deluge the world as we have know it, their time truly will have come. As far as I'm concerned the faster the better. Look at the people who support Bush and you will know why we need this to happen. They voted to get just the right medicine for our situation, and now it will come to pass. Yea, Bush! Isn't he a better friend than you realized?
Best,
Hugh
NewScientist.com
Arctic to lose all summer ice by 2100
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10:02 04 December 02
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NewScientist.com news service
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The Arctic Ocean will be completely devoid of summer ice before the 21st century has ended, a NASA study predicts.
The new work shows that the permanent ice cap over the ocean - the cover that survives through the warm summer months - is disappearing far faster than previously thought.
Between 1978 and 2000, 1.2 million square kilometres of apparently permanent ice melted away. That is an area five times the size of Britain and represents a loss of nine per cent per decade.
"At this rate, permanent ice will have disappeared before the end of this century," says NASA ice physicist Josefino Comiso.
Trebling up
Past satellite studies of ice cover have looked at the average ice cover for individual months during the year. They found an average retreat of around three per cent a decade.
But the minimum ice cover, which represents the ice that lasts through the summer, occurs at different times in different regions of the ocean. So to get a clearer estimate of the amount of ice that survives, Comiso reanalysed the data.
He measured the minimum extent of sea ice in each region - and that revealed the much higher rate of loss. The trend is continuing. This past summer, "we had the least amount of permanent ice cover ever observed," says Comiso.
"If the permanent ice cover disappears, the entire Arctic ocean climate and ecology would become very different," says Comiso, at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. It will give an extra kick to global warming and polar bears, which live by hunting on the sea ice, will have nowhere to go.
Point of no return
The ice loss coincides with a summer warming trend of 1.2 �C a decade in the air above the ice. The biggest disappearance of ice so far has been over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, north of Canada and Alaska. This is also where air temperatures have warmed most.
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Comiso agrees that some of the ice retreat could be due to short-term fluctuations in climate or ocean currents. But he warns that the rate at which ice disappears is likely to accelerate in future.
As the ice disappears, it will speed up the warming of Arctic waters. This is because ice reflects most of the Sun's rays back into space, while the dark-blue oceans absorb much more heat.
Warmer water will delay autumn freezing, leading to a thinner ice cover in the winter and spring. In turn this will make the sea ice more vulnerable to melting the next summer. This positive feedback is propelling the Arctic ice to a point of no return beyond which, says Comiso, the melting will be become "irreversible".
Journal reference: Geophysical Research Letters (DOI: 10.1029/2002GL015650)
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Fred Pearce
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An old Cherokee is teaching his grandson about life. "A fight is going on
inside me," he said to the boy. "It is a terrible fight and it is between
two wolves. One is evil - he is anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed,
arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride,
superiority, and ego." He continued, "The other is good - he is joy, peace,
love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, empathy, generosity,
truth, compassion, and faith. The same fight is going on inside you - and
inside every other person, too." The grandson thought about it for a minute
and then asked his grandfather, "Which wolf will win?" The old Cherokee
simply replies, "The one you feed."
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