You make about as much sense as a Japanese VCR instruction manual!
2012/9/10 Vincent Diepeveen <[email protected]>: > You are rather naive to believe that public released numbers, other > than total CPU's sold, will give you ANY data on > what holds the biggest secrets of society. Secrecy is a higher > priority here than for any > military data. > > On military data it's tough to make money, as you risk getting a car > accident. > > With trading secrets you can make BIG CASH and no one shoots you and > no one ever got convicted for stealing something there AFAIK. > > What we DO know is a few hard facts that are not nice to hear. > > That is that each year inflation averaged over the past 70 years is > historically 5%+, and with those populists that call > themselves politicians, all of them overspending, that won't get > lower coming few years. The average will rise > of course. > > If you buy shares apple now. You get 1.7% dividend. > > That's LOWER than inflation. > > Historic dividend is quite some above 4%. Nearly 5%. > Historic Indexation is another 7%+. > > So if you would have invested in DJI, say around 1935 and then in > 2005 looked what you had made, > you would've made an average of nearly 12% a year, dividend and > indexation added up. > > If you do math with other indice, for example AEX of Netherlands, it > started in 1983, and then calculate to 2005, > you get actually nearly the same percentage of nearly 12%. > > Of course had you promised before 9/11 a percentage of 12% as a > quant, you wouldn't even get hired, as they wanted 20% > as an average a year, in order to pay for their own costs. > > Right now no one who is making those percentages based upon > indexation and dividend is low. > > Several high frequency traders on other hand made an average profit > of over 10% profit each year over the past 12 years. > High frequency trading was just a few billion dollar worth in total > earnings start this century. > > Right now even the guys who are 'long term' investing in the > exchanges, they just trade futures and relative few > options as a protection (if they're cheap). > > So entire market has moved nearly completely to derivatives right now. > > That's an amount of cash that if you write it out, you easily make a > mistake in the number of zero's it has that number, > that much it is. > > You really would be naive to believe they will give you or me ANY > information. > > First of all no one has access to the bunkers of the traders where > they are doing all the analysis. > Not even the army, especially army guys, most intelligence dudes are > known for stealing data and using for their own > gain, as long as they don't get shot, especially military doesn't get > in there. > > Speaking of your government. They don't even have the EQUIPMENT to > verify what the traders are doing. the governments > equipment works in the milliseconds still. Traders however measure in > microseconds of course. > > Let's start with definitions. > > Something that calculates in a HPC center. You sure its name is > 'server'? > > For companies that really will give you 0 information, it's rather > difficult to count what they actually have. > > It's for example unclear how many of them are number crunching on > gpu's. We can safely assume majority is not yet doing that. > But i know of at least 1 hedgefund which has surprising amounts of > guys hired who know something about gpgpu. > > Then 1+1 = 2 of course. > > Start looking at intel Xeon sales and IBM sales and realize how few > HPC centers that do for governments nowadays lately got > an 'upgrade'. Then come back with those sales numbers. > > Furthermore for such long term analysis, it doesn't matter if a > machine sometimes goes broken. The google principle simply > applies. Cheap number crunching hardware is what matters. It will > need quite some bandwidth of course for the trading data > and they need big storage. > > So looking at number of harddrives sold, and i'd look to SATA drives > if i were you as those are cheaper, is a more interesting thing. > > The only fast low latency machines with fast cpu's you need is in the > datacenter of the platforms and the exchanges. > > For the simulations it's all about having massive cpu power and there > is a LOT of solutions to do that. > The only thing we DO know is that the High Frequency Traders are > still making good cash and nearly no one else is. > > So it's obvious everyone is moving there. If you do not build > yourself a huge datacenter as a trader, then it's time to retire and > enjoy your pension. > > The most important observation is that HFT can avoid worst case > scenario's for you. Limit losses during big crashes. > > What is that worth to you? > > Will there be a new crash any soon knowing that markets don't like > Europe overspend a tad under 3%, whereas > USA is overspending 50%+ right now? (spending divided by income). > > It seems that in 2008 democratic forces took care that the already > volatile situation, which was there since 2007, > that it crashed instantly. > > If republican forces want to do the same thing now, they have roughly > 3 weeks left for a perfect timing to get their > candidate elected. > > And for years to come after that, USA will be overspending too much. > Will it get like Japan which has 230%+ debt and therefore an exchange > that total imploded? > > No one knows. > > But we do know 1 hard fact and that's that only the high frequency > traders made GOOD PROFITS in a SYSTEMATIC manner past 12 years > and no one else did do that. > > By the way: the bigger the bank the slower they are to adapt to the > new reality... > > On Sep 10, 2012, at 1:01 PM, [email protected] wrote: > >>> A single tad larger trader typically has a 3000 machines and they're >>> all equipped with a highspeed network. >> >> Europe installed over 2 million new servers in 2011 according to >> Gartner. >> >> The Royal Bank of Scotland, one of the the most massive banks on the >> planet, operates something less than 10k servers in their data synapse >> grid but this is their modeling department and its not their high >> frequency trading machines. >> >> Just because a bank has a lot of servers does not mean they all >> need to be >> located near the exchange. The Montecarlo stuff will help the HFT guys >> devise triggers and rules which will be set up on their trading >> systems. >> The actual HFT system will probably only actually be a couple of >> machines >> in some basement somewhere in london. >> >> >>> >>> As slowly trader by trader is simply getting kicked bigtime by the >>> traders that do have those 3000+ machines in their own datacenter, >>> one by one they are all setting up their own calculation centers with >>> more machines to do those simulations figuring out whether their >>> package, based upon previous data, can make them big cash tomorrow on >>> the exchanges. >>> >>> In most nations the high frequency traders will have the majority of >>> the HPC hardware. More than government. >>> >>> On Sep 10, 2012, at 12:08 PM, [email protected] >>> wrote: >>> >>>> http://www.google.com/about/datacenters/inside/index.html >>>> >>>> High Frequency Trading is actually a tiny amount of the world wide >>>> computer power. Far far less than HPC. This kit tends to be located >>>> very close to the exchange anyway. and is generally uninteresting in >>>> terms of green IT. >>>> >>>> I recently met with one of the technical directors of Deutsch Börse >>>> which is the major central european stock exchange.. They are just >>>> moving their central trading platform from some VMS clustery thing >>>> (before my time) to a Intel / Infiniband / RedHat cluster of no more >>>> than 200 nodes of which about half were gateway nodes (with >>>> interface >>>> cards for external connections to the finance houses). Its all small >>>> time stuff. >>>> >>>> So please cease debasing these discussions with 'Iceland will never >>>> have datacenters because you cant use it for HFT". Thou speaks from >>>> thyne arse :) HFT is far smaller than HPC which is tiny anyway. >>>> >>>> Latency generally doesn't matter. I can ping www.whitehouse.gov in >>>> 30ms. www.number10.gov.uk in 23ms and, kinda ironically, 43ms for >>>> www.berlin.de (I live in Berlin). >>>> >>>> Also, really, this oil bath stuff will never happen in the main >>>> stream. Some procurement process with buy it because of the numbers >>>> and then regret it for all time in a semi public way. Then we can >>>> all >>>> forget it and get on with what we have always been doing; stealing >>>> partitions from the office to direct the hot air out of the door >>>> that >>>> we have propped open with a chair. >>>> >>>> I think most of us have had to replace all of the memory in our >>>> shiny >>>> new cluster at some time or some other annoying task that involves >>>> taking out every node and doing something annoying with a >>>> screwdriver >>>> and that sharp edge that kept slicing under your thumb nail. I >>>> actually nearly chopped of the tip of my finger on a 9000RPM fan. It >>>> was not a neat wound. >>>> >>>> Image doing that in rubber gloves with everything covered in goop. >>>> Brilliant. >>>> >>>> ta for now. >>>> >>>> Andrew >>>> >>>>> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- >>>>> Hash: SHA1 >>>>> >>>>> On 05/09/12 23:14, Robert G. Brown wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> I don't think they even bother with a proper enclosure per >>>>>> motherboard. Over the counter, commodity, cheap, almost hardware >>>>>> agnostic. >>>>> >>>>> A Google talk I went to a few years back confirmed that's the case >>>>> (or >>>>> rather, lack of a case IYSWIW) for their nodes in their search >>>>> clusters, but they did make the point they use more standard >>>>> hardware >>>>> for the services they make money from (like advertising) to get >>>>> better >>>>> reliability. >>>>> >>>>> Whether that's still the case, I don't know. >>>>> >>>>> cheers! >>>>> Chris >>>>> - -- >>>>> Christopher Samuel Senior Systems Administrator >>>>> VLSCI - Victorian Life Sciences Computation Initiative >>>>> Email: [email protected] Phone: +61 (0)3 903 55545 >>>>> http://www.vlsci.org.au/ http://twitter.com/vlsci >>>>> >>>>> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- >>>>> Version: GnuPG v1.4.11 (GNU/Linux) >>>>> Comment: Using GnuPG with Mozilla - http://www.enigmail.net/ >>>>> >>>>> iEYEARECAAYFAlBNXbgACgkQO2KABBYQAh9qVgCeJnjX+yi0Lp5aq2W0dPD8Aovu >>>>> a6kAnRiXr7y/AXbybjs5U549CpM/zx9Z >>>>> =1K1G >>>>> -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- >>>>> _______________________________________________ >>>>> Beowulf mailing list, [email protected] sponsored by Penguin >>>>> Computing >>>>> To change your subscription (digest mode or unsubscribe) visit >>>>> http://www.beowulf.org/mailman/listinfo/beowulf >>>>> >>>> >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> Beowulf mailing list, [email protected] sponsored by Penguin >>>> Computing >>>> To change your subscription (digest mode or unsubscribe) visit >>>> http://www.beowulf.org/mailman/listinfo/beowulf >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> Beowulf mailing list, [email protected] sponsored by Penguin >>> Computing >>> To change your subscription (digest mode or unsubscribe) visit >>> http://www.beowulf.org/mailman/listinfo/beowulf >>> >> >> > > _______________________________________________ > Beowulf mailing list, [email protected] sponsored by Penguin Computing > To change your subscription (digest mode or unsubscribe) visit > http://www.beowulf.org/mailman/listinfo/beowulf _______________________________________________ Beowulf mailing list, [email protected] sponsored by Penguin Computing To change your subscription (digest mode or unsubscribe) visit http://www.beowulf.org/mailman/listinfo/beowulf
