RE: [bestcharts] Re: BC versions 4.32/4.321

Wed, 19 Jan 2005 13:18:19 -0800

Your questions are rhetorical, reflecting the daily pursuit of the Holy Grail of investing.
 
When I have the "definitve answer" I will guard it at my private tropical island along with the fortune I made using it.
 
Rest assured, it will not appear here.  :  )
 

Rik Rasmussen
Best Charts Yahoo Group Moderator
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/bestcharts/

 
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Howard Larson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Wednesday, January 19, 2005 3:17 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: [bestcharts] Re: BC versions 4.32/4.321

My assumption is that the parameters, once set using the procedure described, should remain valid for a period of time going forward.  I don't know how long that period is, but will be determined by change in market mood.  At any rate, I intend to do a study that compares the current signal provided by parameters stored in the past with that given by redoing the complete parameter optimization.  The problem I have with daily re-optimization is:  How valid is the current signal if it will disappear in the days to come?  Another way to look at it is, if you accepted a signal in the past, how valid is the current signal if the old signal no longer is shown?
 
Answer:  <please provide definitve answer in this space>
 
Regards,
hl

Rik Rasmussen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Sounds like you are using the B-C tools to their maximum capability.
 
As long as you remain vigilant to market conditions changing, and update your strategy accordingly, you should be ok.
 
My problem was with "one holds it constant over time" and "associate the optimum number of quotes with the stock symbol ".
 
You really can 't do the first, which is why you can't do the second.
 
These considerations are NOT unique to B-C, but are true of all technical analysis.
 

Rik Rasmussen
Best Charts Yahoo Group Moderator
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/bestcharts/

-----Original Message-----
From: Howard Larson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Wednesday, January 19, 2005 11:15 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: [bestcharts] Re: BC versions 4.32/4.321

Okay, we do have a diversity of opinion on this subject.  To re-cap my technique, I select a stock and run multi-AIO to determine the best (optimum) number of quotes to use with BT.  The optimum number for me is when the greatest number of indicators are indicating maximum profit.  I then run AIO using the optimum number of quotes in BT and save the parameters.  I then hold all of this constant going forward.  I believe this methodology to be valid so long as the market stochastics are asymptotically stationary.  This is probably true except during episodes of technical trading.
 
So, if the above is not the intended use for those B-C features, how should they be used?

Rik Rasmussen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
There is no "optimum number of quotes for a stock."
 
Oh, there might be for a certain period of time in the past, but there is no assurance that number will be optimum in the future.
 
What was optimum in an up market could kill you if the market goes into consolidation, or turns down.
 
The developer can not associate such a number with a stock because there is no such number.
 
The market is very dynamic. Analysis must also be dynamic.
 
Use numbers frozen in time and watch your funds creep away.
 

Rik Rasmussen
Best Charts Yahoo Group Moderator
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/bestcharts/

-----Original Message-----
From: Howard Larson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, January 18, 2005 5:01 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [bestcharts] Re: BC versions 4.32/4.321

Gents,
 
I agree with the statement on using multi-AIO too frequently.  It has been my understanding that one should use multi-AIO when first starting to follow a stock in order to pick the optimum number of quotes for that stock.  Once the optimum number of quotes is established, one holds it constant over time.  That is why I have suggested the developer associate the optimum number of quotes with the stock symbol by including it in opd.txt or opw.txt as appropriate.
 
Regards,
hl



--
Howard Larson

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