GENERAL FINCH FORECAST 2006 - 2007
This is one of those rare years when most conifers (softwoods) and
broad-leaved deciduous trees (hardwoods) have synchronized bumper
seed crops across much of Eastern Canada and the bordering United
States. It will be an excellent winter to see winter finches in
northern Ontario and central Ontario (e.g., Algonquin Park). Very few
boreal finches will move south of Ontario this fall and winter. Most
finches likely will be scarce even in southern Ontario south of the
Canadian Shield this winter, despite bumper seed crops on native and
ornamental species. There also are bumper cone crops in Quebec, the
Maritime Provinces, New York and northern New England States, so
finches will be there too, but in what numbers is the question,
because excellent crops are so widespread this year. There are good
cone crops west of Lake Superior in northwestern Ontario, but cone
quality diminishs towards Manitoba because of severe drought
conditions this year. Cone crops are generally poor at the
continental extremes in Newfoundland and Alaska. Both White-winged
and Red Crossbills have been arriving in Ontario since late June in
areas with bumper cone crops. In addition to individual finch
forecasts, I also comment on other irruptive species, such as the
Red-breasted Nuthatch, whose movements are linked to winter finches.
I added a new section this year called Finch Notes. It discusses
bumper seed crops, how crossbills find cone crops, when crossbills
move to bumper crops, when crossbills nest, road-killed finches, and
where to see finches this winter in Ontario.
INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS
Pine Grosbeak: Most Pine Grosbeaks will stay in northern Ontario
because the berry crop on mountain-ash (rowan berries) is excellent
to bumper this year. As well, the large seed and berry crops on other
trees and shrubs provide ample buffer food supplies to keep the
grosbeaks in the north. A few Pine Grosbeaks may drift as far south
as Algonquin Park where they are seen most winters.
Purple Finch: The excellent tree seed crops on most coniferous and
deciduous trees suggest that most (not all) Purple Finches will spend
this winter in northern and central Ontario. Some may drift south in
late winter and show up at feeders, which is typical of this species
in big seed years as seed supplies diminish in late winter.
Red Crossbill: Taxonomy and nomenclature are hopelessly confused. The
Red Crossbill complex comprises at least eight types or forms
(possibly full species) with different vocalizations and bill sizes
related to cone preferences. Two or three forms are regular in
Ontario. One prefers hemlock cones and the others are adapted mostly
to pines, mainly white pine in Ontario. Red Crossbills have been seen
and heard singing in hemlocks in August suggesting that the
small-billed hemlock subspecies 'sitkensis' has moved into central
Ontario where hemlock cone crops are excellent as in Algonquin Park
and the Haliburton Highlands. The hemlock form has the smallest bill
of all Red Crossbills, even smaller than the White-winged Crossbill's
stubby bill. Road-killed 'sitkensis' can be identified by measuring
their bills (culmen 13.5-15 mm). White pine cone crops, unlike other
conifers, are poor in most of central Ontario such as Algonquin Park.
However, some areas of northeastern Ontario have good white pine
crops such as Marten River and Timmins. Watch for pine types of Red
Crossbills wherever white and red pines have good cone crops. Since
spruce cones are so abundant this year, I expect that Red Crossbills
will be found feeding in spruce to some extent this winter.
White-winged Crossbill: Like a pendulum, White-winged Crossbills move
back and forth across the northern coniferous forests from
Newfoundland to Alaska searching for cone crops. White-winged
Crossbills will be widespread and perhaps common in many areas of
northern and central Ontario because of the bumper seed crops on
spruces, tamarack, balsam fir and hemlock. I expect that the highest
concentrations of White-wings will be in northeastern Ontario between
Lake Superior and Quebec where the super bumper crop of white spruce
cones is "a 1-in-20-year cyclical phenomenon" making this is a rather
rare event in seed production for white spruce (Scott McPherson,
pers. comm.). White-winged Crossbills began increasing in northern
Ontario in late June and increased during July associated with big
cone crops. They are singing and feasting on an abundance of cone
seeds and probably nesting. They likely will begin nesting again in
early 2007. White-winged Crossbills in Algonquin Park have been
widespread in small numbers since July and are singing. Nesting is
suggested by two sightings of recently fledged young in August.
White-winged Crossbills possibly came from western Canada and Alaska
wandering eastward searching for cone crops. One reason why there are
no subspecies on this continent versus the eight or more types of Red
Crossbills is that White-winged Crossbill populations oscillate east
and west across North America, and thus are constantly mixing. This
allows outcrossing and gene flow among populations, suppressing the
formation of geographical variation.
Common Redpoll: This is not a flight year for redpolls in southern
Ontario. Most Common and Hoary Redpolls will be in northern Ontario
this winter because seed crops on white birch and alder are excellent
to bumper there. As well, yellow birch has an excellent crop from
southeastern Lake Superior into Quebec. This large crop will stall
any redpolls wandering south of the boreal zone. A few redpolls may
get as far south as Algonquin Park, but likely no farther.
Pine Siskin: Most Pine Siskins will winter in northern and probably
central Ontario this winter because cones crops are bumper on
spruces, balsam fir, tamarack (larch), cedar and hemlock. Flocks of
siskins can be identified at a distance by their distinctive flight
formation. They swirl in tight flocks whereas redpolls fly in loose
undulating flocks. Siskins should breed early next spring in northern
Ontario. Only one subspecies occurs across Canada, indicating that
highly nomadic siskin populations mix from coast to coast, inhibiting
the formation of geographical variation.
Evening Grosbeak: Evening Grosbeaks will stay in the boreal forest
this winter because tree seed crops are excellent on conifers and
hardwoods such as black ash. Expect a few in Algonquin Park,
particularly around the feeders at the Visitor Centre. The eastern
population of Evening Grosbeaks started declining in 1980 as large
outbreaks of spruce budworm subsided. The population is probably
stable now, but much reduced from the 1970s when Evening Grosbeaks
were common at bird feeders.
OTHER IRRUPTIVE SPECIES
Blue Jay: A small to moderate flight is expected. The good to
excellent crop of beechnuts on American beech in most areas of
central and southern Ontario should keep most Blue Jays from
migrating south this September and October along the shorelines of
Lakes Ontario and Erie. Blue Jays are now actively storing beechnuts.
Also, there are excellent crops of hazelnuts which will add to the
nonmigratory tendency of Blue Jays this fall. The red oak acorn crop
is poor in most areas of central Ontario, but the lack of acorns
should be compensated for by the large mast crops on other deciduous
trees and shrubs.
Red-breasted Nuthatch: Most Red-breasted Nuthatches will not migrate
south this fall. The bumper cone crops across Ontario will hold most
Red-breasted Nuthatches close to their northern breeding grounds this
winter. When Red-breasted Nuthatches winter in the boreal forest they
eat conifer seeds so are closely linked to finches.
Bohemian Waxwing: The excellent to bumper crop of mountain-ash (rowan
berries) will keep most Bohemians Waxwings close to the boreal forest
this winter.
Boreal Forest Owls: The widespread abundance of seeds, berries, nuts
and fruits (mast) is providing a huge food supply for small mammals
such as voles so their numbers should be increasing. Most boreal
forest owls (Northern Hawk Owl, Great Gray Owl, Boreal Owl) likely
will stay close to breeding territories this winter. Increasing
numbers of small mammals will increase owl breeding success next
spring and summer.
FINCH NOTES
Why Bumper Tree Seed Crops? One theory of bumper crops is to ensure
adequate seed supplies will germinate above the losses to consumers
such as fungi, insects, mammals and birds. Many trees have low seed
production in most followed by periodic bumper crops producing huge
surpluses beyond the capacity of seed consumers. Tree species
normally synchronize seed crops with members of their own species
across hundreds of kilometres/miles and they sometimes synchronize
with other species as has happened this year in the Northeast. This
year's bumper crops probably resulted from last year's hot and dry
stress conditions throughout most of the Northeast. Most plants under
stress one year will produce more seed the following year as a form
of survival. The size of the seed crop the following year is largely
determined by the weather at the time of flowering and pollination.
If the weather is too cold or too hot the flower buds will not
develop properly. If there is too much rain during pollination and no
wind then poor pollination takes place. This year in the Northeast
the weather was perfect for most conifer and hardwood species.
However, white pine and red oak are two significant species with poor
seed crops in 2006 in central Ontario. Why these two species? First,
white pine cones take two summers to ripen as opposed to spruce, fir,
tamarack, cedar and hemlock which ripen in one summer. Last year
white pine grew a drought stressed crop of immature conelets with
considerable losses, resulting in a generally poor crop maturing this
year. Second, red oak had abundant flowers in May but produced few
acorns this year because the weather turned cool and wet just when
its flowers were ready to pollinate.
How Do Crossbills Find Bumper Cone Crops? Crossbills (and other
finches, particularly siskins) can locate big cone crops half a
continent or more away. Crossbills have well-developed sensory and
nervous systems and the evidence is clear that they respond to
external stimuli such as growing seed crops. The ability of
crossbills to find bumper cone crops suggests something more than
random searching, but we do not know how they do it. Ian Newton in
his classic 1972 book on "Finches" suggested that crossbills could
assess the potential of upcoming cone crops when moving between
areas. There is much to learn about nomadic winter finches.
When Do Crossbills Move To Bumper Seed Crops? Before big crossbill
nestings, they normally begin arriving in summer in areas with
developing bumper cone crops. This summer there were reports of
crossbills moving in Minnesota, northern Michigan, northeastern
Ontario (both species), central Ontario (both species in Algonquin
Park), northern New York State (Red Crossbills), Quebec (White-winged
Crossbills), northern New Hampshire (White-winged Crossbills), Maine
(White-winged Crossbills) and New Brunswick (White-winged
Crossbills). In years when either Red or White-winged Crossbills
nested in late winter and early spring in Algonquin Park, numbers
were high in the preceding late summer and fall.
When Do Crossbills Nest? The following information is courtesy of Ron
Tozer from his draft manuscript for The Birds of Algonquin Park. (A)
White-winged Crossbills nest during two main periods in Algonquin
Park. (1) The main nestings are in late December to mid-March with
fledged juveniles seen from late March to late May. (2) July and
August nestings produce young seen in early August to mid-October.
(B) Red Crossbills also nest during two main periods. (1) Adults with
dependent young have been seen in late April to mid-June from
nestings in January, February and probably March. (2) Adults with
dependent young seen from mid-August to late October are from
nestings in June and probably July. Both species nest occasionally
outside the core periods described above. Note: The presence of
independent streaked young in either species does not necessarily
indicate local breeding because the juvenile plumage can be retained
for a considerable time.
Road-killed Finches: This could be a winter when thousands of winter
finches are killed by cars in places such as Algonquin Park and the
Haliburton Highlands. Finches are attracted to the salt and sand put
on highways. They have little fear of cars. I remember one collision
that killed 63 siskins in Algonquin Park. Common Ravens have an easy
time patrolling for road kills. When you see finches on the road,
slow down, flash lights and tap your horn several times. Finches
often do not respond in time. Be careful not to confuse other drivers.
Where To See Winter Finches: This will be a good year for a winter
trip to Algonquin Park. The park is a three hours drive north of
Toronto. White-winged Crossbills and Pine Siskins should be common,
although siskins have been absent to date. Red Crossbills, Purple
Finches and Evening Grosbeaks are possible in smaller numbers. A few
Pine Grosbeaks are likely, but most will be farther north. Redpolls
should stay farther north this winter in the boreal forest. Drive
Highway 60 in early morning watching for flocks of finches attracted
to the salt and sand put on the highway to reduce accidents. There
are feeders at the Visitor Centre, which is open only on weekends in
winter. Arrangements can be made to view the feeders on weekdays. For
the latest information on finches, call the Visitor Centre at
613-637-2828 or e-mail Ron Tozer (retired park naturalist) at <rtozer
at vianet dot ca>.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I thank the many birders and staff of the Ontario Ministry of Natural
Resources (OMNR) whose composite knowledge and reports allowed me to
make reasonable predictions about finches in Ontario this fall and
winter. They are Dennis Barry (Durham Region), Shirley Davidson (OMNR
Minden), Nancy DeWitt (Alaska), Bruce Di Labio (Eastern Ontario),
Shelagh Duckett (OMNR, Thunder Bay), Chris Fagyal (Minnesota), Tyler
Hoar (Laurentians, Quebec), Michel Gosselin (Gatineau Hills, Quebec),
Charity Hendry (Angus Tree Seed Nursery), Leo Heyens (OMNR Kenora),
Brandon Holden (Algonquin Park), Peter Hynard (OMNR Haliburton), Jean
Iron (Toronto and Temagami), Bob Knudsen (Ontario Parks, Algoma),
Scott McPherson (OMNR Northeast Region), Larry Neily (Ottawa), John
Miles (Selkirk Provincial Park, Lake Erie), Brian Naylor (OMNR North
Bay) Janet Pineau (Arrowhead Provincial Park), Fred Pinto (OMNR
Sudbury), Rick Salmon (OMNR Lake Nipigon), Ron Tozer (Algonquin Park,
Marten River, Moosonee), Declan Troy (Alaska), Mike Turner (OMNR
Brancroft District), Stan Vasiliauskas (OMNR Northeast Region), Mike
Walsh (OMNR Muskoka and Parry Sound) and Matt Young (upstate New
York). Matt Young's posts this summer on New York State listservs
have been helpful. I am grateful to Ron Tozer for reviewing this post
and for information from his draft manuscript for The Birds of Algonquin Park.
RECENT FINCH FORECASTS ARCHIVED
Larry Neily has archived recent finch forecasts at
<http://ca.geocities.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/pittaway05.htm>http://ca.geocities.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/pittaway05.htm
REFERENCES
1. Bolgiano, N.C. 2004. Cause and Effect: Changes in Boreal Bird
Irruptions in Eastern North America Relative to the 1970s Spruce
Budworm Infestations. In 104th Christmas Bird Count 2003-2004 issue.
American Birds 58:26-33.
2. Newton, I. 1972. Finches. 288 pages. Collins.
3. Pittaway, R. 1998. Winter Finches. OFO News 16(1):5-7.
Ron Pittaway
8 September 2006
Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden and Toronto ON
