Gentlemen;

It looks like the RNGRs are starting to come north.  It will just be a matter 
of consistently open water in Dyers Bay to get them to you.  A giant lead (5 km 
x 50 km has opened up just off Cape Hurd, but it is much too far away to see if 
any waterfowl are using it.

Keep your eyes peeled,

Rod

Bill, I know you are away right now.




On Mar 7, 2014, at 4:48 PM, Alan Wormington <[email protected]> wrote:

> This afternoon, along with Marianne Reid, Rosemary Reid and Rick Mayos, I 
> counted a total of **36** Red-necked Grebes on Lake Erie off NE Hillman 
> Marsh.  Here there are a few leads in the otherwise frozen lake, and it is 
> also the location where 2 Red-necked Grebes were seen on March 5 (Jeremy 
> Hatt, Jeremy Bensette) and 6 on March 6 (Jeremy Hatt, Kory Renaud).
> 
> There has been considerable debate lately as to if all these widespread 
> Red-necked Grebe sightings pertain to spring migrants, or wintering birds 
> that have been frozen out of the Great Lakes.  Even before this week's 
> observations at Hillman Marsh, I concluded that these birds are wintering 
> birds that have been frozen out of their normal wintering areas elsewhere on 
> the Great Lakes.  The reasons are many:
> 
> 1--Red-necked Grebe is very rare at Point Pelee, and the previous 19 spring 
> records span the period of March 22 to May 18 inclusive; thus the current 
> birds are outside of this date range.
> 
> 2--Previous record-high count for Point Pelee was of only 3 birds (1 date in 
> spring / 2 dates in fall).
> 
> 3--Red-necked Grebes, along with other rare species such as Long-tailed Duck 
> and White-winged Scoter, have been showing up lately at southerly locations 
> such as Kentucky, where Red-necked Grebe is a real rarity.  If the grebes 
> were truly spring migrants, there is no rationale as to why they would be 
> currently appearing at these southern locations.
> 
> 4--If the Red-necked Grebes off Hillman Marsh were truly spring migrants, 
> then I would expect to also see some Horned Grebes and Pied-billed Grebes --- 
> but there are none.
> 
> 5--In regard to early Horned Grebes, some time ago I thoroughly researched 
> all record-early arrivals for Point Pelee (February 9, 10, 15, 26) and 
> without exception they ALL correlated to surges of warm air at the time, up 
> to the +10 C. temperature range (based on Windsor Historical Weather Data); 
> in other words, there has never been an early arrival of Horned Grebe at 
> Point Pelee that was associated with COLD conditions.
> 
> 6--When I formerly lived in Hamilton, I do recall some late February arrivals 
> of Red-necked Grebes, but they arrived during WARM spells and at least some 
> of the birds were in summer plumage; ALL of today's birds were 100% winter 
> plumage.  The pattern of spring occurrences are well-described in Bob Curry's 
> "Birds of Hamilton" (2006); he likewise states that spring arrivals are 
> associated with arriving warm weather.
> 
> 7--The source of these birds has been debated, and some have mentioned that 
> Red-necked Grebes do not winter on Lake Superior.  That is true, but there 
> are certainly other sources for these birds most notably Lake Huron and 
> Georgian Bay.  Another source is likely Lake Michigan --- especially 
> considering that the species is essentially a NW/SE migrant through the 
> overall Great Lakes system.  All of these water bodies are currently 
> more-or-less frozen solid.
> 
> Also at the Hillman location there was a tremendous collection of various 
> ducks, including the following:
> 
> Common Goldeneye --- 3000
> Redhead --- 1400
> Canvasback --- 80
> Long-tailed Duck --- 45
> White-winged Scoter --- 8
> 
> Hillman Marsh is north of Point Pelee, and south of Wheatley.
> 
> Alan Wormington,
> Leamington
> 
> 
> 
> 
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