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As is to be expected, the mainstream media is falling all over themselves to
congratulate Sarah Palin on her speech and to get first in line for the next
barbecue at the McCain compound(s). The consensus -- and we know just how
wrong the consensus usually is -- is that Palin's speech has consolidated
and galvanized the conservative base. The first problem with this is that
the conservative base has been mostly galvanized already. They are already
spooked to the point of wetting their pants over the made up fantasy of the
secret Muslim black man and his black militant wife turning the White House
into a flophouse for the Black Panther Party. They are already there. What
the pick did for McCain is get the last dregs of a dying voting bloc lined
up for him.

The problem is the Palin pick and the traditional Republican nonsense she
delivered has the side effect of rousting another base: Democrats. The Palin
pick was originally sold as an appeal to Hillary Clinton voters -- but what
Clinton voter with an ounce of sense could possibly pull the lever for a
ticket so proud of its knuckle dragging like McCain/Palin? Those already in
the Obama camp and responsible for the Grand Canyon sized gulf in enthusiasm
between the two candidates are just going to get fired up by Palin's speech
and the other promises of another Bush term being offered in the sparsely
occupied Xcel arena (seriously, why can't they get people to fill up all the
seats in such a small venue?).

The other group of people likely to be unintentionally fired up by McCain
and Palin are moderate, swing voters. The biggest reason Republicans lost
the House and Senate was buyers remorse from those swing voters who voted
for Bush in 2004, not realizing that the GOP's promise of protection and
sanity were washed away in Katrina and the rush to privatize social
security. The GOP is now tuned up for a replay of the 2004 strategy, but all
they have left of that coalition is their white conservative male base. The
minorities are all gone. The women have left them. Moderates have moved on.
Elections in America are not won by James Dobson and Pat Robertson acting
alone, no matter how they try to sell that to you.

In large part America is tired of fire breathing partisanship. They have
seen the 50+1 percent presidency of Bush devolve into a 24% presidency.
People, especially those in the middle, realize that a president that every
day is focused on "winning" the base turns out to be a loser with people in
the middle and in the other party. It is not a way to govern a nation -- and
it stymies the effectiveness of the presidency. People like Reagan and
Clinton had presidencies that worked for better or worse because they hadn't
written off half of the country on inauguration day.

For those who needed reminding, the Republican convention has done the job.
Mission accomplished.

*More coverage at OliverWillis.com <http://www.oliverwillis.com/>*


-- 
"Usually when people are sad, they don't do anything. They just cry over
their condition. But when they get angry, they bring about a change."
- Malcolm X, Malcolm X Speaks, 1965

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