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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Sunshine On Obama's Shoulders: If you want to know why Obama is doing his
debate prep today in -- of all places -- Tampa, FL, look no further than the
latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up in the Sunshine
State by two points, 47%-45%. Yet inside those numbers, Obama leads McCain in
the Tampa Bay area (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, and Polk counties)
by a 49%-43% margin. Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says the key to winning
Florida statewide is usually through Tampa Bay, and Obama's six-point lead in
the area explains why he's ahead in this poll. Moreover, outside of Nevada,
there is probably not another state that has been hurt more by the housing and
credit crunch, and that may be benefiting Obama right now. Also potentially
troublesome for McCain in this must-win GOP state, he leads by just six among
Hispanics (49%-43%), which in Florida is made up of a majority of Cubans. (If
Obama does pick off younger Cubans, he may close the overall gap thanks to his
large lead among non-Cuban Hispanics in the I-4 corridor.) Also, McCain's
four-point lead among seniors (48%-44%) is not as big as he needs it to be to
offset the electorate-changing demographics among blacks and young voters. So
Obama's decision to prep for Friday's debate in Florida is turning into a smart
play, huh? Any extra day in Florida might pay off.
*** Here's Your Obama Bounce: Florida isn't the only state looking good for
Obama after the political winds shifted last week. In Virginia, he's up by
three points among likely voters (49%-46%) and six points among registered ones
(50%-44%), according to a new Washington Post/ABC survey. Also, a new round of
Wall Street Journal/WashingtonPost.com/Quinnipiac polling shows Obama leading
among likelies in Colorado (49%-45%), Michigan (48%-44%), Minnesota (47%-45%),
and Wisconsin (49%-42%). The lone piece of good battleground news for McCain
comes from New Hampshire, where the latest University of New Hampshire poll has
the Arizona senator up by two points (47%-45%).
*** The Growing South vs. The Shrinking North: What's going on here? Why is
Obama seeming to make gains in some of the big growth states (see FL, NC, and
VA), but McCain is making progress -- or at least keeping it close -- in the
shrinking population states (NH, WI, PA, and MI)? The growing states have
electorates that tune in later and the swing voters in those states may also be
more sensitive to the current economy issue. Take Florida, for instance: The
state's economy was built not just on tourism but homebuilding. As for McCain's
improvement in the North and Industrial Midwest? The Republican base was really
underperforming in many of those shrinking population states. Also, Obama's
ability to change the electorates in those states is much more limited than in
places like Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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