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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** A Shift Towards Obama: As the slew of recent national and state polls
suggest, our new map reflects a shift in Obama's direction. Four new states
have been added to our Toss-up category: three red states (Florida, Indiana,
and North Carolina) and one blue state (Pennsylvania). This gives Obama a
212-174 edge, after his more narrow 233-227 lead last week. What's interesting
about these shifts is that while Obama is showing an improvement in
fast-growing states (CO, FL, NV, NC, VA), he can't seem to put away the
Northern tier states of slow-growing states (MI, PA, WI) or make progress in
what some believe is still the all-important state of OH. BTW, how is it that,
nationally, Obama's numbers are going up but he's struggling in big states like
MI, PA and OH? Is this about Obama's inability to make the sale with older
white voters? If he can change the electorates in these Southern and Western
states, he can afford to lose two of those three industrial states, but it puts
more pressure on him to win two of the following three: FL, NC and VA.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (157 electoral
votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NJ, NM OR, WA (55 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (152 votes)
Lean McCain: MO, MT (14 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN,
TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)
*** Hoosier Toss-up: The most surprising move in our map is Indiana, a state
that no one believed was a new battleground -- even when Obama's team was first
laying out its 25-30 state strategy. Indiana, in fact, is probably the surprise
of the cycle. It's a state that probably is somewhere BETWEEN Lean McCain and
Toss-up, but because the state's poll numbers look more like a Toss-up state
than a Lean McCain state, we're tipping it into the Toss-up category for now,
especially since the RNC has decided to ad the state to its TV buy list.
*** Could Election Night End At Midnight: With the Toss-up list expanding at
this point in the campaign, it gives the opportunity for either candidate to
end up winning somewhat comfortably in the Electoral College. In the last two
elections, the candidates basically split the final Toss-up states in half. Two
weeks ago, we appeared to be on a similar trajectory. Today, that doesn't seem
to be the case. The one thing the public may have learned about the candidates
is that the two have VERY divergent worldviews. There's a bright line between
these two candidates; it's not a case where both are trying to blur their views.
*** Bill Is Back . Back Again . Bill Is Back . Tell A Friend: The 42nd
president did it again: He's put into doubt how much he really supports Obama.
His non-response about whether Obama -- like McCain -- was a "great man" made
some wonder if Meet The Press was running the Darrell Hammond SNL parody
yesterday rather than the actual Bill Clinton. Seriously, watch Hammond and
Clinton side-by-side on the issue of Obama, you can't make it up.
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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