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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** A New Generation? A brand-new NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll is further evidence that
the number of new voters who turn out on Election Day could very well decide
the presidential contest. According to the survey, new and lapsed voters (those
who didn't vote in 2004) back Obama over McCain by a 2-to-1 margin, 61%-30%. If
you take the Bush (62 million) and Kerry (59 million) vote totals from 2004,
assume turnout increases by 20 million additional voters (about what it did in
2004), and assume Obama wins these additional voters 2-to-1, then Obama would
best McCain nationally by more than three million voters, 72.4 million to 68.7
million. But if turnout increases by just 10 million, then the numbers become
Obama 65.7 million, McCain 65.3 million -- a virtual tie. "An Obama victory
could very well depend on getting these folks to the polls," says NBC/WSJ
co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R). What's more, we've done the math that a 20%
turnout increase in swing states like Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia can
flip these red states from red to blue. What has to worry the Republicans is
that this is a whole generation of new voters who are leaning Democratic. What
does that mean for the GOP's future? It was a whole new generation of young
voters who grew up with Reagan who helped bring in a Republican Congress and
two terms for George W. Bush. This generation of new voters grew up Clinton,
could they be what puts the Democrats on a 20-year power trajectory?
*** Obama's Challenge: But one potential sign of worry for Obama in this
NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll is that these new/lapsed voters aren't as interested in
the election as your average voter is. In the poll, 49% of them say they're
very interested, but that's compared with 70% of all registered voters who said
this in the most recent NBC/WSJ survey. "Obama still has a significant
challenge to get [these new voters] to the polls," Newhouse observes. One note
about the methodology in the poll: It was conducted partly online and partly by
phone, the online portion was a poll of a panel survey. That said, the results
are consistent with our normal crosstabs from our NBC/WSJ poll.
*** Time To Change The Subject? The campaign trail returns to Capitol Hill, as
Biden, McCain, and Obama all come back to the Senate to vote tonight on the
bailout measure. Isn't it interesting how eager both Obama and McCain are to
see this rescue package pass? Sure, the two want it passed because they believe
the country is in a financial crisis. But both also want the issue out of the
way. Neither seems comfortable dealing with this issue (see last week's
debate), and both appear to be tired of it taking up space on the trail. For
McCain, it gets in the way of reform, experience, and tax and spending issues
that he'd like to see at the forefront. As for Obama, while his campaign has
certainly benefited politically from this mess, he would rather be talking
about health care, Bush, and overall change.
*** More Good Polling News For Obama: A new round of Quinnipiac polls for
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- taken before Friday's debate and then after
it -- shows Obama leading McCain in all three states and hitting the 50% mark
in the post-debate surveys. Before the debate, the polls had Obama up in
Florida by six points (49%-43%), up in Ohio by seven (49%-42%), and up in
Pennsylvania by six (49%-43%). And Obama increased his lead slightly after the
debate: He's up eight in Florida (51%-43%), eight in Ohio (50%-42%), and 15 in
Pennsylvania (54%-39%). A couple of points to make here: 1) This is more
evidence that Obama appears to have won Friday's debate perception-wise,
despite many analysts declaring it a draw; and 2) This poll, in addition to a
new Franklin & Marshall poll that has Obama up seven in the Keystone State,
compels us to move Pennsylvania back to Lean Obama in our next battleground
map.
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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