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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/default.aspx
>From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
FIRST THOUGHTS:
*** Obama At 264: A week after Obama's poll numbers spiked in battleground
states and after McCain's campaign announced it was retreating from Michigan,
Obama has opened up a nearly 100-point electoral-vote lead, according to NBC's
new map. Obama now has a 264-174 advantage over McCain, up from his 212-174
edge last week. The changes are all in Obama's direction: We've moved Michigan,
New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Lean Obama. Also,
every single Toss-up state is now a red state, and we are close to moving
another red state -- Missouri -- to the Toss-up column. But let's remember:
This is where the RACE IS RIGHT NOW, not where we expect the race to be in a
month. And we move a state into lean when we believe there's significant
evidence based on our reporting and a few of the public polls (we trust) that a
candidate has a lead of five points or more.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (157 electoral
votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, OR, PA, WA, WI (107 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, NV, NC, OH, VA (100 votes)
Lean McCain: MO, MT (14 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN,
TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)
*** The Path To Winning: To reach 270, Obama has to hold on to the Kerry map --
winning New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- and pick up just one more
state other than Nevada (which would get him to 269 and send the election to
the House). Here's McCain's challenge, per our map: If he's unable to turn a
blue state red, then he has to win EVERY SINGLE Toss-up to get to 270. It's
doable, but it's also the poker equivalent of drawing an inside straight. Also,
not only does McCain share Vietnam veteran status with the last two Democratic
nominees for president (Gore and Kerry); he also shares the need for a similar
Electoral College strategy. At this point in the campaign in both 2000 and
2004, Gore and Kerry seemed to have limited room to maneuver in the states.
Gore pulled out of Ohio (about this time) to focus on Florida, and Kerry pulled
out of Missouri to focus on Ohio. McCain's pullout of Michigan has the same
feel to it -- meaning it's not a bad strategy given the circumstances. The fact
is, like Gore and Kerry, McCain's got a narrow path to 270, which explains why
Sarah Palin was in Omaha yesterday and why there is more money being thrown
into Maine. McCain's campaign is not playing for a big win, just any win. And
while both Kerry and Gore did end up losing, it was VERY close. When the
environment is against you, it's not a bad strategy.
*** Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania: If there is one blue state the
McCain campaign may never give up on, it's the Keystone State. Of all the Kerry
blue states, it's the most competitive -- even right now at a time that appears
to be Obama's high-water mark. Of the remaining blue states in play,
Pennsylvania may be the most culturally sensitive and may explain why the
McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character (see below). Shifting
the campaign to character isn't about changing the national narrative; it's
about keeping the undecided column larger in Pennsylvania. Now, the character
strategy could backfire in a Florida or even a Nevada or Colorado. But
Pennsylvania, by the numbers, is worth it to McCain. Speaking of state-by-state
strategies, anyone remember the last time Obama was in Ohio?
*** To Ayers Is Human: The good news for the McCain campaign is that by using
Palin to conduct the attack, the Ayers hit on Obama got an airing over the
weekend that it hasn't received in months. (And she'll do it again today, per
remarks released by the McCain campaign.) But by unleashing a principal to
conduct the attack, the campaign is being about as transparent as it could be:
This could be their last shot to change the contours of the race. What if Ayers
had been a part of the character attack the McCain camp was conducting a few
months ago? (Remember Paris and Britney?). So is this the only choice McCain
has right now, given the circumstances of this race? Is creating character
questions the only way -- or do voters already have some questions about Obama
and they want more from McCain? By the way, while Palin's Ayers line got all
the attention this weekend, wasn't this line the tougher attack: "This is not a
man who sees America as you see it and as I see America"?
*** Tipping Your Hand: Also, who in McCain Land keeps saying these things on
background? "It's a dangerous road, but we have no choice," a top McCain
strategist told the Daily News. "If we keep talking about the economic crisis,
we're going to lose." These lines have been gold for the Obama talking-point
memos. This is the big criticism the McCain camp has received this weekend --
why are they telegraphing their attacks and telegraphing their state-by-state
decisions? Of course, Michigan Republicans could have been the ones to
initially leak the McCain pullout rumor, hoping they could guilt the McCain
campaign from actually doing it. Oops.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/10/05/2008-10-05_insults_fly_as_barack_obama__john_mccain.html?print=1&page=all
*** And Here Comes Keating: Remember the M.A.D. (mutually assured destruction)
nuclear policy with the Soviets? Well, the Obama camp is indicating they'll "go
there" if McCain wants to "go there." Today, it's launching a multimedia
campaign to resurrect McCain's involvement with the Keating Five
saving-and-loan scandal. The question we've got: Whom will the voters punish
for the negativity? The Obama camp is gambling that McCain will get blamed for
starting this fight. We'll see. Obama's brand could be just as tarnished if
he's seen as being too negative, and we've seen what the negative campaign has
done to McCain's image lately.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=CF9D90EE-18FE-70B2-A8B605018720EBCD
*** Health Care Returns: Ayres and Keating haven't been the only attacks. Over
the weekend, Team Obama went after McCain on the topic of health care, charging
that McCain's plan amounts to a tax increase on employees who get coverage from
employers. As a tactic, this has been a fairly artful hit on McCain. Of course,
as fact-checkers have pointed out, the attack is more false than truth. But as
for the tactic, the Obama campaign has been pushing pivoting to health care for
a week, hoping to be seen as the candidate of the middle ground on the issue.
First, he started running an ad about health care that emphasized he was in the
middle on the issue; now, the campaign is unleashing this attack on McCain's
plan that attempts to paint his health care philosophy as "radical." He's put
McCain on the defensive on the issue and it's an issue that was already
breaking toward the Democrats.
*** License And Registration: Today is a big day in battleground state land.
It's the final day to register to vote in many important states. This is Part
One of the Obama strategy of changing the electorates in places like Florida,
North Carolina, and Virginia. It appears the Obama effort to add more Dem
voters to the rolls has worked. Part Two of his plan is to figure out how to
get these new voters to vote.
*** Biden Off The Campaign Trail: Per NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli, Biden has canceled
his schedule through at least Tuesday following the death of his mother in law,
Bonny Jean Jacobs, after a long illness. Joe and Jill Biden remain in Delaware.
"Other details will follow," said spokesman David Wade, "but we appreciate
everyone's respect for the family's privacy during this difficult time." Palin
spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt released this statement: "Gov. Palin sends her
condolences to Jill and Joe Biden and their entire family following the passing
of Jill's mother, Bonnie Jacobs. Her thoughts and prayers are with the Bidens'
during this sad time."
*** On The Trail: McCain holds a rally in Albuquerque, NM. Obama continues his
debate prep in Asheville, NC. Palin, in Florida, has rallies in Clearwater and
Estero before hitting a fundraiser in Boca Raton.
Countdown to the second presidential debate: 1 day
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 9 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 29 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 106 days
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MCCAIN vs. OBAMA: The character debate
In her harshest attacks since being selected as McCain's running mate, Palin
sharply criticized Obama over the weekend for the Illinois senator's tenuous
ties to the '60s radical Bill Ayers. "This is not a man who sees America as you
and I see America," she said of Obama. "We see Americas as a force for good in
this world. We see an America of exceptionalism. Our opponent is someone who
sees America as imperfect enough to pal around with terrorists who target their
own country."
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/04/1492729.aspx and
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/05/1495110.aspx
The AP's Daniel writes on Palin's "palling around" comment, "[T]hough she may
have scored a political hit each time, her attack was unsubstantiated and
carried a racially tinged subtext that John McCain himself may come to regret.
Palin's words avoid repulsing voters with overt racism. But is there another
subtext for creating the false image of a black presidential nominee 'palling
around' with terrorists while assuring a predominantly white audience that he
doesn't see their America?"
"In a post-Sept. 11 America, terrorists are envisioned as dark-skinned radical
Muslims, not the homegrown anarchists of Ayers' day 40 years ago. With Obama a
relative unknown when he began his campaign, the Internet hummed with false
e-mails about ties to radical Islam of a foreign-born candidate. Whether
intended or not by the McCain campaign, portraying Obama as "not like us" is
another potential appeal to racism. It suggests that the Hawaiian-born
Christian is, at heart, un-American."
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/06/analysis_palins_words_may_backfire_on_mccain/
"Obama launched a counterattack yesterday, saying his rival was more interested
in a smear campaign than fixing the economy," Reuters writes. "But John
McCain's supporters said they would continue to push the issue of Obama's
character."
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/10/06/obama_accuses_mccain_of_smear_try/
The Politico writes that the Obama campaign today "will launch a multimedia
campaign to draw attention to the involvement of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in
the "Keating Five" savings-and-loan scandal of 1989-91, which blemished
McCain's public image and set him on his course as a self-styled reformer.
Pushing back against what it calls 'guilt-by-association' tactics by McCain,
the Obama campaign is e-mailing millions of supporters a link to a website,
KeatingEconomics.com, that will have a 13-minute documentary on the scandal
beginning at noon Eastern time on Monday. The overnight e-mails urge recipients
to pass the link on to friends."
"The Obama campaign, including its surrogates appearing on radio and
television, will argue that the deregulatory fervor that caused massive,
cascading savings-and-loan collapses in the last '80s was pursued by McCain
throughout his career, and helped cause the current credit crisis."
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=CF9D90EE-18FE-70B2-A8B605018720EBCD
McCain spokesman Brian Rogers responded, "The difference here is clear: John
McCain has been open and honest about the Keating matter, and even the
Democratic special counsel in charge recommended that Sen. McCain be completely
exonerated. By contrast, Barack Obama has been fundamentally dishonest about
his friendship and work with the unrepentant terrorist William Ayers, whose
radical group bombed the Pentagon and the U.S. Capitol. Nor has Barack Obama
come clean on his close friendship with Tony Rezko."
Per Bloomberg's Al Hunt, McCain's "best chance for a turnaround is a national
security crisis over the next four weeks that somehow persuades swing voters
that his experience and credentials are essential."
The McCain campaign is up with a new TV ad that hits Obama for once saying that
US troops in Afghanistan are "just air-raiding villages and killing civilians."
It goes: "Who is Barack Obama? He says our troops in Afghanistan are '... just
air-raiding villages and killing civilians.' How dishonorable."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjEKRIBDv6Q
But here is what Obama said back in August: "We've got to get the job done
there and that requires us to have enough troops so that we're not just
air-raiding villages and killing civilians, which is causing enormous problems
there."
And here's the AP's Pickler's fact-check: "A check of the facts shows that
Western forces have been killing civilians at a faster rate than the insurgents
have been killing civilians. As of Aug. 1, the AP count shows that while
militants killed 231 civilians in attacks in 2007, Western forces killed 286.
Another 20 were killed in crossfire that can't be attributed to one party.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai expressed his concern about the civilian deaths
during a meeting last week with President Bush."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/14/AR2007081400950.html
Meanwhile, to counter the McCain camp's Ayers attack, a new DNC Web video
recycles this 2000 quote from McCain: "Sooner or later, people are going to
figure out if all you run is negative attack ads you don't have much of a
vision for the future or you're not ready to articulate it."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHW-RO1_WN0
While some believe the Ayers attack is a little late, conservatives are happy
it's finally out there. Writes Jennifer Rubin: "Was it a mistake for the McCain
campaign to wait this late to go this route? Does it appear now to be a
last-minute attempt to change the question?
Perhaps 'yes' on both. But regardless of whether it 'works,' it is important
that
Obama and future candidates understand that their behavior (e.g. choosing to
serve on
the Woods Fund which doled out money to ACORN and a host of radical groups),
their
choice of associations (from Rezko to Ayers to Walsh) and their fundamental
beliefs
expressed through not just speeches but deeds (e.g. supporting the philosophy
and
goals of the Ayers-founded and led Annenberg Challenge) are open to scrutiny and
deserve a full vetting by the voters."
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/rubin/35561
After a round of negative ads on health care, the Boston Globe compares the two
plans:
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/05/healthcare_plans/
The Globe tries to get into the weeds of McCain's health-care plan, looking at
the pros and cons.
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/05/mccain_plan_may_cost_northeast/
MCCAIN vs. Obama II: Debate prep
The Washington Post reports McCain is doing far more serious debate prep for
Tuesday than he did for the first showdown. "In one of the most beautiful spots
on the globe, Sen. John McCain spent much of Saturday holed up in a dark hotel
conference room, engaged in intense debate preparation. At the end of it, the
GOP nominee told his aides that was crazy, and so Sunday's first round of
debate prep was held outside, near the creek by his house in the scenic Arizona
desert."
"Other than that last-minute audible, McCain appears to be engaged in
especially serious preparations for Tuesday's debate, one of his last
opportunities to change the trajectory of a race that may be slipping out of
his control. He is certainly doing more formal preparation than he did before
last month's debate in Mississippi."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/05/AR2008100502356.html
BATTLEGROUND: The registration edge
The Washington Post front-pages, "As the deadline for voter registration
arrives today in many states, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is poised to benefit
from a wave of newcomers to the rolls in key states in numbers that far
outweigh any gains made by Republicans. In the past year, the rolls have
expanded by about 4 million voters in a dozen key states -- 11 Obama targets
that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 (Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North
Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico)
plus Pennsylvania, the largest state carried by Sen. John F. Kerry that Sen.
John McCain is targeting."
"In Florida, Democratic registration gains this year are more than double those
made by Republicans; in Colorado and Nevada the ratio is 4 to 1, and in North
Carolina it is 6 to 1. Even in states with nonpartisan registration, the trend
is clear -- of the 310,000 new voters in Virginia, a disproportionate share
live in Democratic strongholds. Republicans acknowledge the challenge but say
Obama still has to prove he can get the new voters to the polls."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/05/AR2008100502524.html?hpid=topnews
COLORADO: The newest numbers from Mason Dixon and the Denver Post show a dead
heat in the Centennial State, with Obama and McCain tied at 44%-44% among
registered voters. "Among unaffiliated voters, 49 percent favor Obama and 31
percent favor McCain. A whopping 9 percent in this group are going for a third
party, and 11 percent of unaffiliateds are undecided . "One thing Coloradans
are almost in unison on: The economy is the top concern, at 77 percent. Every
other issue was below 6 percent."
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10639338
FLORIDA: The Miami Herald looks at the state's vote-rich I-4 corridor. "Nearly
one out of five of the state's unaffiliated voters live in this swath between
Tampa and Daytona Beach, and an even higher percentage are considered
''persuadable'' Democrats and Republicans."
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/713624.html
Both veep candidates hit the Sunshine State this week.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/714302.html
INDIANA: Obama visits the state Wednesday.
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081004/NEWS0502/810040479/1008/LOCAL19
GEORGIA: Here's a pretty good explanation of the potential surge in
African-American
voters that's coming on E-Day, at least in Georgia. "Secretary of State Karen
Handel is on record saying that there is no giant surge of voter registration
in Georgia - and in the largest context, she's right. Newly released figures
from her office show that 406,379 new voters registered between Jan. 1 to Sept.
30. Four years ago, the number was 371,932. Overall, that's a 9 percent
increase from '04 to '08 - hardly surprising in a presidential race with no
incumbent. Barack Obama or no Barack Obama."
"But this is far from the whole story. Those same numbers show that 164,859 of
those new voters are African-American. And 176,570 of those new voters are
white. That's a 27 percent increase in new voter registration for
African-Americans over '04, and a 13.7 percent decrease in new voter
registration for whites over '04."
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/10/04/more_on_an_obama_surge_black_g.html
MICHIGAN: Some day, we're going to get the full story behind the leaking of the
McCain decision to pull out of Michigan. Couldn't they have done it more
quietly? Who decided not to keep this decision so quiet? Did some Michigan
Republican folks believe there was a chance that by going public, they'd scare
the campaign from pulling out? And then the snowball? This has been a near-P.R.
disaster for the McCain campaign. What's more, will this decision cost the GOP
one to two House seats?
At least one Republican in Michigan is livid about McCain's pullback from the
state. "He has given up on our State?" writes a county GOP chair in an email
obtained by Politico's Jonathan Martin over the weekend. "What a total and
complete crock of crap. Again, I think McCain owes the Republicans and the
People of Michigan a HUGE APOLOGY. SOON!"
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/Mich_GOP_county_chair_calls_McCain_move_complete_crock_of_crap.html?showall
MINNESOTA: A new Star-Tribune poll shows a commanding lead for Obama: 55%-37%.
"That's a huge difference from the last Minnesota Poll, conducted in September,
which showed the race dead even, with each candidate backed by 45 percent of
likely voters."
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/30470234.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUec7PaP3E77K_0c::D3aDhUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiU
NEBRASKA: The Washington Post looks at the unlikely corner of Nebraska that's
suddenly become the target of the presidential campaigns. "Where Republicans
see folly, the Obama camp spots an opening. Unlike most of Nebraska, the 2nd
District has a significant minority population, with a population that is 10
percent black and 6 percent Hispanic -- groups that strongly back Obama."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/05/AR2008100502174.html?hpid=topnews
NEW MEXICO: Word is that Obama's once insurmountable lead, while still
significant,
doesn't seem so insurmountable. Plus, it's not an expensive state. McCain's
event
there Monday may be about testing to see if some McCain presence will shrink
Obama's
lead further. If so, look for an increased effort in the state in the following
weeks.
Speaking of. McCain trails Obama by five in New Mexico, according to a new
Albuquerque Journal poll.
http://haussamen.blogspot.com/2008/10/mccain-returns-to-abq-as-poll-puts-him.html
OHIO: A Columbus Dispatch poll has Obama up 49%-42% among likely voters. It
"was conducted Sept. 24 to Oct. 3 by mail among 2,262 likely Ohio voters." An
August Dispatch poll had Obama up 42%-41%.
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/05/newspaper_poll_shows_obama_up_7_points_in_ohio/
Bruce Springsteen held a concert for Obama at Ohio State -- where early voting
is underway.
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/05/bruce_springsteen_rocks_for_obama_at_ohio_state/
PENNSYLVANIA: A group of students found a big advantage for Obama when they
fanned out across the Philadelphia suburbs over the weekend to get a sense of
the support both candidates are getting in counties like Bucks and Chester.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/politics/Obama_leads_in_the_suburbs.html
VIRGINIA: Politico's Martin talks to a cadre of the big players in the Virginia
GOP, and finds some anxiety about the resources John McCain is -- and isn't --
putting into the state. "With Barack Obama treating the Old Dominion like a
battleground state and reliable polls showing a margin-of-error race there,
some are cautioning that McCain is making a critical mistake by allowing the
Democratic nominee to outpace him in terms of visits and resources committed."
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=CCAF5A4E-18FE-70B2-A8996BF8627EAB3E
McCain's brother called Northern Virginia "communist country."
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/05/mccains_brother_says_n_va_communist_country/
MCCAIN: Here comes the backseat driving
Does the McCain campaign need to brace itself for another round of GOP backseat
driving? It appears so, since Karl Rove kicked off the backseat driving
yesterday on
"Fox News Sunday." http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/rubin/35581
A day after Sarah Palin accused Barack Obama of 'palling around with
terrorists,' Obama struck back Sunday with a tough ad painting John McCain as
'erratic.'. One-time McCain adviser Mike Murphy told NBC's 'Meet the Press'
he's worried because 'it's McCain's barn that is on fire. McCain is defending
states like North Carolina, Virginia, Florida that he has to win.' 'I think
McCain can win, but the fact is, if the election were held today, he'd lose,
and I think he's on a losing path,' Murphy added. 'This trendline is very, very
bad.'"
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/10/05/2008-10-05_insults_fly_as_barack_obama__john_mccain.html
In his New York Times column, Bill Kristol interviews Sarah Palin and asks her
why Rev. Wright isn't more of an issue than Ayers. "She didn't hesitate: 'To
tell you the truth, Bill, I don't know why that association isn't discussed
more, because those were appalling things that that pastor had said about our
great country, and to have sat in the pews for 20 years and listened to that -
with, I don't know, a sense of condoning it, I guess, because he didn't get up
and leave - to me, that does say something about character. But, you know, I
guess that would be a John McCain call on whether he wants to bring that up.'"
"I guess so. And I guess we'll soon know McCain's call on whether he wants to
bring Wright up - perhaps at his debate with Obama Tuesday night."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/opinion/06kristol.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
OBAMA: Good Will Hunting
Based on the Newsweek report about cash contributions that violated the
individual donation limits, the RNC filed a formal FEC complaint against the
Obama campaign. Is there a $200 loophole in the campaign finance system? Could
someone, over time, funnel thousands of unaccounted for dollars to a campaign
by simply giving $199 in cash numerous times? Also, if T-shirt sales are
donations, how is that applied to the $2,300/individual limit? This FEC
complaint, while having little impact on Obama this cycle, probably ought to be
taken seriously as to close a loophole that's clearly there.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/us/politics/06donate.html
Speaking of fundraising, here's something we ought to keep an eye on over the
next few weeks: With the economic downturn, there might be a real problem
raising money. Apparently, even Hollywood is feeling the economic downturn.
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117993412.html?categoryid=1019&cs=1
"His family last week told The Post they were amazed that Smith - a former
volunteer for Obama who has donated $550 to his various campaigns - was trusted
with the hefty state grant to build a botanic garden in his blighted South Side
Chicago neighborhood," the NY Post writes. "Land earmarked for the plan is
still overgrown and covered in garbage - eight years after then-state Sen.
Obama steered the pork-barrel funds to the program. The Illinois attorney
general last month launched an investigation to find out what the Chicago
Better Housing Association did with the cash."
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10062008/news/politics/family_slams_o_charity_big_132273.htm
PALIN: The Magnificent Seven
The AP on the latest development in the Troopergate scandal: "Seven aides to
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin have reversed course and agreed to testify in an
investigation into whether the Republican vice presidential nominee abused her
powers by firing a commissioner who refused to dismiss her former
brother-in-law."
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/05/employees_will_testify_in_palin_probe/
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