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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS: Needing a game-changer
NASHVILLE -- McCain heads into tonight's debate here down in the polls and in
need of a game-changer. Three weeks after the Wall Street crisis began, the
latest NBC/WSJ poll has Obama up six points, 49%-43%, which equals his biggest
lead over McCain in the survey; two weeks ago, Obama was up two in the poll,
48%-46%. As NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) put it: "John McCain finds
himself in a hole no candidate wants to be in" -- behind with less than a month
to go. Remember, while six points might seem like a small lead, it can
translate into an Electoral College landslide if this is what the margin is on
Election Day. What's more, while pundits (including us) couldn't agree who won
the first two debates, the poll makes it crystal clear who won: Obama-Biden. By
a 50%-29% margin, voters said that the Dems bested their GOP counterparts at
the first two debates. In fact, it appears the combination of the economic
downturn and the debate performances have just served as a double stomach punch
to McCain. What will be the verdict for Debate No. 3? And just curious, are
voters grading the debates on a curve, meaning McCain and Palin have more to
prove with voters while Obama-Biden get the "change" benefit of the doubt which
then translates into easy debate poll victories?
*** The Negative Turn: It's also worth pointing out that McCain's negatives
have increased as he's gone on the attack against Obama. In March, his
fav/unfav was 49%-27%; now it's 43%-39% (+4). By comparison, Obama has gone
from 51%-28% in March to 52%-35% (+17). In addition, Obama's numbers among
independents have shot up in the latest NBC/WSJ poll: Two weeks ago, McCain led
him here, 51%-38%, and now it's Obama up four, 42%-38%. All this highlights a
big problem for McCain: It's increasingly harder for him to go negative, even
though he's now embarked on that path. And it might be hard for him to go
negative at tonight's debate given its town hall format. McCain's tone and body
language tonight might be more important than anything he says. It's a tough
position McCain finds himself in: On one hand, the temptation to make Obama
unelectable and drive home that point is going to be great tonight. But if
McCain does it in a way that makes it easy for Obama to paint him as out of
touch on the economy, he could have a hard time closing the gap. That said,
what if McCain finds a big econ issue that paints Obama in a corner and forces
a big idea debate on McCain's turf? That would be the ideal solution for
McCain, the problem is finding that issue.The 90-minute debate begins at 9:00
pm ET from here at Belmont University. It's moderated by NBC's Tom Brokaw.
*** It's The Economy, Part 64: Consider in the NBC/WSJ poll: 59% say "economic
issues" are most important. And when you combine that number with the 15% who
picked "domestic issues including health care, education and the environment,"
nearly three in four voters care about issues hitting them at home -- rather
than the 16% who pick foreign policy and the 8% who pick social issues. Among
the 59% who said economic issues, Obama leads McCain by 15 points (54%-39%). A
few other notes from the survey: among "high interest" voters (we are not
calling them "likely voters" just yet), Obama leads by nine points, 52%-43%.
But there's one bright spot for McCain: In the battleground states (which in
this survey we define as: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA and VA), he's
tied with Obama at 46%-46%. So as we noted yesterday, adopting the Kerry-Gore
strategy of finding the narrow path to 270 will likely get McCain to close this
gap sooner than the national polls might pick up.
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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