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--- Begin Message ---
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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Obama Expands His Lead: Three weeks until Election Day, Obama now holds a
more than 100-vote lead in NBC's latest electoral map. He's ahead of McCain
264-163, with 111 votes in the Toss-up column. Last week, Obama was up 264-174.
Our changes: We moved Missouri from Lean McCain to Toss-up; Oregon and
Washington from Lean Obama to Likely Obama; and West Virginia from Likely
McCain to Lean McCain. Something's happening in West Virginia -- yes, West
Virginia -- because of the economic angst. Obama's been buying a bunch of TV
time in markets that bleed into West Virginia, and the numbers have been
closing for a time. By the way, political analyst Charlie Cook is moving West
Virginia all the way to Toss-up. If that state is on the move, could Arkansas
be far behind? Both are states that can show Democratic movement in a bad
economic environment.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175
electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)
Lean McCain: MT, WV (8 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN,
TX, UT, WY (155 votes)
*** "We've Got Them Just Where We Want Them": With McCain down in the national
polls -- 10 points (53%-43%) in the latest Washington Post/ABC survey --
McCain's campaign says the Arizona senator will unveil a new stump speech that
casts him as the underdog and as a fighter. "Let me give you the state of the
race today," he is expected to say. "We have 22 days to go. We're six points
down. The national media has written us off. Sen. Obama is measuring the
drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid to raise taxes, increase
spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and
concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we've
got them just where we want them." More: "What America needs in this hour is a
fighter; someone who puts all his cards on the table and trusts the judgment of
the American people. I come from a long line of McCains who believed that to
love America is to fight for her. I have fought for you most of my life. There
are other ways to love this country, but I've never been the kind to do it from
the sidelines."
*** Running Against One-Party Rule: It's not quite a Bulworth moment (something
many Republicans were kinda hoping for), but McCain is trying to goose the "can
he comeback?" storyline with a speech that reminds voters of one-party rule in
DC. With some Republicans (most notably Lee Terry of Nebraska) trying to latch
on to Obama's coattails, it appears the mixed message that some feared might
happen is now going to happen. With Republicans up and down the ballot all
fending for themselves, does the party risk giving off the desperation whiff?
Where are the stories of Democrats running away from Obama? And while we're not
seeing Republicans fleeing from McCain just yet, they all are fleeing from Bush
Republicanism as their only means of surviving. As we noted last week, it was
only a matter of time before both the top of the GOP ticket would start running
against the Dem Congress and the Republicans down the ballot would start
running on the "check on Obama" message.
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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