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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Obama Widens His Lead: With 13 days to go, Obama has opened up his biggest
lead over McCain in the NBC/WSJ poll, 52%-42%, which is up four points from his
lead two weeks ago. This survey -- conducted after the three presidential
debates and in the midst of the Colin Powell endorsement -- suggests that these
events have made voters more comfortable with the idea of Obama as president.
For one thing, 48% say they have confidence in Obama serving as commander in
chief, which is nearly identical to the 50% who said the same of McCain.
Moreover, 56% say they are either "optimistic or confident" or "satisfied and
hopeful" that Obama would do a good job as president; only 44% say that of
McCain. And now 55% believe that Obama shares their background and values,
which isn't far off from the 57% who believe the same about McCain. Obama never
had to best McCain in these categories; he just had to meet a certain threshold
with voters, which he has seemed to accomplish in our poll.
*** McCain's Indie Problem: If a political observer jumped into a time machine
and traveled from January 2008 to today, he might be startled to see McCain's
current performance among independents in the latest NBC/WSJ poll. He trails
Obama here by 12 points, 49%-37%. What's striking (and ironic) is that McCain's
political brand has been forged by his stature with independents -- and it's
what always made him the strongest Republican to run in this cycle. Conversely,
McCain is doing very well with the GOP base in the poll. He's winning handily
among evangelicals, small town/rural voters, and folks in the South. Did McCain
make a miscalculation by trying to please the base -- with Palin, taxes,
abortion, judges -- instead of trying to win the middle? As NBC/WSJ co-pollster
Peter Hart (D) puts it, "If you don't win the middle in America, you don't win
the election." If there is an upside to McCain's focus on the base, it's that
it may prevent any electoral landslide.
*** McCain's Palin Problem: Speaking of Palin, her numbers have plummeted in
our poll. For the first time, she has a net-negative fav/unfav rating
(38%-47%), the only principal to carry that distinction. What's more, 55% think
she's unqualified to serve as president if the need arises, which is a
troublesome number given McCain's age. (Have worries about McCain's age risen
because of Palin? Seems to be the case). In fact, her qualifications to be
president rank as voters' top concern about a McCain presidency -- ahead of
continuing Bush's policies. (Who would have ever thought that Palin would be a
bigger problem for McCain than Bush would?) And while inexperience turns out to
be voters' top concern about an Obama presidency, it's probably not helpful to
the McCain camp that inexperience is now a liability for its ticket, too. If
these poll numbers weren't bad enough for Palin, now comes a Politico report
noting that the RNC spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize her at
high-end stores like Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue -- a story that could
further add to the perception that Palin isn't a serious candidate. The
campaign released a statement last night that seemed to confirm the report:
"With all of the important issues facing the country right now, it's remarkable
that we're spending time talking about pantsuits and blouses. It was always the
intent that the clothing go to a charitable purpose after the campaign." A few
questions here from NBC's Andrea Mitchell: Did the campaign announce that she
was donating to clothes to charity because there's a potential tax problem
here? And is Palin permitted to accept these kinds of gifts under Alaska ethics
laws?
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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