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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Obama Crosses 270: After moving the battlegrounds of Colorado and Virginia
from Toss-up to Lean Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee now has crossed
the 270 Electoral Vote threshold in NBC's electoral map. One week before the
election, Obama leads McCain 286-163, up from his 264-163 advantage a week ago.
As we pointed out on Friday, the significance of moving Colorado and Virginia
into Obama's column is this: If Obama wins those two states, plus Nevada, he
can still get to 270 -- even if he loses Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In
addition to the Colorado and Virginia changes, we have moved McCain's home
state of Arizona from Likely McCain to Lean McCain, a tip to the reality that
Arizona, without McCain on the ticket, would have been a contested
battleground. A new poll conducted by a Democratic group found McCain with just
a four-point lead over Obama in the state, 48%-44%. This comes on the heels of
private polls we have seen that show the presidential contest to be tight in
Arizona. In addition, McCain's collapse in Hispanic support is contributing to
this downturn here as well. Of course, it's worth pointing out that our map
reflects how things stand right now. Yet, with eight days remaining, McCain is
running out of time to change the dynamics of the race.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175
electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, VA, WI (111 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH (89 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, MT, NE 02, ND, SD, WV (30 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK,
SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)
*** Obama's Closer: In a speech from Canton, OH that his campaign is billing as
his closing argument, Obama today will contend that his candidacy represents a
change from President Bush's economic policies and philosophy -- which he says
McCain will follow. "When it comes to the economy, when it comes to the central
issue of this election, the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this
President every step of the way," he will say, according to excerpts of the
speech. What's more, Obama will call for changing the tone in Washington. (But
haven't we heard this before? Both Bush 43 and Clinton 42 promised this.)
"[T]he change we need isn't just about new programs and policies. It's about a
new politics -- a politics that calls on our better angels instead of
encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have
to ourselves and one another." What's interesting here is his avoidance of
mentioning the potential for unchecked Dem political power in Congress. Also,
he's trying to turn the "readiness" tables on McCain by painting him as "risky"
because of his shared philosophy with Bush. By the way, as for the unchecked
power, did Hillary Clinton and Al Franken accidentally do the GOP a favor with
the TV ad she's running for him that touts 60 Senate seats and the potential
for Franken to be No. 60?
*** McCain Meets The Press: As Obama today attempts to paint McCain as an
extension of Bush's economic policies, the Arizona senator didn't help himself
much on this front when he said this on NBC's Meet the Press: "So do [Bush and
I] share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course." McCain then
added, "But I've, I've stood up against my party, not just President Bush, but
others; and I've got the scars to prove it, including taking up, with Ted
Kennedy, immigration reform, knowing full well that that was going to hurt my
chances in the primaries. So I could go down a long list of issues with you."
One of those issues that McCain didn't mention in the interview was his votes
against the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts. In fact, those votes could have been
McCain's rebuttal to Obama's charge that the Arizona senator is in lockstep
with Bush on economic matters. Ponder this what-if: What if McCain, after
clinching the GOP nomination in March, had moved to the center on economic
policy, saying that now -- with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as a
rising national debt -- wasn't the time to extend Bush's tax cuts for the
well-off? Or what if he picked some other economic policy to distance himself
from Bush? There will be a lot of Wednesday-morning quarterbacking next week,
if he loses, about how McCain spent the first four months of his general
election campaign. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27388251/
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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