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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Another Punch In The Gut: For the GOP, yesterday must have felt like déjà
vu all over again. The guilty verdict in Sen. Ted Stevens' trial -- just one
week before Election Day -- was yet another stomach-punch to the GOP, and it
was reminiscent of how things went for the GOP in late 2006, when everything
seemed to go wrong. The first sitting senator in nearly 30 years to be
convicted just so happens to be a Republican. And with everything else seeming
to wrong for the party right now, the Stevens news is like kicking a wounded
dog; it just further tarnishes the GOP brand. By the way, it's worth pointing
out the two very different statements that Alaska's other top Republican
politicians -- Sarah Palin and Sen. Lisa Murkowski -- released yesterday
regarding the Stevens verdict. Palin called on Stevens "to the right thing,"
saying: "The verdict shines a light though on the corrupting influence of the
big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much
of our state. And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was
elected to fight." On the other hand, Murkowski stood by Stevens. "Sen. Stevens
has announced that he will appeal the verdict. I look forward to having justice
served. Ted has asked for Alaskans and his Senate colleagues to stand with him
as he pursues his legal rights. He stood with Alaskans for 40 years, and I plan
to continue to stand with him." Just curious: Has Palin voted? If not, who will
she vote for in the Senate race? And is she supporting Don Young in the House
race?
*** End Of An Era: Stevens' guilty verdict not only all but ended the career of
the Senate's longest-serving Republican; it also signaled the end of an era for
Senate Republicans. Think about it -- next year, we could see a Senate where
there is no Trent Lott (already retired), Pete Domenici (retiring), John Warner
(retiring), Stevens (who will most likely lose next week), and possibly Mitch
McConnell (who's in the fight of his political life down in Kentucky). And
nevermind the possibility that the GOP Senate caucus won't have a Dole, either.
That is A LOT of Republican seniority and institutional knowledge that
will/might not be there when the next Congress reconvenes. Of course, it also
opens the door to for a new generation of GOP senators. Thune? Corker? Burr?
DeMint? Kyl? The last time we saw this kind of seniority sea change in the
Senate was in 1980, when the Democrats lost lions like Bayh, Church, Culver,
and McGovern.
*** (Big) Sky's The Limit? A new round of NBC/Mason-Dixon polls shows Obama
leading by 11 points in New Hampshire (50%-39%), Obama and McCain tied in North
Carolina (47%-47%), and McCain only up four in Montana (48%-44%). This Montana
poll, in fact, comes just as we've learned that the Republican National
Committee's independent expenditure arm will begin advertising there tomorrow.
That's right, folks -- Montana is still in play, and the race there could even
be closer than the poll suggests when 1) popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is
at the top of the ticket; 2) Sen. Max Baucus (D) is cruising to re-election;
and 3) the state GOP there is in a mess.
*** Speaking of the Map: While there is going to be a lot of deserved focus on
Obama's ability to add to new states to the battleground, it is noteworthy that
in this last week, one state is first among equals in the campaign's focus and
that's an old reliable battleground state: Florida. The Obama campaign is
flooding the state with candidate and surrogate visits. The first Obama-Bill
Clinton event is set for tomorrow in Florida (and that follows an Obama-Hillary
Clinton Florida event last week). Joe Biden was there yesterday, Obama will be
there for two days this week; Caroline Kennedy was there yesterday. It's
clearly the state the Obama campaign sees as the McCain backbreaker. The
electoral map message an Obama victory in Florida would send shivers down
Republican spines. The Democrats already have a big state advantage with CA,
NY, IL, PA, MI, and NJ. Add FL and what big states do the Republicans have left
to count on besides TX? Republicans better hope this is a one-time phenomenon.
But over the last decade, the trend has been in favor of the Democrats in the
growth states. That's a flip from the decade before when it was the GOP that
was showing strength in the growth states.
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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