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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Approaching The Witching Hour: We now have a good idea of where the two
campaigns will spend their last four days until Election Day. Today, Obama
campaigns in Iowa and Indiana, and in between the events he heads home to
Chicago to spend part of Halloween with his daughters. On Saturday, he travels
to Nevada (Henderson), Colorado (Pueblo), and Missouri (Springfield). On
Sunday, it's an entire day in Ohio (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati). And on
Monday, per the New York Times, Obama hits Florida (Jacksonville), North
Carolina, and Virginia (Manassas). As for McCain, he spends his entire Friday
in Ohio; campaigns in Virginia and Pennsylvania on Saturday; then he's
reportedly hitting New Hampshire; and on Monday, he's supposed to barnstorm
through six states (including western ones like Nevada), with a final stop in
-- get this -- Arizona.
*** Is McCain Michael Myers Or Jason -- You Just Can't Get Rid Of Him? We've
heard plenty of rhetoric that McCain is closing in on Obama's poll lead. But is
that really happening? One poll definitely moved: In Fox's survey, Obama's lead
is now just three points, down from nine last week (yet some have noted that
the poll's weighting was changed). But other polls show a pretty static race.
Gallup's registered-voter model has Obama up eight points, after it was nine
the day before; the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll is unchanged, 52%-44%;
and Hotline/Diageo has the race at 48%-42%, down one point from the day before.
Oh, and then there is the brand-new New York Times/CBS poll, which has Obama
ahead by 11 points, 51%-40%, essentially unchanged from its last poll that
showed Obama with a 13-point lead. The good news for both campaigns: There are
enough state polls out there -- including some by some questionable pollsters
-- with enough diverse results that both campaigns can latch on to something
that makes them feel better.
*** Burying The Competition: Was the Obama infomercial worth the millions the
campaign spent on it? It looks like it. Almost 34 million people watched the
30-minute advertisement. In fact, as the Times reported, that total easily
surpassed the audience for the final game of the World Series and last season's
finale of American Idol. Also, the networks that ran the advertisement beat the
one that didn't. Nearly 10 million people tuned into NBC to watch the ad; 8.6
million saw it on CBS; 7.1 million watched it on FOX; and the rest watched the
infomercial on cable. By comparison, 6.2 million tuned into ABC's "Pushing
Daisies." Poor "Pushing Daisies"; it's actually not a bad show, but it's one of
those shows that would be more successful on HBO or Showtime. (We know, save
the TV criticism for Shales, sorry Tom; but he does occasionally jump into
politics, so fair play, right?)
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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