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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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*** Our Final Map: With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map
shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead
over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved
Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean
McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and
New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago)
from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here's where we stand:
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT,
WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (24 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK,
SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)
*** Good News And Bad News: Our new map comes at the same time as the release
of a final round of Mason-Dixon polls, and they contain both good news and bad
news for the candidates. The numbers: Obama is ahead five points in Colorado
(49%-44%), two in Florida (47%-45%), four in Nevada (47%-43%), and three points
in Virginia (47%-44%). Meanwhile, McCain is up one in Missouri (47%-46%), three
in North Carolina (49%-46%), and two in Ohio (47%-45%). The good news for Obama
-- and bad news for McCain -- is that if Obama holds on to his leads in CO, FL,
NV, and VA, he's going to easily win on Tuesday, racking up well over 300
electoral votes. But the bad news for Obama -- and good news for McCain -- is
that Obama is below 50% in all of these polls. And if undecideds break
decisively for McCain, that's how he would pull off the upset. But if the 2004
presidential contest taught us anything, it's that turnout sometimes is more
important than undecided voters. In our final NBC/WSJ poll before the 2004
election, Bush held a one-point lead over Kerry, 48%-47%. And there was the
assumption that undecideds breaking for the challenger over the incumbent would
propel Kerry to victory. But that didn't happen. By the way, our final NBC/WSJ
poll comes out first thing tomorrow morning.
*** Southern Discomfort: While everyone is trend-spotting demographics and
geography through the Obama prism, don't forget to examine the state of the
Republican Party through those same lenses. In the House, for instance, the
grim picture for the GOP is on full display. According to one Cook Report
estimate by House editor David Wasserman, the GOP -- in a worst-case scenario
-- could have as few as 16 members left in the Northeast (versus 79 for the
Dems). In the South, the GOP lead in House seats could be in single digits,
74-68. In the Midwest, 61-39 could be the House seat split. And finally, out
West, powered by the Dem strength on the Pacific coast, the Dem lead could
66-32. Step back and look at those numbers: Nearly half of the House GOP caucus
may be rooted in the South. Just as it wasn't healthy for the Democratic Party
when it appeared rooted in just the Northeast and the Left coast, neither is it
good for the GOP to be seen as simply a regional political party.
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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