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First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Obama Has A Clear Lead: With just a day left until Election Day, Obama
holds an eight-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 51%-43%, according
to the final national NBC/WSJ poll before the election. That's down slightly
from Obama's 53%-to-42% advantage from almost two weeks ago. Still, to put his
current lead into perspective, the last NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004
presidential election showed Bush with a slim one-point edge over Kerry,
48%-47%. Bush went on to win that election, 51%-48%. Looking inside the
crosstabs, Obama's advantage is largely based on his overwhelming success with
African Americans (winning them 90%-3%), Latinos (68%-27%), and 18 to 34 year
olds (59%-38%). It's about as solid of a three-legged support stool as any
candidate could ask for. Obama also wins independents (48%-38%), blue-collar
voters (51%-44%), suburban voters (49%-44%), and Catholics (49%-46%). McCain,
meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78%-19%), those 65 and older
(53%-40%), white men (54%-42%), and white women (48%-47%). One more thing: 30%
say they've already voted, and those voters break by an identical 51%-43%
margin. One thing that might keep the McCain folks somewhat hopeful about our
numbers: We have Democrats with a +10 advantage on party ID; McCain's team
believes the electorate won't produce that margin tomorrow.
*** Liking McCain But Loving Obama: The poll also shows that McCain and Obama
are pretty well liked by voters. McCain has a 47%-39% fav/unfav rating, while
Obama's is larger at 56%-35%. But what's striking is the intensity gap --
almost twice as many respondents (44%) rate Obama "very positive" than they do
for McCain (24%). In short, McCain's supporters like him, but Obama's LOVE him.
Think about that 44% number for a minute: Obama's overall ballot number is 51%,
meaning that 86% of Obama's supporters have a VERY positive view of him. Not
since Reagan in 1980 has a base of supporters loved its nominee so much. Also,
for the second-straight NBC/WSJ poll, Palin has a net-negative fav/unfav
(39%-48%), while Biden has a net-positive one (50%-30%). In fact, if you add up
Obama's and Biden's favorable scores, you get 106; for McCain-Palin, it's 86.
*** The Comfort Factor: In addition to finding Obama likeable, voters are
becoming more and more comfortable with him and the idea of him becoming
president. Over the course of this general election, NBC/WSJ co-pollsters Peter
Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R) have identified one key question in the poll for
Obama: Do you identify with his background and values? And Obama has always
trailed McCain on this score. Until now. In our new poll, an identical 57% say
they identify with the candidates' background and values. What's more, 58% say
they're "optimistic and confident" or "satisfied and hopeful" that Obama would
do a good job if he becomes president; 46% say that of McCain. And 42% say they
have either a great deal of confidence or quite a bit of confidence that Obama
will be able to get the nation's economy back on track. That's compared with
just 27% who say that about McCain.
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on
MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now at
http://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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