seorang ekonom dari ABN AMRO belanda dalam risetnya di
bulan March 2006 menyatakan bahwa ekonomi dunia akan
mendapat banyak manfaat dari kemenanangan italy di
world cup 2006...

italy ternyata menjadi favorit para ekonom, apakah
memang ada konspirasi untuk memenangkan italy sbg
juara dunia sehingga ekonomi dunia membaik...?? who
knows ... :)))


Amsterdam, 22 March 2006

ABN AMRO economists: World economy will benefit most
from Italian World Cup win

The world economy will benefit most from an Italian
victory at the football World Cup in June/July,
according to ABN AMRO's economists in their
'Soccernomics 2006' study, which they have prepared –
both for education and enjoyment – for the third time.
With the World Cup in Germany only three months away,
the ABN AMRO Economics Department has made a
prediction, as it did in the run-up to previous major
football competitions, as to which country would
benefit the global economy the most if its team were
to win the World Cup. This time it is Italy.

Although the direct economic impact (higher sales in
bars and cafes) is marginal, good performances on the
pitch can certainly stimulate an economy. In the past,
countries winning the World Cup added around 0.7% to
their economic growth. And at the last three
tournaments the winning country's stock market
considerably outperformed the losing finalist's
market. On average there was 10% positive effect in
the winner and a 25% negative effect in the loser.

According to Charles Kalshoven of the ABN AMRO
Economics Department: 'The Italian economy is hampered
by an inflexible labour market and deteriorating
competitiveness. An Italian victory in the World Cup
final would boost consumer and producer confidence,
and thus lead to more spending and investment. 'Made
in Italy' would also reap more benefits abroad. This
may well push economic growth upwards, which would
then give the government scope to introduce economic
reforms.'

ABN AMRO's economists take as their starting point the
imbalances in the world economy, above all the US
current account deficit. Additional growth in Europe
would cushion the inevitable correction to this
situation. To achieve this, a major European country
needs to win the World Cup to spark an economic
upswing. The 'economic final' in soccernomics should
therefore be between Germany and Italy, with Italy
lifting the World Cup.

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